Codebreaking... or not...

I think we all would agree that the allied codebreakers who broke into the german and japanese codes had a huge outcome on the war.
So here's what seems to me to be an obvious What If?- What if the allies had not been able to break the german codes?
U-Boats?
D-Day?

Gotta work at the moment- I'll put up some ideas later this afternoon...

 

For one--several more German Convoys would have brought much needed supplies to Rommels Afrika Korps--and perhapse--that would have won the War in the Desert, for the Germans, and perhapse--Turkey and Spain would have become full members of the Axis powers--thus bolstering the Germans positions on both fronts. Then as a good possibility--Finland most likely would have stayed in the Axis camp--and helped keep the russiand at bay--along the Leningrad Front.

 

War in the Atlantic would have a different outcome. This what if would have a huge impact as to the outcome of the war. I am sure there were other things that helped the allied effort we do not know about.

 

Perhaps we can even speculate that it would have had an impact on the Battle of Britain, where our air-craft losses would have been smaller... But that is too doubtful.

But in the Atlantic the outcome would have been totally different. Perhaps Great Britain would have starved in summer 1941 and if not then, surely in 1942. Rommel would have taken North Africa and USA's presence would have been very difficult. Still, the war was decided in the Eastern Front.

And in the Pacific? God, that is even worse!!! Imagine Midway in Japanesse hands!!! Then Hawaii in Japanesse hands!!! All USA's carriers in the bottom of the sea... Very bad landscape for USA.

 

Breaking Axis codes was absolutely vital to the Allied war effort. If enigma had gone unbroken German U-boats would have isolated Britain and knocked out a good deal more of the British and American surface fleets. The West would not be a problem for Germany, and she could devote more resources to the eastern front.

As for Japan, I think we still could have won, but the war would have dragged on longer and would have been much bloodier, not to mention it would require resources we would need in Europe and North Africa. Overall, the Axis, especially Germany would have had a much greater chance of victory.

 

Yes i have to agree if the machine was not stolen [lol] or as the english might like to say borrowed it really might have made a huge differance in the war.

im not positive the outcome would have changed though. As the japanesse naval commander said ''im afriad the great giant will come alive''. he was really smart i must say.

Much smarter then whoever was responsible for letting the enigma be stolen.

 

Welcome a board PT!!! We all hope to see you here oftenly!!!

I think that if the enigma would have not been broken then bye, bye Great Britain and the West would have been very, very quiet. The Americans could not have got close to Europe, the Mediterranean would have been free and then we could have attacked the Soviet Union with the 100% strenght of the Wehrmacht. And then, once Great Britain surrendered, Dönitz would have moved his U-boats to the Pacific, where the Japanesse codes had not been broken either and then the USA would have been menaced very hardly. I do not say defeated, but menaced very, very, very hardly and would have face a very difficult situation: trade lines cut, Pacific and Atlantic fleets useless, Midway, Alaska and Hawaii taken... But they're lucky and it did not happen.

 

ok yeah were lucky?



i dont have the death totals for ww2 but i hardly consider any of the dead to feel "lucky" as the guy above this post puts it.

sorry buddy i dont mean to sound person in any shape way or form, especially when im new here.

im all for world peace. im sorry to say that the word "lucky" doesnt fit into my discussion about ww2 and the enigma machine being stolen.

AND as long as your opinion is so strong that we couldnt break the japs code and the "nazis" would have quaratined us is kind of silly dont you think?

there are more wholes in that theory than a block of swiss cheese. Sorry SIR but what makes you think you would have taken britian?

i saw in another spot somewhere in this forum a opinion laidin disscussion on who is the best general? hmmm does churchill count [i say half laughingly]. If you think britian would have fallen then why didnt it? there was plenty of opportunity, was it one of your herioc generals that chose not to continue to attack english airfields to rather bomb civilians?

a major blunder i might add that even a second rate general would not miss, or is it one of the same generals who had no backbone to stand up for human rights as 100,000 of thousands of jews were not only killed but burnt alive?

were they as lucky as we were? or would have been if you contained us? We would have never given up even if the german army took over the world it would have eventually fell like all the empires before, from roman to ottoman. oh except they were real empires not failed ones.

