What if Stalin attacked first?

Inspired by Izaak Stern in the 'Greatest Mistakes' topic.

According to many sources, Stalin planned to attack Germany in June/July 1941.
So, what do you think would have happened if he had managed to get his blow in first?

Gentlemen, submit your answers.

 

Not a whole lot, frankly. The Red Air Force was in the middle of a massive reequipment of its squadrons with new, more modern aircraft; many units were still flying obsolescent types when Germany launched Barbarossa. So there would likely not have been very effective air support for the ground forces. Also, many of the Red Army armored units contained obsolescent or otherwise useless tanks; the T-34 was not available in the summer of 1941 in sufficient numbers to have really made its presence felt on the battlefield. More to the point, the Soviets did not have the large numbers of trucks needed to supply their forces. And the Russians would have been facing an unbloodied Wehrmacht fighting defensively on ground that the Germans knew well.

 

Everything depends on how or if at all the Germans would be prepared.

 

Well...
Being as the massive majority of hte VVS was destroyed on the ground in the opening German attack, and the remainder actually put up a good defense (considering), then you have a numerically superior air force attacking a (slightly) qualitively superior air force...

Ground warfare - the Soviet tanks were not all that obsolete. What did Germany have in 1941? Pz I / II were very common. The Pz III was good, and the Pz IV was infantry support. The most common tank (IIRC) was the Czech thingy (the official German designation has a '38' in it somewhere). The BT7 compares quite favourably, and is actually very suited to offense - being rather speedy.
Factor in the high numbers of Soviet paratroops, and the extensive training they had recieved...

The big problems are, of course, bad communicatios (too few radios) and lack of logistical vehicals. Although, to be fair, this was also a problem that the Germans suffered from, and they did ok.

However, yes, if the Soviets did attack shortly before the Germans did, they would run into large numbers of troops, with better tactics & communications.
It could go either way, really.

 

a soviet attack on germany in june 1941 politically would have worked in germanys favour as being the "victim" so 2 speak, would the british be so eager to help the russians?

on the ground i cant envisage anything but russian failure of any invasion.

in june 1941 the german army was the most battle hardened army in the world and tactically much superior to the red army and would inflict a heavy defeat on the soviet union.

However i dont think the germans would be able to mount a "barborossa" type campaign in response, although incursion into soviet territory of some depth would be probable, some sort of peace would be sort at some point by both sides.

 

Look the facts in the eyes, Gentlemen.

My G-d!
You have been sitting here discussing small combat details of the western front like real feinchmeckers and forgot to recognize what it all was about. Sorry for the condescending tone. From the Soviet or Russian or even Israeli point of view the East Front was and still appears essential and the western – secondary. Never mind that my Grandfather actually commanded a squadron of BT-7s in 1941 and told me about the tank in some detail. We may discuss the tank in greater extent in some other “room”.
What corpcasselbury writes is only partially true. And the part being true is not large. VVS (Voyenno-Vozdushne Sily or Soviet Air Force) were indeed rearming. All kinds of forces are rearming continually, even now. The process was very fast then in USSR but it didn´t really matter. The scenario of Operation “Groza”(Thunderstorm) was to knock out Luftwaffe on the ground. For this purpose Stalin had approx. 11 000 aircraft directly on the border in June ´41. The vast majority of pilots were greenhorns , but able to fly an aircraft to the place indicated (led by more experienced commanders), drop his bombs, empty his guns´ magazines and return home. No more. In a surprize attack the air is clean. If you add approx. 1 million paratroopers which Stalin had in ´41 whose aim was to be dropped at vital installations like airfields or oil wells in Ploesti, you have a force which is qualitatively weak but in effect knocks out the enemy from the start. Hitler could not wage even a defensive war without oil from Romania and if you see on a map, the distance from the border of Bessarabia to the Romanian oil fields was rather short. Add to it the Donau Flotilla (created in 1939 from parts of Dnepr Flotilla in order to neutralize Romanian oil fields from the ground, by blocking Donau and carrying Soviet “marines” to the other side of the river ) as well as thousands of Soviet amphibious tanks ammassed on Romanian border…. I can continue long.

