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Corona Virus - How is that working for you?

Discussion in 'Free Fire Zone' started by wooley12, Mar 13, 2020.

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  1. wooley12

    wooley12 Active Member

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    When I wrote that I was referring to my friends and family who are on Facebook. It seemed very odd. I really don't want it to be political in this part of the forum.
     
  2. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    ..you don't understand or you are trolling -NOT 10%
    Italy population 60 MILLION...total deaths about 1000
    I will say it one more time--the mortality rate is from those that get the virus--not the total population
     
  3. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    ''your''?....so you are not American?
     
  4. CAC

    CAC Ace of Spades

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    Bit cranky today Bronk...? Let me feel your forehead...I took Wooley’s comment as a way of tieing it into WW2...peace brothers...
     
  5. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    "Your" as in it isn't the one I and a majority of other Americans voted for.
     
  6. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    You are absolutely correct. The problem is that without adequate testing you cannot get an accurate mortality rate...in fact it is likely inflated. The problem is, because it is probably inflated it simply adds to the anxiety. The other problem with inadequate testing is that you cannot identify those infected and so cannot control their movements and ability to infect others. So in the end if you have a 2% or 3% mortality rate and only 10 million are infected then you "only" have 300,000 dead, but if you cannot contain the spread because you don't know who is infected and say 150 million are infected, roughly half the population of the US, then you have 4.5 million dead.
     
  7. wooley12

    wooley12 Active Member

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    One of my favorite cartoons about human nature.and truth about WWII.

    garritroopers.gif
     
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  8. wooley12

    wooley12 Active Member

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    Out local 97 year old WWII D Day vet who waded in with the 2nd wave just posted on the town Facebook page that we should all keep "stay calm and never give up." He walks every day around town.

    A while back I spoke with a Navy brass who was on sabbatical after directing the health care system in the Cayman Islands. He'd seen a few disasters. Ebola was in the news and the story was still mixed and confusing. I asked him who to listen to and he told me to listen to what the nurses are saying to see what's really going on.
     
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  9. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    I can imagine what my Dad would say if he was still around. He landed across UTAH on 14 June 1944 and retired from the Army in 1969, but was frugal with toilet paper until the end of his life. One packet of 12 tissue-size sheets in a K-Ration Supper pack was it for the day of he could keep it dry; I know what he would say about people buying multiple cases of TP and cleaning out store shelves.

    Sound advice. Talk to the grunts in the front line.
     
  10. wooley12

    wooley12 Active Member

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    The nurses here are calmly freaking out.
     
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  11. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    BTW, for all those of the "this is hysteria and it ain't that bad" ilk, a sobering new stat from WHO. Italy has failed to flatten the curve and the death rate of its infected patients has spiked near 7% (currently the US is at c. 2.9%). To compare, that is 21,157 cases and 1,414 deaths in a population of 60.48 million. If the US reaches that point, we're talking about 116,000+ cases and about 7,800 deaths. Except Italy has more doctors and hospital beds per capita than the US.
     
  12. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    I don't remember - are you in King?
     
  13. Half Track

    Half Track Well-Known Member

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    So, what keeps this from happening again. Even years from now. Nothing? This isn’t the first one, but one of the worst. Don’t these diseases primarily source from China? Do they care over there? Will the Chinese government care enough to stop this filthy culture in these filthy markets with these filthy people? I don’t believe I ever heard of one of these diseases starting from my local farmers market. Do I sound bitter against their culture? Yes. And I don’t particularly care. If I am wrong about this or misinformed, someone please tell me and I will try to understand. And yeah, I know, Ebola didn’t start there.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  14. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    ....who did you vote for?...because Hillary did not get the majority of Americans to vote for her...the majority of Americans did not vote for Hillary
    ..the majority of the US voted for Mr Trump
    Mr Trump is doing a lot better job than just about any POTUS in the last decades
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
  15. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    1. yes, you can control movements of the population--that's exactly what countries are doing ....you are saying HALF of the US population will be infected???!!!
    2. so if 10 million are infected, you think you can contain it then??!!! hahahhahahahahah
     
  16. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    ..you people are so funny....like on other forums, you somehow are able to tell people's emotions through the internet---hahahhahahah
    you're a genius
     
  17. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    there's a HUGE difference there:
    US population density: 87 psm
    Italy: 521 psm
    also, if I'm not mistaken, Europe uses mass transportation a lot more than the US
     
  18. CAC

    CAC Ace of Spades

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    Firstly it’s called reading the tone...secondly I put a question mark, asking not determining...”You people”? What’s that mean?
     
  19. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    by the way, please explain how you came to the [ hahahah ] ''cranky'' conclusion
    ..no, you CANNOT tell ''tones'' from the internet
    caps for emphasis only
     
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  20. Jack B

    Jack B Active Member

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    Here's my sense of the situation. I guess that we'll see closer to 1-2 million SARS-CoV-2 infections here in the US. And that may be low. Until we get a vaccine and some 'herd immunity' this virus is going to pop-up around the world for years to come. I won't hazard a guess about the number of infections world-wide.

    There were 500,000 cases of measles in the world last year. Measles has a 15% case-fatality rate. And we have a vaccine. Measles is a virus we could eradicate, but chose to live with. How will Covid-19 be any different?

    This flu season, the CDC estimates that the US has had 36 million cases of flu. And that came with 22,000 fu-associated deaths.

    [​IMG]


    Covid seems to be just as contagious as the flu; however, people are taking it more seriously, so I wouldn't expect to see 35 million CoV infections. China has provided a good example of how this virus does appear to be 'containable'. The question will be how much political and social 'will' will the world bring to bear on the problem.

    Not all countries will be able to do what China has done. And, it isn't clear that China is out of the proverbial woods just yet. I've seen one 'expert' predict a second wave in China as their containment measures relax.

    Keep in mind, we have a vaccine for flu (45% effective in preventing flu, but also effective in reducing the severity of most flu cases). So those 36 million cases are happening despite a partial immunization of the country. That is a bit sobering, especially when it is already clear that CoV is mutating now....as influenza also does. I think we can expect to see this virus travel for a while.
    ...

    The mortality rate of Covid-19 is not really known. The denominator is not well defined. We, the world, don't really know how many people have gotten this new SARS virus at this point. Estimates....and they are all just estimates....for the mortality rate are ranging from 0.25% to 3%. So, in the USA, I'd guess....guess...that we'll see 10,000 - 20,000 deaths, based off my 1-2 million cases guess. If the mortality rate really is closer to 2-3%, we are in bigger trouble. We'll overwhelm the medical system and things will become more difficult. Italy is an unfortunate example of that happening already.

    Some people with significant risk factors: smokers, elderly, diabetics, obesity, immunocompromised, heart disease, lung disease, etc.... are at significantly higher risk for more severe illness and more medical intervention. The same is true for flu, but at the moment CoV seems nastier. If you have those risk factors, be very cautious and scrupulous about protecting yourself.

    So, I think we're in for a bumpy ride. Hopefully people will become accustomed to the new virus and the sense of panic will subside. Hopefully people will continue to use protective measures like good hand-washing, 'social distancing', and minimizing exposure. Hopefully we'll see a safe vaccine in the next year. "Hope isn't a strategy", but we can hope the strategy will work out to minimize this bug's impact.
     
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