 

oh lol,

sorry i forgot. thanks for the welcome. hope my words were not to strong to prove my point, sir.

 

I think what he is trying to sa is that without the British breaking the enigma codes, things would havebee alot worse. There is no doubt that as far as the Battle of the Atlantic is concerned, it was vital. There are direct links with the rise and fall of German U-Boat sccesses to when we were and were not reading German signals. After the U-110 was captuerd, shipping losses fell sharply to the point were the U-Boats were almost withdrawn. Sinkings only picked up again when the Boats found easy pickings off the US coast after Pearl. Then, when the Germans changed the nmber of wheels in 42, we stopped reing the cdes, and sinkings in Mid-Atlantic increased again. And that perod whe the Allies were reading the codes is imortant. Thats just when serice men were starting to be shipped across the Atlantic. Wethyer reading the codes actually saved ritain as is clamed, i am not sure. We managed to servive the hardet period without reading the codes, but only just.

 

PT- good to have you along. One thing though- sorta in response to your post-
First off, Friedrich points out something very simple and clear- ALL the alies are VERY lucky that the german codes were broken..

I think everyone here understands what war is. War always results in way too many dead people. That's about it. But that being understood, we can still have an academic discussion about the war. Or study aspects of war, play games based on war, etc. This does not mean we don't understand the consequences of war.

Well, that's the point here- Britian didn't fall partly because we broke the geman codes. Hence my "What If?"...

 

Good stuff... You gents said most of my thoughts on the matter...

I would have to agree with this. Friedrich is right- eventually, the russians still likely would have won out. Especially when considering that they had their own spies who did NOT use the broken codes, just old-fashioned spying. But without the broken codes, thewar would have undoubtedly have gone much longer. Adn England would have had a really rough time...

 

I don't really thin the codes had that much to do wih it. They did not really help win the attle of Britain, and that was the only time we were under an threat of invasion, if w were at all. The biggest threat to Briain directly was in the Atantic. And i think all that wold have happened is that wewould have had to sue for piece. I don't think we would have been invaded, Hitler never wanted this from the start.

The code breaking helped win the war in a shorter perid, and helped ease the burden on British people. But i doubt vthey heled defeat any invasion.

 

I'm with Bish on the ULTRA/Battle of Britain point. This has been investigated by a number of historians, all of whom agree that ULTRA decrypts ( still rather sketchy at that early stage ) had very little impact on Dowding's thinking.

But how about Kursk ?? For years, the Germans knew that the Russians had advanced warning of the offensive and thought this was due to a high-level 'spy ' in Hitler's headquarters. Whereas, I believe, it was in fact the people at Bletchley Park ?

 

ACT OF MiLiTARY SURRENDER
1. We the undersigned, acting by authority of the German High Command, hereby surrender unconditionally to the Supreme Commander, Allied Expeditionary Force and simultaneously to the Supreme High Command of the Red Army all forces on land, at sea, and in the air who are at this date under German control.

2. The German High Command will at once issue order to all German military, naval and air authorities and to all forces under German control to cease active operations at 2301 hours Central European time on 8th May 1945, to remain in all positions occupied at that time and to disarm completely, handing over their weapons and equipment to the local allied commanders or officers designated by Representatives of the Allied Supreme Commands. No ship, vessel, or aircraft is to be scuttled, or any damage done to their hull, machinery or equipment, and also to machines of all kinds, armament, apparatus, and all the technical means of prosecution of war in general.

3. The German High Command will at once issue to the appropriate commanders, and ensure the carrying out of any further orders issued by the Supreme Commander, Allied Expeditionary Force and by the Supreme Command of the Red Army.