It´s untrue that T-34 were not available in June ´41. The actual number was (22.06.41) 1225. Add to it 636 heavy KV-1 and –2. If it is “not sufficient numbers to have really made its presence felt on the battlefield”, so I don´t know what it is. corpcasselbury says that “the Russians would have been facing an unbloodied Wehrmacht”. Again untrue. A surprise attack from the air and from the ground ( over 3 million soldiers, 15 687 tanks, 59 787 artillery pieces directly on the border alone) on an enemy in the phase of unloading from trains or in camps, without any fortifications, and later – without gas, would have bled Wehrmacht rather considerably in the first days and weeks. Don´t forget, that the main attack was planned in the southern Poland where Wehrmacht was far weaker than north of Pripyat´ Marshes. I don´t know how well “the Germans knew the ground” in central Poland and how many maps of Poland were actually distributed among troops whose aim was to go ahead and not withdraw or defend themselves on Polish soil. As for RKKA, there were virtually no maps of own territory, as only attack was an option. On the other hand, the RKKA had prepared trainloads of maps of western Europe (this I know both from my Grandfather and from Russian sources).

Ricky, I am sorry to say that you aren´t right saying that majority of VVS was destroyed on the opening attack. But true, the most of the rest perished in subsequent weeks due to ground attacks and poor pilots. In my opinion you are right about the tanks. Apart from the widely known characteristics of Soviet and German tanks, I can add that my Grandfather was quite happy about his BT-7s, providing he had fast ground under tracks (the BT series was created to dash west on the roads). Their optics and visibility were not the best but armor and, particularly, the cannon was good. Not to speak about it´s engine. Only commanders´had radio broadcasters. On June 22th there were about 7 500 BT tanks, all incl. German&satellites had but 4171 tanks and sturmgeschutz on the border that day, minority of them being PzKw3 and 4. The factors that knocked RKKA were surprise and strategic initiative from the start on the German side. I won´t deny that German soldier and officer was much better trained (particularly in defence) than the Soviet one and that German organisation was superb. But sheer numbers, quantity of modern equipment as well as lack of gasoline (remember the burning Poesti) would probably make Stalin a victor in Europe.

 

Cheeky_monkey got it all wrong, I´m afraid.
Churchill hated Hitler´s guts and even if any remains of the Wehrmacht defended in France, he would have been happy to see them dead. You see, Stalin was a consummate diplomat (see his results in Teheran and so on) and he had quite a backing in the West, including the USA. I don´t see any problem here.
As for the most battle hardened army and all the rest – don´t forget the RKKA´s hardening in Winter War. I addressed many other factors above and in the “Mistakes” room. The question for me is not whether RKKA would have reached Berlin and Paris, but when and what would have ensued. Would Stalin have been able (no question about his wishes!) to launch his own Seeloewe or not? At what stage would the British have become uneasy? Don´t forget the initial million paratroopers and 5836 amphibious tanks. They have not been built just for the fun of it. Would Japan have gone on with Pearl Harbor (remember their pact of non-aggression with the USSR and the fact that even in case of Stalin´s attack in the West, a large army remained on the eastern border). The Japan might still get scared (and try their chances, at the same time) and make a Kamikaze attack on USSR. But there is the question of timing: you can´t prepare a large aggressive war in a matter of weeks. And the fact is, that Zhukov have beaten the Japans in 1939, so they got their lesson.

 

Can anybody stop me please?

 

Gents, please stop me, because I can´t stop myself.

As to the possible British reaction. I don´t know if any of you have actually read transcripts from talks between Molotov or Vyshinsky with Sir Stafford Cripps and other Englishmen as well as the letters from Churchill to Stalin in 1940-41, before Barbarossa. I have. The general tune is: "Please help us, attack the bastards...". One of the greatest diplomatic concerns of Stalin in the period was not to show any friendly sign towards the British. At one moment Hitler got a feeling that something is being done (or talked) wihout his knowledge (Molotov customarily delivered transcripts of any talks with the British to Von Schulenburg). Hitler saw ghosts. There were no unfriendly talks or even plans to talk.

 

This is getting interesting

There is a 'What if alternate history' book edited by Peter Tousras I think that had this scenario in it - i'll see if I can dig it up.

 

Fair point - a large number of the VVS's planes were destroyed on the ground in the opening attack, and much of the remainder were subsequently destroyed on the ground. I think that that is true & satisfactory to all!

I'm pleased at the responses here - some excellent posts. I'm looking forward to seeing some counter-arguments to Izaak's points...


Personally I agree with the opinions on how the Russians will attack (see my post way up above somewhere), but am less optimistic on the successes. The Soviet troops would run smack into the main force of the Wehrmacht. Although the Germans effectively did this during Barbarossa, with very bad results for the Soviets, I think that the German forces would recover faster, and put up a much more effective defence. After all, the Soviets will not be advancing using the magnificently co-ordinated 'Blitzkrieg'-style warfare of the Germans, and German defensive tactics were consistantly good / excellent theroughout the war.

Essentially, it could easly come down to who breaks first. Or who runs out of supplies first.

