In his book ‘Wilfred Freeman – the genius behind allied survival and air supremacy 1939 – 1945’ Anthony Furze says that in early 1938 it was clear that the British rearmament programme (for aircraft at least) was lagging behind that of Germany and there was much criticism of the Air Ministry from Conservative back benchers like Churchill and from the Labour Opposition. Much of this Furze says could be directly attributed to Chamberlain’s secret insistence that rearmament should not interfere with the normal course of trade, however, Lord Swinton the Secretary of State for air and Lord Weir, one of Swinton’s advisors on production had to accept the blame for the consequences of this ‘undisclosed constraint’ and resigned on 16th May 1938. If it had been Chamberlain who had got the blame and resigned at this time, who would have replaced him and what effect would that have had on the rearmament programme as Chamberlain was still dragging even then his feet convinced he could persuade Hitler to avoid war. Was Churchill in a position to become Prime Minister May 1938 or would someone else have replaced Chamberlain and if so would Churchill have even got the chance to become Prime Minister? Would Chamberlain’s 1938 replacement (if it hadn’t been Churchill) have been a better PM than Churchill? What would Swinton and Weir keeping their roles have had on the air rearmament programme – Swinton was replaced by Sir Kingsley Wood, a lawyer who by his own admission ‘did not know one end of an aircraft from another’.