In a 2001 issue of the Air Forces Monthly magazine, I read that if China were to launch ballistic missiles at Taiwan, the country's Patriot and AEGIS ABM systems would be insufficient to meet the threat. But are the AEGIS and Patriots really outdated, or just aging? PS I couldn't figure out which forum to put this in, so I put it here. Please move this topic to the appropriate forum if it doesn't fit in here. Thanks.
It depends what sort of missile is launched... Basically for the Patriot to be able to destroy a missile, it needs to ba able to do two things... Track the missile, then detonate close enough to it to destroy it... If the incoming missile is a stealth missile, like the Yahont, it may not be detected at all and thus no countermeasures will be launched, it depends how extensive the radar coverage in the area is (is it big enough to pick up the smaller radar signature?) So the Patriot could potentially have problems intercepting stealth missiles (as would any other missile system)... AFAIK no tests have been done upon whether the Patriot can detect stealth missiles... Secondly, the Patriot must be able to hit the offending missile... This largely depends upon the speed and trajectory of the missile... If the offending missile has a slower speed than the patriot, the patriot should be able to intercept it... If it is faster than the patriot, the patriot will need to be sufficiently close to the missile and it must be launched at the proper trajectory to intercept it... In Gulf War one, Iraqi SCUD missiles were apparently faster than Patriot missiles, thus there was some trouble intercepting them, and IIRC only about 40% were successfully intercepted... However the missiles used by Iraq often failed to hit their targets anyway, despite having eluded American ABM's... Nevertheless they demonstrate how a faster missile may be able to escape destruction... As I said before it really depends on what missile the enemy is using, how big its radar signature is, and how fast it travels... Also it should be noted that the Patriot is the only missile system to have actually destroyed a missile in combat
Not true. HMS Gloucester shot down Iraqi Silkworm missile with two Sea Darts during Gulf War in 1991.
not an abm system at all the aegis is not an abm system. it was designed to defend against incoming cruise weapons and air threats. it has been modified to perform limited theater abm missions. in fact the aegis is only the radar and guidence systems. there are no aegis weapons as such. as to why the systems mentioned may not offer protection is due to numbers- there is system that can yet handle large numbers of incoming warheads yet, geometry- most intercepts require the interceptor to be more or less in line with and facing the incoming warhead, and just the lack of weapons- china could easily launch more warheads that there are weapons to shoot back at them.
