As this thread is 'How could Germany win WWII?' rather than why Japan was going to lose I will offer my money back garranteed blueprint for victory. I will employ Germany's original Order of Battle and Industrial capacity. No Superweapons, underground secret factories built prewar and no superhuman SS Doomtrooper's. Ground war fall 1939-spring 1940 The war begins on Sept.1 1939 as scheduled, Poland is invaded and defeated. Denmark and Norway re seized. The atack in the west begins as scheduled. Here I depart somewhat. The BEF is a priority for destruction or capture once the allied line is breached. Since I cannot invade England I must hurt her army while it is reach of my forces. A b couple hundred thousand prisoner's as a bargaining chip would be nice, but to simply deprive Britain of so many ground troops early in the war will pay dividends for years to come. The Allied armies are defeated as historicly they were. Diplomatic Interlude Once all allied armies are defeated and scattered I will make a diplomatic push. I will offer to withdraw all Geman forces from France, Belguim, Norway,Denmark and Holland except for some minor territorial concessions ( Alsace-Lorraine, The Ardenne, Luxumbourg, Schleswig and parts of eastern Holland for a comprehensive peace with all nations at war with the Reich. I see no reason why the bulk of them would not agree, but England will almost surely hold out despite pressure by the governments whos country's is now occupied. I will do everything to encourage them to pester England to agree. When it becomes clear Britain will hold out, I will still offer the same terms to France, Belguim and Holland. Sorry Denmark and Norway I will retain you until Britain becomes reasonable. I will demonstrate That Germany is reasoable and mercifull victor, unlike the western Allies of 1919. France may keep her navy ( its no threat to the Reich) An army of 500.000 men (plus another 150,000 in her colonies). She may have a modest force of say 500 tanks and a Air force of say 800 combat aircraft.Belguim and Holland would be allowed forces of the same type propotional to their size. Large enough to assuage their pride, and small enought to be no threat to the Reich. The defeated nations could not enter into any foriegn aggreements without the approval of the Reich for a period of 10 years. Germany would require modest payments of food, natural reasorces and finnished products for the same 10 year period or until Britain came to terms. Lastly there would be a secret protocal that allows the Reich to run false flag purchasing company's to aquire materials overseas thru their ports. Naval Strategy (Surface) 1939 on The Reich must accept that it could never hope to effectively blockade Britain. While my surface units could sink a fair number of merchantmen, they will be eventually sunk one by one in cheap eay victories for the Royal Navy. So I will order all surface units (except Q-ships) home before the start of hostilities. My pre-war fleet will be joined by Bismark and Tirpitz. I will complete the Graff Zepplin and convert a port bound Liner to a auxillery Carrier. Once Bismark joins the fleet I will put Sharnhorst in to be upgraded with 15 inch guns as planned. Her sister will follow after Sharnhorst returns to the fleet. I have no intention of fighting with them unless a highly favorable or despairte occasion arises. They cost far too many reichsmars to throw away. They will train in the Baltic as a powerfull 'Fleet in being' A force of two large battleships, 2 small ones, three panzershieffes, and crusiers, eventually to be joind by 2 carriers would be a force that gives the Admiralty many a sleepless night. Forcing Britain too keep stong forces in home waters. The possibility that the French fleet might join with Germany's intact fleet would be a nightmare not worth considering. Naval Strategy (Subsurface) 1939 on Since I have concluded that I cannot blockade England effectively, I am not going to try too hard. I will build enough boats to force Britain to employ convoys and divert resources for convoy protection, but fewer than historicly. The resources saved on fewer boats and highly trained crew can be used elsewhere in the reich. The U-boats will not operate in the western Atlantic. They will be ordered to avoid American flag vessels, specially painted Liners on selected headings, and eventually flag vessels of France, Belguim and Holland. They will be ordered to take any oppertunity to sink RN warships, with particular attention to cruisers and above. This Battle of the Atlantic will not fatally hurt Britain, but will force her to spend asset's to win it. While not costing the Reich too greatly and giving the US less reason to join Britain. Air Strategy 1939 on. Germany has the best tactical airforce in existance, The Reich must build upon that. The Luftwaffe will deploy in Poland and west as historicly done. But starting in late 1939 the Reich will begin to develop a 4 engine Heavy bomber. A modest force of say 400 to 500 aicraft would be sought, with most of them ready by 1942-43. The losses not taken in the Battle of Britain (4,000 trained aircrew and some 1,900 aircraft) will help to make this target feasable. Other economies such as fewer U-boats and a smaller Heer will make this possible as well. The inclusion of a 'Strategic' bomber will make the Luftwaffe a more balanced force and give the nations of europe something to ponder. Germany must plan for English air raids, but with French/Belgain/Dutch nuetrality after a German withdrawl the British now have a new problem. They cannot overfly these areas without having their aircraft intered, or risk pushing these nations into the German camp actively. Further, British aircrews, either wounded or in damaged planes would have a strong inducement to 'opt out' of the war by landing at nuetral runways. The Reich now has a much narrower corridor of sky to defend. All to the good. No Battle of Britain will mean more fighters available for air defence, and will place the onus of 'Terror bombing' on Britain, adding to the difficulty of swaying US opinion. The Heer after the Battle of France Germay has about 150 divisions at the start of the invasion of France, but perhaps a third are not combat ready and many of her tanks need to be replaced with heavier types. The Ground forces will be capped at about 165 divsions, with the goal of mechanizing/motorizing perhaps a third of this force. 