4. This act of military surrender is without prejudice to, and will be superseded by any general instrument of surrender imposed by, or on behalf of the United Nations and applicable to GERMANY and the German armed forces as a whole.

5. In the event of the German High Command or any of the forces under their control failing to act in accordance with this Act of Surrender, the Supreme Commander, Allied Expeditionary Force and the Supreme High Command of the Red Army will take such punitive or other action as they deem appropriate.

6. This Act is drawn up in the English, Russian and German languages. The English and Russian are the only authentic texts.

Signed at Berlin on the 8 day of May, 1945

Von Friedeburg
Keitel
Stumpff

On behalf of the German High Command
IN THE PRESENCE OF:

A.W.Tedder
On behalf of the Supreme Commander, Allied Expeditionary Force

Georgi Zhukov
On behalf of the Supreme High Command of the Red Army

At the signing also were present as witnesses:

F. de Lattre-Tassigny
General Commanding in Chief
First French Army

Carl Spaatz
General, Commanding
United States Strategic Air Force
--------------------------------------
sorry cant help but rub it in a bit,lol

Ok like i said before, more holes then a block of swiss cheese!

General der Infanterie Friedrich H
says;
I think that if the enigma would have not been broken then bye, bye Great Britain and the West would have been very, very quiet. The Americans could not have got close to Europe, the Mediterranean would have been free and then we could have attacked the Soviet Union with the 100% strenght of the Wehrmacht. And then, once Great Britain surrendered, Dönitz would have moved his U-boats to the Pacific, where the Japanesse codes had not been broken either and then the USA would have been menaced very hardly. I do not say defeated, but menaced very, very, very hardly and would have face a very difficult situation: trade lines cut, Pacific and Atlantic fleets useless, Midway, Alaska and Hawaii taken... But they're lucky and it did not happen.
--------------------
1=
lets break this down-
broken then bye, bye Great Britain and the West would have been very, very quiet.

my reply;
You may be rite sir but, they changed there campaign before the enigma was ''borrowed'' by the english. they [gerris] change there attack by take attention off brit airfields and placing more attention on cities, huge error. ON top of that bunder they moved more fighters to the russian front build up and left less escorts for the german bombers. Did they feel so arrogant that brittian was done?
SO with or without the enigma the brits were still in the war even though hanging by a thread attached to the moral booster churchills bed coat.[he did most of his work from his bed]
-----------------------------
2=
Dönitz would have moved his U-boats to the Pacific, where the Japanesse codes had not been broken either and then the USA would have been menaced very hardly. I do not say defeated, but menaced very, very, very hardly and would have face a very difficult situation:

my reply;
usa was menace hardly, alot of are ships were damaged along the eastern sea board it just was kept hush hush not to induce panic. i personally know a gentlemen that was on a sub that patroled the north east coast along new england, he saw many a sunken as well as recued ship out there.
As far as containment of the USA really almost impossible especially with the canadians next door willing to help in any way shape or form. We could have easily funneled troops and resources right through canada into alaska into russia. ESPECIALLY WHEN WE HAD SO MANY WEST COAST PLANTS as well.

--------------------------
3=
and would have face a very difficult situation: trade lines cut, Pacific and Atlantic fleets useless, Midway, Alaska and Hawaii taken...

trade lines cut?lol do you really think trade lines cutting off would greatly effect the usa perminatly? lol. would be a problem for a year tops. Would not be a problem food wise at all, as well as natural resources. ESPECIALLY WITH CANADA NEXT DOOR AS I SAID BEFORE. Ill GIVE YOU hawaii taken, i still think it was a huge mistake by the japs not taking a full assualt on hawaii, they could have had it easily. Alaska not the same would have had much trouble with the terrian and weather, just like in russia.

well that is if IF they could take little england, which was a country entirely to tough and to resilant for the third reich to take,

thanks for making me think pal.