The Soviets have greater resources of men & machines, but a weaker logistical system (possibly)
The Germans have the defender's advantage, but will potentially run out of oil if the Soviets do capture/destroy the Romanian fields.

And, of course, would Britain attempt something out West if the Germans are getting distracted by the East...?

 

sorry, but i cant be wrong!

dont forget it is a what if senario. there is no right or wrong answer, just individual opinions.

 

Sorry, cheaky. You are right about that.
My violent reaction was due to your general trust in German powers and Soviet weakness, not based on facts or numbers. Sory, it won´t happen again.

 

Ahhh, that's what I like - self-moderation!

 

Ricky,
The question is, would there have been anybody left to recover and would there have been time to recover? BT-7 travelled around 80 km/h on the roads. The main forces of Germans are engaged in a chaotic defence on the border, being unprepared. Paratroopers have been dropped at all communication centers, possibly near Berlin too. Even at that time some of their units were virtual terror squads. As to the Germans´ excellent defence: they learned it in large part by doing on the eastern front. Anything in June – July on their part would have been hastily improvised from a very bad starting point. I stress the time factor and the Soviets´ sheer mass. My Grandfather´s division´s marching orders have been destroyed, unread, after the outbreak of the war. But the general plan of the offensive has been revealed in recent years (although not very publicized in the West): a massive attack south of Pripyat´Marshes with primary strategic objective – line Oppeln, Lodz. Very limited attack on East Prussia. Then, deep spearheads towards Koenigsberg and Danzig and surrounding the main German forces in East Prussia from the west (variant from May the 15th 1941). True, due to the political factors, the Soviet forces were very rigid and uninspiring (Grandfather used to say: “at any moment the political comissar was breathing you in the neck. Either you blindly followed the orders, whatever the effect, and stayed alive, or you tried to improvise, do something more ingenious, took risks, used your brains and local battle conditions. Then – if you succeeded, you were rewarded but still regarded as suspicious. Or you failed and your career or even life was at stake. And anybody fails eventually at some point.. So, that´s why everything was so stiff and unwieldy. Later in the war more freedom of action was allowed, but not much more”).
As to supplies: they were enormous on Soviet side and available on the very border. Numerous squads were ready to immediately widen the rail tracks on the Polish side, as they had done in 1939-41 in all rail net of eastern Poland. There were even ready made pipelines in parts, to be laid as the offensive developed (many Soviet tanks ran on diesel so they could not use German depots, even if captured by paratroopers).

Would Britain attempt something in 1941? Possibly, but on a very limited scale. But it´s an important point, Ricky. Even a limited contingent of Brits in France would have met the Soviet forces. According to the Soviet doctrine and general attitude, they were imperialists who should be beaten. Such an action might have made a Soviet Seeloewe even more probable and necessary.

 

i base my assessment on the facts that the german army had overun poland the low countries france and the balkans, and the fact the red army hadnt performed against the finns and how they subsequently performed against the german invasion of 1941.

 

OK, cheaky. But the facts are also that the Soviets had in 1941 a –by far- best equipped and largest army in the world. The fact is also that they eventually defeated the Finns as well as the Japanese (in 1939; convincingly enough that Japan made no further plans against them).
The fact is also, that having lost about 60% of steel mills, 63% coal mines, 60% aluminium industry, 40% of population (left behind the front), about 8 million casualties (incl. 3,9 million POWs), 28 000 tanks, 101 000 artillery pieces (all numbers as for December ´41), 10 000 airplanes (as for Aug 10th ´41), the USSR was able to rebuild RKKA and end up with the half of Europe in it´s hands. What the result would have been if RKKA had attacked first in 1941 without all these losses?
These are also facts.

 

I thought the original point you made was what would have happened had Stalin attacked in 1940, while Germany was occupied in the west.

 

No, I always meant June-July 1941.
You see, 1940 was a bad moment. Stalin hoped for a prolonged war of attrition between Germans and Brits+French in order to exhaust all of them. H´s quick victory disappointed him, however. Then he saw the gradual buildup on the border but didn´t apparently believe that that was for aggression. It was in a way even convenient for him to have all these divisions ammassed on the border, without derious fortifications, in order to destroy them then and there instead of having to go through one defence line after another.

 

fact is that the red army from late 1942 onwards was a totally different army than that of june 1941 in its structure communications and tactics, you cannot compare the two.

You touched on it yourself by saying the red army was rebuilt after the devasting defeats of 1941 and reequipted. it also learnt from its mistakes and it also learnt from the germans as well.

In june 1941 it hadnt learnt any of this. These as you say are facts