Russian Navy "On Verge of Collapse"

If you watch the map, the ISIS controls 2/3 of Syria. The "legal" government has practically only sea side mansions. Once the rebels are bombed away, which I am sure the ISIS will be thankful for, the Russian base will be conquered in an instant and we´ll see many memorable videos in youtube about Russian Soldiers and their throats cut. Remember who you are dealing with...remember...murderers,rapists,people using religion as a cause to kill people in net...Awful...

 

While I am concerned that Russian actions might turn anti Assad rebels to the Daesh camp, I am skeptical that they then will over run Russian positions. Daesh are effective against ill organized rabble, but seem to wither in the face of dedicated professional ground and air forces. Certainly they will do nasty things to individuals they can get their hands on, but organized bodies seem able to hold them at bay unless vastly out numbered or if poorly led.

 

Never underestimate Russians and Turks on being able to get down and dirty when the chips are on the line. That is a fight that if it occurs that could get really ugly.

It is also important to identify that all ISIS atrocity is not because of religious fanaticism. Troops under constant duress do bad things. When a war is in your back yard, things are different. The bad blood between Shia and Sunni isn't necessarily all religious in nature. Losing family members brings hatred. Americans would be no different if a war is in our back yard.

Some of the unreported stuff in Ukraine is really ugly on both sides. In WW2 what Stalin did to Poltava in Ukraine was almost unbelievable. A country that lost maybe 40% of it's population in the 30s and 40s has a different perspective on war.

I'm sure Julian Ewell has a different reputation in Vietnam among civilians than he does among WW2 101st ABN enthusiasts.

In the US we've sort of developed a sanitized view of war.

 

ISIS has practically 2/3 of Syria and most northern Iraq. Even if the US claims they killed almost all the top leaders there will pop up 30 more for the same "job". Bombing them the Kingdom come has not been effective. Now what? back to Iraq 2? Oh yes, thank you Mr Bush, we said no in 2003 and now more soldiers will die, the US most probably has to go back there and die for you. You know the brits have already gone there according to news (although a small number ) but Obama cannot stop the political islamic revolution by words only. Or is ISIS gonna hold the area for good, nobody else will kick them out.

 

Kai, I agree with your point of view. This situation resembles the battle of Stalingrad with Putin in role of Richthoffen, Assad as Paulus and Turkish border is a kind of Siryan Volga. Richthoffen's Luftwaffe bled white and Paulus surrendered the army. Do the contemporary decision makers learn from history?

 

Kai, Tamino I have to disagree with you on the above. The Kurd's seem to have control of about half of northern Iraq with Daesh pushed back to west and north west Iraq. If Mosul falls in the next 6-12 months, Daesh will find themselves in a pickle maintaining any control of the north of Iraq and possibly western as well. Syrian Kurd's and their allies seem to have cleared the north eastern border of that country also.

Daesh in Syria and Iraq seems to be losing ground on all fronts though these have been modest gains, but gains without major western ground forces involved beyond small numbers of sec op personnel. The seem to be expanding due to various groups throughout the region and Africa/Asia taking up the Daesh 'franchise', though it should be remembered that they existed as something else before jumping on the bandwagon and their true ambitions are less clear.

 

Map of ISIS presence, I think.

http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2014/isis-map/

 

It seems that the fight against ISIS has not started 5 minutes before midnight but it has started 15 minutes after midnight. Excuse me for plagiarism - I have stolen the former phrase from Adolf, but it is so adequate to depict situation in Sirya and Iraq. This is the end for the both countries, unfortunately - they just have to realize that.

 

Good map Kai, but it is important to define 'presence' and to note that to the best of my knowledge Daesh has not gained any new ground while losing Kobani, Sinjar, Tikrit and have lost some 14 percent of their gains since this time last year. Granted we are not at the beginning of the end, but possibly the end of the beginning.

I prefer to plagiarize Winston.

 

Biak,
The trick of such maps is not what they show but what they fail to show: forces opposing ISIS are missing. These maps are like X-ray images of cancer - mere presence of malign areas is the reason for serious concern.

 

Would ISIS use gas weapons, if they should have from the Syrian army, against the Jews?? Israel does have nukes and would they hold back if there was a series of mustard gas attack against the Israel cities....??

 

Is this The End?

There is a prophecy in Bible that Damascus will be destroyed before the end of the World.

Isaiah 17.1-3:

17.1 See, Damascus will no longer be a city
but will become a heap of ruins.
2 The cities of Aroer will be deserted
and left to flocks, which will lie down,
with no one to make them afraid.
3 The fortified city will disappear from Ephraim,
and royal power from Damascus;
the remnant of Aram will be
like the glory of the Israelites,
declares the Lord Almighty.

 

Probably not.

In the era when the Bible was written cities could and were destroyed and never rebuilt or reoccupied due to natural disaster or war, but in modern times despite cataclysmic earthquakes, tidal waves, hurricanes, fires and even carpet bombing/atomic weapons, cities have been restored, often better than before. The only significant city not restored to my mind was Chernobyl.

 

Chernobyl is not rebuilt due to radiation. The bombs that hit Japanese cities were small by today's standards.

 

I was aware why it was abandoned, the point was to point out that it takes a lot nowadays to make people give up a place.

 

If one looks at a map of the region, including Ukraine, Crimea, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Iraq..

and listen to the news today with the words out of Tehran.

The Russian CAN control the Black and Caspian Seas. The Red Sea and Persian Gulf can be blocked from a variety of threats.

I'm looking for Russian to swiftly and not so far off to secure the land bridge between Russian to Crimea through Mariupol and north.

It's interesting to sit back and watch.

Tehran is not happy with the Saudi's for a number of reasons. They may have an ally to the north.

 

"Chernobyl is not rebuilt due to radiation. The bombs that hit Japanese cities were small by today's standards."


Yet the quarantined area has human 'squatters' and many wild animals living there quite happily. If the media could find dead people or dead animals they would be on the TV news all over the world.

...and both Japanese cities had many survivors remaking their homes from the rubble, they had nowhere else to go. No references sorry, lost them in a crash.


John

3086

 

Oz, yes, if there were bodies, however, the eco system there is tremendously changed. I personally measured (using lay terms) almost 4000 cpm on my radiation detector on a flight right over Chernobyl at about 10,000 feet. At 30,000 feet normal cpm for this detector was a little under 700 at 30,000. Background in most of US is about 25 to 70 cpm at ground level.

 

The Russian Navy has been on the verge of collapse for over a century and it's still here...