[ 18 July 2002, 11:36 AM: Message edited by: PTBOAT ]

 

Well, war is a very sad and horrendous thing. But you Americans were very very lucky. Because of WWII you came as the most powerful and wealthiest country on Earth. A single bomb ever touched your cities and there were no rapings, famines or dead civilians. How could not have you been lucky?

Deaths in WWII:

USSR: 30.000.000
China: 10.000.000
Poland: 6.000.000
Germany: 5.000.000
Japan: 3.000.000
Checoslovaquia: 650.000
France: 600.000
Italy: 500.000
Great Britain: 450.000
USA: 300.000
Canada: 150.000

Please! Don't tell me you weren't lucky! Of those 300.000 how many were civilians? 100?

Yes, we started the war. Every nation has the right to demand and fight for its own supremacy and hegemony. Greece, Iran, Mongolia, Italy, Spain, France, Great Britain were the most powerful some time. We had to try. Now you got it. Earn it.

By the way, about the code breaking... Do you realise that if the Luftwaffe would have continued with its attacks on air-fields until mid-September and Seelöwe would have been launched then Great Britain would have fallen because Great Britain had no addecuate defences on ground? It had been very difficult and risky for us, but it was not impossible... But let's say that this doesn't happen. But the Enigma codes are not broken and then 2.000.000 tons of shippings are sunk per month in 1941 and 1942 by the U-boats. No food, petrol nor weapons would have reached Great Britain. The British are one of the bravest peoples there are, but a starving people cannot be brave. You know that happened at the end of WWI with us...

And what if the Japanesse codes would have not been broken either. Then you would have not known that Midway was Yamamoto's main objective. Midway would have fallen, the American carriers sunk sooner or later and then Hawaii invaded. What would you have done without a fleet and all the Pacific and its strategic points in Japanesse hands?

And yes, Martin, the Soviets knew every detail about "Zitadelle" due to conventional spies and the aid of the British with ULTRA...

 

OK, first off PT, what does copying the whole german act of surrender have to do with anything? We all know the germans surrendered...

I'm sure we could find faults with your theories as well.

You're not earning many points here. Academic discussion.
And you should read some more of Friedrich's posts- he's certainly biased towards the germans a bit- he's German!!! He also knows a pretty damn good amount about the topic.

Course, you obviously forget that until 1940, the US had NO military production. The word "Isolationist" mean anything?

first off, Yes. Cutting off any nations trade lines has a huge effect. Especially a nation just recovering from the Great Depression. Ooops, forgot that one too, huh?

which one? hanging by a thread or too tough for the third reich to take?

Intelligent duscussion goes a lot farther...

 

Bish and Martin, you guys are correct- it codebreaking was only a minor factor in the Battle of Britian- much less a factor than the legendary english stubborness! I think the codebreaking had far more imoact and importance in the U-Boat campaign...

And Martin amd Friedrich, I'm 90% sure that the Kursk info the Russians had came from a spy, not broken codes. I don't have a source handy right now. But one thing I remember certainly is that the Russians knew about the Kursk attack only days after it had been first planned by Hitler. Coded messages would not have been given to the Russains that quickly- time to decode, then diplomacy involved in giving de-codes to russians.
Isn't that spy codenamed "Lucy" the one involved in this? Anyone have more info on Lucy or other Russian spies?

 

Friedrich,

you rascal, not sure of your circumstances in life sir. or were your from, since you keep saying we.

im not so sure about whether or not most german would like to call any german activity in ww2 as ''we'' today.

thanks for the war stats, but your statments about life values dont make sense to my kind of thinking really. hope you dont take offense to my comments as they are mine and not all of my nieghbors, as i also believe the same for you.

and i wont take the comments to heart for they our your opinions, and thats all they are. We all are allowed them thank god. Although they werent allowed in FACIST NAZI GERMANY.

fred, may i call you fred?

you posted this above,
**Please! Don't tell me you weren't lucky! Of those 300.000 how many were civilians? 100?

