If Operation Barbarossa had started one year (1942) later in WW2?

If Operation Barbarossa had started one year later (1942) how many modern warplanes and modern tanks (T-34/KV-1) would the Soviet Union have had?

 

Lots

Please forgive a little facetiousness; I don't have an estimate beyond what they actually produced. They wouldn't have either the urgency of wartime or the disruption caused by relocating their factories.

Just as important as numbers would be the reorganization of their mechanized forces, which was just getting underway in 1941. Most of the ~30 mechanized corps in existence had only started organizing since the beginning of the year.

The Germans by contrast had little reason to think their Panzer III/IV combination was inadequate, although they were upgrading the III with the long 50mm gun.

Also the Red Air Force was receiving a new generation of inline-engine fighters - MiG-3, LaGG-3, and Yak-1 - comparable to German or Western types. In June 1941 their fighter force was about 1/2 Policarpov I-16s and 1/4 I-15/153 biplanes. The Il-2 ground attack aircraft was also coming into service.

 

Time was not on the German's side. Long debate whether the 3 month's delay altered a German victory in the East but as mentioned above, the Soviets would have been better armed and perhaps better trained.

 

Found a chart, It looks like in 1941, Soviet Union manufacturers about 3000 T-34, I'm assuming a large chuck of that came after June of 1941.
As tank production would have been accelerated after Germany launched the attack.
So, maybe by March 1942 (if Hitler had waited until then), then maybe around 4-5,000 T-34/76 could have been built.

 

On the flip side, the Germans would have one more year of production. In June 1941 they had 21 panzer divisions. The new standard organization with one panzer regiment (two battalions) called for 200 tanks, about 3/4 of them PzIIIs, but the majority in service were PzI, II, 35t, or 38t. The 1000th PzIV came off the production line late in 1941 and the 3000th PzIII in early 1942, so the divisions could have been fully equipped by mid-1942, with tanks in reserve or for forming additional units.

Six of the divisions had Czech 35ts or 38ts in lieu of PzIIIs (these also had three panzer battalions). The 38t was still in production; historically this was changed to 75/76mm tank destroyers after contact with the T-34s and KVs, which in our scenario would not occur until mid-1942.

A higher proportion of their motorized infantry would be mounted in halftracks, and there would also be more trucks for combat or logistic forces.

The Luftwaffe would be a bit stronger, although much of its strength was tied up fighting the Allies in western Europe or the Mediterranean. It would have mainly the same aircraft types as in 1941 except for the FW-190. They might have replaced some of the Ju-52s lost in Crete, which would help their logistics in Russia.

 

Maybe, maybe not, and the number will probably be higher than 4-5 thousand.

Don't forget, 2 factories were evacuated to the Urals in 41, but most of the workers were left behind.

 

Stalin would have had one more year to realize Adolph & Co. were NOT his friends! He would have then had some time to prepare a better defense in depth.

 

I was thinking something along the lines of this.

Stalin's Missed Chance - Wikipedia

 

.....the problem with the ''if'' scenarios is there are many other ifs to counter them ....