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North Korea, War, and Missile Defense

Discussion in 'Military History' started by CAC, Oct 17, 2017.

  1. CAC

    CAC Ace of Spades

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    US generals are suggesting a winter war (US winter...summer in Australia)
    And bloody Kim has threatened Australia again this week...My thinking is that the Nth Koreans cant destroy anybody, so they will opt for "symbolic" targets instead...with Australia currently without a missile shield and the long range missiles capable of reaching Northern Australia, Darwin may be a target....because its one of only two refuelling stations for US Aircraft and Ships...has Marines stationed here and a missile might actually get through! Although I doubt there IS a missile system that can touch an ICBM...the time it takes to target and hit one...its already blown.
    Interestingly the Chinese are building a six lane highway straight into North Korea...this may be to balk the US into NOT invading with troops and machines on the ground...but the thinking is its really to fly in and take Nth Korea itself...ive always thought the solution to this lies with China...good to see that they are putting some money where their mouths are. Id like to see the southern section of Nth Korea go to South Korea and China can have the Northern section...
    Read yesterday that the US has a "decapitation squad" sitting in subs off the coast of Nth Korea...a group of SEALS ready to take KJU out at an order...since Kim's discovered this he's started moving in disguise and has at least one double... Sounds like the Saddam Husain situation, and like that situation the "locals" will be the first to dob him in...He's over there! Point point...
    Sorry big answer to a small question...
     
  2. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    Well if there's a US CVN task force near by Australia isn't totally without a missile shield. I would think at least some of her Aegis equipped escorts would carry SM3's. They have successfully intercepted ICBMs in test I believe. See:
    Air Defense: Aegis Comes Ashore In Japan
    SM-3 Block 1B Anti-Missile Missile
    Air Defense: Standard Missile 6 For Everyone
     
  3. CAC

    CAC Ace of Spades

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    Perhaps...but they aren't around now...so when do they deploy? How long do they stay?
    The sailors (some of them) are saying that they don't have confidence in intercepting a missile...indeed the reason none have been shot down to date is in case they fail...and the consequences to the US public and the Nth Korean propaganda machine as a result...
     
  4. Otto

    Otto Spambot Nemesis Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    The question of missile defense against a single icbm is quite a complex task. The real problem is the ease with which an attacker can increase the defender's task complexity. Fire off a half dozen missiles at once, or a dozen dummy missiles with your real warhead and there you go. The defender has to destroy each and every incoming missile in a live fire scenario. Good luck.

    I might break this thread in two. The WWII tweets somehow started a good discussion on North Korea.
     
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  5. Mutley

    Mutley Active Member

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    Last edited: Oct 19, 2017
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  6. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    CAC, I don't think Kim will throw a nuke, he's just grandstanding. Sanctions are hurting and the more he threatens, the greater lkelyhood someone will negotiate a settlement with him. I heard a CIA analyst in an interview that stated he's (Kim) not insane so understands the repercussions of a first strike nuclear attack. My personal take is that if he is in fact sane, he realizes that even if he had a dozen long range nukes he can't win. Throw a nuke and nuclear retaliation is no longer "off the table" and given the relative small size of North Korea and the large size of the US nuclear arsenal he'd have no possibility of winning. The threat of a nuclear strike however can cause enough public fear to force his opponents to make concessions. It's always worked in the past, but apparently not this time.
    Another indicator is that he's concerned enough that Trump isn't compromising, that North Korea has representatives reaching out to GOP analysts trying to figure out Trump and how he is likely to respond to their threats/actions.
    Heres an article from The Hill:
    North Korean officials seek meetings with GOP analysts to figure out Trump: report

