Could the Western Allies Win Without the USSR?

Dunkirk wasn't purposely done as a "peace gesture" and either was Rudolf Hess's flight.

What if the USSR had to fight on two fronts in the early stages of the war, Germany from the West and Japan from the East?

 

The Pervitin (Meth) that the German soldiers were taking could only go so far. Von Runstedt told Hitler they had to halt in order to re-fit, rest, and let the lines catch up and consolidate. Hitler was also assured by Goring that The Luftwaffe could handle the men at the ports, and Hitler thought the Luftwaffe, a Nazi creation in the eyes of Hitler, should get the honor of defeating the British on the beach and preventing the escape.

 

I looked into this many years ago. Operation Overlord would have failed the Germans could field if allowed to up to 300 infantry divisions, 56 panzer divisions, and a further 100 divisions of mixed heritage. The Germans at their peak had over 11 million in the wehrmacht, then let's look at this, the Germans built over 1,000 u boats, the Germans built over 100,000 combat aircraft.
We do know that Italy would still be in the war, with German help, the Axis would have defeated the British in North Africa, there would be no success in North West Africa as the Vichy French backed by the Germans and Italian would cause a catastrophic failure of Operation Torch. The western allies would have resort to bomb Germany into submission

 

However did you arrive at the conclusion that Germany could have fielded "300 infantry divisions, 56 panzer divisions, and a further 100 divisions of mixed heritage"? Germany at peak fielded a Wehrmacht of What is "mixed heritage" BTW? At its peak number of divisions, there were much fewer than 456 divisions, nominally about 297, but far fewer in capability. The figure of 11 million as a peak for the Wehrmacht is incorrect too. It was actually 12.24-million, in summer 1944, just before the collapse. However, of that 12,24 million, 2.51-million were replacement troops in the Ersatzheer, 810,000 were in the Kriegsmarine, 1.5-million were in the Luftwaffe, of which about 1.2-million manned Flak guns defending the Reich against Allied air power, 2.3-million were noncombatants such as OT, NSKK, RAD, and various forms of Wehrmachtgefolge, Helfer, or Helferrinen, which left 4-million in the Feldheer, 600,000 in the Waffen-SS (about half of it truly effective), and 350,000 in "foreign" units, mostly Osteinheiten of dubious effectiveness.

The increase in divisions you propose would require a tripling of manpower in the Feldheer, which was impossible given the manpower situation in Germany.

Yes, Germany commissioned 1,154 U-Boot, but also lost 768 of them. They never had a chance to win the naval war with the U-Boot.

Yes, Germany built many aircraft, but many fewer than did the western Allies.

"We" do? Why? The Germans had zero prospect of defeating the Soviets before fall 1942. By that time, the Axis position in the Mediterranean was fatally compromised. A land victory in the USSR does nothing to change that. Italy may stay in the war, but it was a broken reed by 1943.

 

I thought the premis of this thread was that that Soviets and Germany were not fighting each other, also that the USA is still fighting the Japanese. You know that the Germans did transfer/convert the men from the Luftwaffe in a last desperate attempt to bolster field divisions. This also applied to the Kriegsmarine when they also reallocated thousands of men into field divisions, I also included the total numbers of Waffen SS units. Without hostilities from the Soviets now out of the picture, it is a different ballgame.

 

The problem is that even if the Soviets and Germans were not fighting, neither could ignore the potential rival across the border. And neither had the strength to project power across the sea. The major issue hamstringing German and Italian efforts in North Africa and the Middle East was a simple inability to transport men and equipment securely across the Med.

Yes, I do know. The first desperate attempt was 12 September 1942, when 200,000 Luftwaffe personnel began forming 20 (later expanded to 22) Luftwaffen Feld-Divisionen. The second was 1 November 1943, when the Feld-Divisionen were transferred from Luftwaffe to Heer control. The third was in June 1944, when 40,000 Luftwaffe personnel were transferred to the Heer and SS. The fourth was September 1944, when a further 100,000 Luftwaffe personnel were transferred to the Heer and SS. The transfers accelerated from there, especially as the Luftwaffe KG were dismantled. It accelerated from there.

The transfer of KM personnel began with 40,000 transferred in September 1944, which by the end of the month had been increased to 90,000.

Of course, all that is irrelevant given the problem is it is simply robbing Peter to pay Paul. The Germans did not have "11 million in the Wehrmacht" that could be utilized to organize 456 divisions as you propose. What they did have barely sufficed to organize the ramshackle 297-odd divisions and pseudo-divisions they did organize.