16 Panzer divisions and 32 Pzr Grenadier/Motorized divisions. The rest of the army will remain straitleg infantry, still relying on horse transport until enough trucks can be produced to replace the horses. Pzkw 38t's will be phased out after the battle of France with the factories retooled to produce Pz III's and IV's. The Waffen-SS will be limited to two corps sized formations of 3 divisions each. One a Panzer Corps with 1 Panzer and 2 Pnzr Grndr divisions. The other corps will be a 'Security' force with say 2 mountain and one cavalry divisions. This will ensure thier "elite" status and not overdraw resources needed to fill out the Heer and supply Germany's smaller allies. The Luftwaffe would be limited to a maximum of 3 divisions with 2 trained to jump or glider assault and the third as an 'Air transportable' formation. Fat Herman can have a Beglieght Battalion to drive around with, but no more! If either the Luftwaffe or Kreigsmarine find themselves with an excess of bodies, they will be transfered to the army as relpacements. No Marine brigades, no Luft Field divisions. Period. If the Heer is kept to a manageable number of divisions then a practicle and realistic program to feed replacement's to units in combat can be maintained, while maintaining combat efficentcy of deployed units. No half-trained cannon fodder with short TOE's. The 800 pound Gorrila, America American entry into the war against the Reich would be a disaster. Germany cannot defeat or even effectively attack the US. So all must be done to prevent a full US-UK alliance. Some materials and supplies will be sent, but US combat forces must stay on the otherside of the Atlantic. England will make emotional appeals to the American public to sway opinion. Every effort must be used to puncture England's 'heroic' image and portray them as stubbon and unreasonable. The offer of peace on generous terms is a good fist start. The withdrawl from France, Belgium and Holland will counter the English argument that the Reich only desires to conquer ALL of europe. No Battle of Britain and no threat of invasion of England will also counter the image of England 'Standing alone against impossible odds'. Limiting the U-boat war will also dispell the image of heroic Britain. No boasts of crushing England, but rather continuous appeals to stop the pointless bloodshead and return europe to peace must issue from the propaganda Ministry. While there is no way to completely garrantee no US involvement in europe, there is also no reason to make it easy for FDR and Churchill to pull America into the war. The Balkan Allies Hungary and Rumania are not ready for war. They lack Heavy artillery, good Anti-tank guns, AA guns and Tanks. This can only be provided by Germany. If Germany limits her army to about 165 divisions a greater number of good weapons could be sent to them. As the Pz 38t's are phased out, they should go to the Balkan Allies. As the PZ III's are overtaken by PZ IV's they too should find thier way to the allies. Germany must see thier allied army the way Russia did its Warsaw Pact allies. This is doable so long as Germany is not in its Russian Quagmire and wearing out as much as they lose in combat. The goal should be to have divisions at or about 60-75% of their German equivelents by 1942. What the Bleep to do about Italy Since sawing the boot of Italy off the continent of europe and allowing it to sink into the Mediterranean Sea is not a practicle solution Germany is stuck with them. Germany will try diplomaticly to keep Italy out of the war, but Il Duce will likely frustrate those hopes so I must plan on fighting in the Mediterranian area. The Materials used on French ports for U-boat pens and construction of the 'Atlantic Wall' would be deployed in Italy instead. Expanding ports, roads, rail and airfields. Ports in North Africa and transportaion networks would also be expanded as much as practicle. An effort by Britain in the Middle-east must be expected and countered. Malta will have to be taken to ease supply problems and as a base for Axis ASW units. The expansion of North African ports and Transportaion net should allow Germany to eventually deploy a larger force in theate, say 6 to 10 divisions. Combined with the Italian army there are enough forces to make the capture of Egypt at least possible. In any event too strong for Britain to defeat easily without US troops. Germany must give the impression that Egland cannot prevail so that political pressure from home, pressure from european capitals and hopefully, American indifference will force England to the peace table. Democracy's do not long suffer interminable wars with no prospect of victory and with Japan directly threatening thier empire, Germany has its best chance to 'end' the war in europe. With a european peace Germany can now plan a new war aimed at Russia. How Germany does that is a whole 'nother thread.