The psychological effect on the Japanese was negligible and never made any meaningful impact to the war. On the American side, it sold a LOT of war bonds, and a big psychological "win" in the US. But was it worth it? Since it was successful and the carriers got away unscathed, it's easy to say yes. Especially since the war bonds sale bought us a couple of carriers...but those carriers would take a couple of years to build...Let's remember, this was early '42. Think of it this way... At that point in the war, the Japanese have a marked advantage in carrier strength. The Doolittle raid was a propaganda stunt that had NO strategic value to the war... What was at risk? Two carriers, when the Japanese already have superior carrier numbers. Imagine what would have happened if we lost one or both of those carriers? That's a HUGE risk for a publicity stunt. If they lost those carries, that publicity stunt would have cost the US tens of thousands of lives.
Yamamoto pushed for the attack on Midway to improve security for the Empire and the Emperor. They lost four carriers, among their best, there. We benefitted from the Dolittle Raid.
More to the point. Yamamoto had already planned Midway, but met resistance from both the Army & Navy GHQs in approving the operation. The Doolittle Raid evaporated all resistance to the Midway operation. Without Doolittle, Midway probable would have not happened.
Of course, there is the little discussed Japanese response in China, Operation Sei-Go, which resulted in more than 300,000 Chinese deaths, mostly civilians. Zhejiang-Jiangxi campaign - Wikipedia
Yamamoto's plan has been the subject of much criticism. Some historians state it violated the principle of concentration of force and was overly complex. Others point to similarly complex Allied operations, such as Operation MB8, that were successful, and note the extent to which the American intelligence coup derailed the operation before it began. Had Yamamoto's dispositions not denied Nagumo adequate pre-attack reconnaissance assets, both the American cryptanalytic success and the unexpected appearance of the American carriers would have been irrelevant. Isoroku Yamamoto - Wikipedia Well, that is war.....decisions,decisions,decisions....
I still remember my touch-typing fairly well, but sometimes one hand gets ahead of the other. I often end up typing my username as "Carroande". You know you're getting old when you can't spell your own name
We're wandering away from the Doolittle raid, but without codebreaking, there was no reason for any significant American naval force to be hanging around Midway, let alone every available carrier in the Pacific Fleet in the exact right spot to hit Nagumo as he launched his attack on the island.
To a point. However, Midway was far closer to our main base at Pearl Harbor. It would have been much harder to marshal our naval forces in the SWPA.
Do you think it was coincidence that the raid occurred while Kido Butai was off in the Indian Ocean, thousands of miles from Japan?
Not for a minute. But to get our carriers within range of striking Japan, that means you're in range to be hit back...or if spotted, hit first. The only thing scarier than carrier aircraft are land based aircraft.
But we were not striking Japan with short-ranged carrier-based aircraft, were we...We were striking them with B-25s. Further, the Lexington action in February, 1942, bolstered US confidence against land-based bombers. 15 of 17 G4Ms lost. Of course, the US carriers were spotted, and the US carriers did hit first...And ran before Japan could marshal it's air power to strike back.
While the Doolittle raid had no military value, and discounting the propoganda value, the Japanese people had been told their land was under divine protection. Ever since the "divine wind", the population had been told that their land would never be attacked. They were conditioned to believe that. Doolittle's attack began to introduce some doubt in their minds. That doubt would grow in 43 and especially in 44, despite the rosy picture painted by the press. In my mind, this made the raid a good thing.