    As for shooting down ICBM's, you need to dedicate multiple missiles per ICBM. Current technology requires you hit it on the mid-flight (exoatmospheric) or re-entry phase. Depending on how many nukes Kim were to throw at one time, there is a very good chance that all could be intercepted. With the THADD system there are only a limited number of interceptors available, additional are being procured but that takes time. They have an 80-90% effective rate so it's standard to allocate two interceptors per incoming warhead to assure no warheads slip through. A two layered defense is optimal, the THAAD for exoatmospheric interception and a Patriot or similar for endoatmospheric/low level interceptions.
    With the Aegis, both ship and land based systems, a RIM-161 SM3 is used as a mid-course, exoatmospheric interceptor and the RIM-156 SM2ER as a terminal phase interceptor after re-entry. The ship system is not viewed as effective as the land based system due to the limited range of the interceptor and due to systemic deficiencies within the US Navy. Cost cutting measures that have cut crew sizes, cut maintenance budgets and training time; a high operational tempo that has led to lack of crew training and deferred maintenance has left the Aegis system afloat with a severely reduced state of readiness. The most obvious manifestations of the systemic issues are the two collisions of PACFleet destroyers with civilian vessels this year. Additionally a failed ballistic missile intercept test back in June of this year was attributed to an error by a sailor after a review. Also a good deal depends upon where and how many of these ballistic missle defense capable deployed at a given time.

    Sailor error led to failed US Navy ballistic missile intercept test

    "Read yesterday that the US has a "decapitation squad" sitting in subs off the coast of Nth Korea...a group of SEALS ready to take KJU out at an order...since Kim's discovered this he's started moving in disguise and has at least one double..."
    Given the mission profile this is just wishful thinking or fake news by some journalist, or a fake story planted by US intelligence to worry Kim. The area of North Korea where they'd have to operate is some of the roughest, most inhospitable on earth. If inserted from the sea the distances and terrain would make it very hard to get to the target without being compromised unless you had an extensive network of covert assets on the ground to aid/hide you. Given North Korea's probable air defense network there is not a good air insertion option either. It would require a fairly large team if you were to have any hope of fighting your way into him once you got to the target. Lastly, it would basically be a suicide mission because even if you did manage to get in and eliminate the target, evading pursuit and exfiltrating ain't gonna happen. If China agreed to assist in such an incursion there would be a higher probability of success and might be worth the risk. You could infiltrate across their border. I'm sure they have a network of agents on the ground, etc. I don't see that happening. Then what if your team is compromised without taking him out, you just upped the chances of Kim initiating war. Then even if you eliminated him, unless you have plausible deniability, the assasination of a head of state is an act of war and against both US and International Law. If you're going to do it you would have to use indigenous (North Korean) assets or third party mercenaries/agents.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2017
  7. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    Had a number of thoughts on that last bit but perhaps better not stating them.
     
  8. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    Dang it! You keep current on these things I'd be interested in your take.
     
  9. KodiakBeer

    KodiakBeer Member

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    In a former life I ran the security detail at the "secret" launch facility in Kodiak, AK. We fired old Polaris missiles out over the Pacific with speeds and trajectories mimicking Chinese or NoKo ICBMs. Interceptors based at Kwajalein or Travis AFB (CA) would try to intercept them outside the atmosphere. There was about a 50% success rate, and that with a completely planned-to-the-second launch. You could certainly expect less than that with a surprise launch, though surely the technology has advanced since I was involved.

    One thing that creates a lot of confusion is the difference between short and intermediate range missiles that are shot inside the atmosphere (and the smaller ship-based interceptors that target them), and the enormous ICBMs that can only be intercepted outside the atmosphere with larger ground-based interceptors. It's pretty obvious that the TV talking heads don't understand the difference. In a nutshell, Aegis ship-based missiles might well intercept short/intermediate range nukes aimed at Japan (if they were in the right place at the right time), but they can not hit ICBMs aimed at Australia (for example), or the US. For that you'd need the ground-based interceptors at Elmendorf (AK) or Travis (CA), and of course an ICBM going south toward Oz would be beyond the capabilities of any interceptor extant or planned.

    The US is probably safe, more or less, maybe, even if we have to launch a number of interceptors to get a hit. We've got plenty. Our allies, not so much.
     
  10. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    In Kim's case that's a bit of a grey area I think. Has the US ever officially recognized North Korea as a state? If not I'm is he covered under US law? How about under International Law? Then there's the lack of a peace treaty ending the Korean war which officially in the US wasn't a "war". The lawyers would have fun with this one if anyone cared to take Kim's part afterward.
     