 

An immediate answer would be no...Certainly things would have been different without Germany needing to attack USSR...But the "Bomb" would still have been made...eventually taking care of Germany and maybe even the USSR should they try to take advantage...

 

Ok let us assume that German and Axis forces did not invade The Soviet Union then this would allow an additional German forces.
3.8 million troops
3795 tanks
3072 AFV's
5396 aircraft
23,435 artillery pieces
17,081 mortars
600,000 horses
600,000 vehicles.
These are the numbers for the Germans only

 

Sorry, but you have simply cribbed the Wiki figures for "Axis armies" as of 22 June 1941 and declared them "German forces". Aside from anything else. they are misleading and inaccurate.

The 3.8 million troops includes all Axis forces. The actual commitment of German troop numbers was 3,206,000, which included all Heer, Luftwaffe, and KM troops, as well as all noncombatant and paramilitary support forces. The actual strength of ground combat forces committed by the Wehrmacht was 2,765,276.

3,795 tanks is the upper limit of all Axis "tanks" committed, so included 230 Romanian H-35/R1, some 40 Slovak H35, and 150 clapped out Hungarian-owned but Italian-built CV3 tankette. The rest of the Hungarian tank "force" included former Polish tanks: 9 TK-3, 7 TKS, and 3 Renault R-35, and 80 Toldi I (Swedish-built Landsverk L60).

The German commitment, excluding the strategic reserve (2. and 5. Panzer-Division) was 3,604, of which 230 were command vehicles,85 were Flammpanzer II, and 180 were Panzer I. Otherwise, there were 187 Pz35t, 746 PzII, 772 Pz38t, 965 PzIII, and 439 Panzer IV.

The "other AFV" is a pretty wide rubric and includes 301 StuG, 257 PzJgI and sIG (Sfl), 1,055 SPW, 1,367 PzSPW, and 92 Pionierewagen and Munitrager.

5,396 "aircraft" is a pipe-dream. As of 21 June 1941, the entire Luftwaffe consisted of 3,512 were operational. By this time, the RAF alone exceeded the strength of the Luftwaffe.

600,000 horses? Sure. At a time when the British Army had none other than for ceremonial purposes and the American Army was rapidly phasing out its remaining horses in favor of motorization.

600,000 [motor] vehicles? Sure. Or at least close. There were roughly 450,000 Lastkraftwagen (trucks and lorries) and 127,208 Personnelkraftwagen (cars and other multi-passenger vehicles), and 10,748 half-tracked prime movers deployed to the Ostfront. The thing is though, there were only 201,112 LKW, 153,851 PKW, and 16,124 prime movers in the entire Heer as of 1 July 1941. While the Luftwaffe and KM had motor vehicles as well, they were a fraction of those held by the Heer. The major difference was requisitioned civilian vehicles, mostly French and Belgian - about 250,000 of them. That contributed to the heavy losses, mostly to breakdowns, of motor vehicles during BARBAROSSA - about 3.5% per month - which was problematic because it was difficult to provide spare parts and repairs to the plethora of types.

In any case, if Germany does not attack the USSR on 22 June 1941 that does not mean that even those forces that were actually German would be sent to overwhelm the British in North Africa or to defend Europe against an eventual western Allied invasion. For one thing, the Soviet colossus would remain a threat. For another, logistic constraints mean that getting German forces to Africa was an arduous process. As late as October 1942, about 15,000 German personnel were idling away their time in Sicily waiting for available shipping space and escorts to get them to Africa...this at a time when German forces in Africa numbered fewer than 55,000. Ditto supplies and equipment. Things were so desperate that personnel elements and light equipment of the Ramcke Brigade and 164. leichte-Afrika-Division were flown into Africa as reinforcements in September and October1942, utilizing most of the available German air transport assets. For the Axis, getting forces to Africa was like trying to empty an Olympic-size swimming pool through a garden hose.

 

Thank you, but I've spent the last 36 years finding out that I didn't know what the hell I was talking about for my first 32 years.

 

Ok here is my new take on your information.

Hitler kills himself in 1925, enough said.

 

One factor is that the Soviets not in a war against Germany, they don't get lend lease, however Britain gets more lend lease, making it more difficult for the Germans to effect a victory over Britain.

 

Here is something that I thought of.

I estimate that if Germany and the Soviet Union never go to war, then Germany could would have not accrued these losses.

Soviet claims of German losses on the Eastern Front by Grigori F Krivosheev.

42,700 tanks, tank destroyers, self-propelled guns and assault guns.
379,400 guns and mortars.
75,700 aircraft of all kinds.

 

That was Hitler's agender, but not in this case. Germany and the Societ Union do not go to war period.