Yes, we started the war. Every nation has the right to demand and fight for its own supremacy and hegemony. Greece, Iran, Mongolia, Italy, Spain, France, Great Britain were the most powerful some time. We had to try. Now you got it. Earn it.**
1-
Please! Don't tell me you weren't lucky! Of those 300.000 how many were civilians? 100?

my retort; 1 death to a menicale nut case is unlucky no matter were the person resides from.
also just becuase we had less deaths does not mean it was less painful FRED, try telling a family dads got to go away and fight some people far far away becuase some crack pot forced his way into power half way across the world.

one thing people for other countries say now and then is that statement, your lucky, and i agree i am lucky. i could have been born somewhere else on this planet. i feel for the others who struggle, but some struggle here as well its not 100% perfect you know, cant be ever perfect anywere. But we as a group no longer represent are government unfortunatly its to big now. So we can complain and gripe but not control all the actions made, not more then other large countries. So dont blame us for being what the bulk of us would like to be.

2-how many were civilians? 100?
many were civilians torn away from there families fred, never to return. even if its a small amount compared to "your" losses, there still losses with names behind the numbers. What about the medics doctors and nurses and chaplins.

One other thing other people for other countries tend to forget as well is that we are made up of you. Yeah thats rite when you look at us you might as well as be looking in a mirror. For many families here were tortured by the finding that there mothers brothers sisters and cousins were killed, missing, and never to be seen again ever, they were emigrants that were trying to make a new life and it was split in half by war.

SO TELL THOSE americans that they didnt lose anything fred.

3- Greece, Iran, Mongolia, Italy, Spain, France, Great Britain were the most powerful some time. We had to try. Now you got it. Earn it.
earn it?
try we not trying to take over the world! nor do we want to, right now we just want are own surrounding to be secure and safe for are children. IM not talking about government fred, im talking about peaceful rite to life and the average americans feelings, we dont want war, its hard times. hell write now i think id rather live in europe much simpler times it seems.

 

Well. I did want to see the papers of our surrender since a while ago. Thanks...

Great Britain was a much weaker nation than us, at least in air and ground. Althought they are ancient warriors and of course fought toughly and patriotically. But you perfectly know that once we achieved to put on English shores a division or two they were lost. Of course, the tricky part was puting the forces on land, but once done it the rest was easy. The British fought very well in France and the Balcans but they could not bear the Blitkrieg. Certainly in Great Britain's soil they were worst prepared but they were going to fight even harder because we know peoples do that when they fight on their soil (examples: Japan, Russia, France, us, etc.). But let's suposse again it doesn't happen.

Dönitz would have cut the supply lines of the British Isles and therefore Great Britain would have surrender because it is a small island. When you say that USA could not be defeated with that I agree, because it has a huge territory with natural resources and two big neighbours who could help with natural resources and men power. But Britain was not self-sufficient in food, natural resources, weapons or anything else, except for its Navy. The British food, minerals and petrol productions were the 10% of the British needs for normal situations, can you imagine a war situation? Yes, it was a hard piece of bread to bite, but we could have eaten it for sure.

Now, talking about the USA. Of course it would have been helped by two enormous countries: Canada and Mexico with men power, natural resources, etc. But it would have been all by ground. When you cut a country from the sea you put it into trouble because trade by sea is much faster and better. By example: Mexiacn petrol from Campeche would have had to travel 3.000 kilometres by motorway or railroad to reach USA... Venezulan petrol would have had to travel 10.000 kilommetres... No way... Have you seen Hawaii on a map? It is at the very centre of the Pacific. It is the best strategic position of the Pacific. And Alaska could have been easily taken, because it had no defences. The japanesse had not to occupy it all, just the coast to avoid helping the Soviets. Further from that is very difficult to speculate more. Peace must have been made because nor Germany nor Japan had the capacity to win a war with USA, because it would have had to be two coordinated invasions and I do not think it would have been suitable for us... Japanesse could do it, but I do not think we could...