  11. CAC

    CAC Ace of Spades

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    I was thinking the SEALS would go in after a strike...to end him (after war had been declared) - Im thinking the likelihood of a strike from Nth Korea is lower than 50% but like any weapon, once you have it, you want to use it...
    Read an interesting story yesterday of a Nth Korean government official who defected in 2014...he said the new sanctions from China are far greater than ever before...all NK businesses have been shut down in China...pretty much all trade has ceased...and said that NK had less than a year before total collapse...He said if you fly a satellite or plane over NK at night its all black! No lights...and that's just the beginning...People will starve large scale.
    This is good on one hand, on the other, if we take NK to the brink, what have they got to lose by at least moving on SK?
    NK sent a letter to Australia today "urging" us to move away from Trump...wow urging us to move away is different from 'dump them or die!" The rhetoric is already changing...Seems this letter has been sent to a number of countries...
    North Korea urges Australia to dump Trump
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2017
  12. CAC

    CAC Ace of Spades

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  13. JJWilson

    JJWilson Well-Known Member

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    I would be afraid of Chinese intervention if the U.S started hostilities, but I think China is agitated by North Korea because they are making any potential trades and business opportunities with the U.S and allies rather awkward. But hey what do I know........:p
     
  14. CAC

    CAC Ace of Spades

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    What does anyone really know when it comes to China...Any massive country has many agendas. I liken it to a little adopted brother...mouthing off expecting its big brother to protect them no matter what they do...Now China is taking at least one step back from that, sick of being embarrassed, the bad press and bringing the US an her allies closer and closer to her borders...China knows it has much more to gain by keeping "us" as friends rather than enemies...it doesn't want to possibly lose so much ground over a little backward state like NK...undergoing its own "perastroyka", NK is a thorn in its side IMO - it could sit back and let the US pull NK's head in...or do it itself under its own terms...which option would you go for?
     
  15. JJWilson

    JJWilson Well-Known Member

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    I highly doubt the Chinese would take military action against the North Koreans no matter the circumstances, China I think is willing to do whatever necessary to avoid war with everyone, even though they are building up their military and modernizing to keep up with Western Nations capabilities.
     
  16. CAC

    CAC Ace of Spades

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    I agree China is largely a peaceful country...but its a giant Dragon...like the US...it does what it wants.
     
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  17. JJWilson

    JJWilson Well-Known Member

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    China I think in some ways is similar to North Korea in that they push to see what they can do before the U.S or the international community gets ticked. They obviously would like to have Taiwan back, they have a real interest in creating a Gibraltar type of presence in the South China Sea, in a time of war, they could cut huge sea lanes greatly restricting trade in Asia and the Pacific. That is concerning, but I think they are justified in that regard, there is a U.S presence essentially all around them, (South Korea, Japan, Phillipines) It might purely be a defensive measure?
     
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  18. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    I'm not sure I would call China "peaceful". They have attacked a number of countries and made some pretty aggressive military moves in recent years. That said North Korea has done a lot to aggravate them in recent times and from what I can tell the Chinese are at least starting to view them as a significant threat. That said I wouldn't expect an outright invasion but stepping in to "insure the peace" or some such given the right cercumstances ....
     
  19. KodiakBeer

    KodiakBeer Member

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    I'd like to see our intelligence agencies drop disinformation about top North Korean officials plotting a coup. Let Kim go nuts purging his government, which might set off a real coup. If not, we could at least chuckle about him murdering off his own henchmen.

    .
     
  20. JJWilson

    JJWilson Well-Known Member

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    lwd in regards to China having attacked several countries, what is the most recent incident? I am purely curious, not trying to be contentious, and I agree China isn't completely peaceful.
    As fantastic as it would be for a coup to be successful, I highly doubt the North Koreans, even the higher ups, have the connections and materials to stage a victorious coup. Even if the Coup is a success, who's to say one of the Generals or advisers doesn't take over the role of Kim Jong Un?
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2017
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