If Overlord failed...

What do you think would have been the outcome for Germany (and the rest of Europe if Operation: Overlord would have failed? Personally, I think two outcomes would have happened:

1. The Soviet Union intentionally goes around Germany to invade German occupied France. If this would have happened, most of Europe would have been behind the Iron Curtian.

2. Germany would have gotten a much needed moral boost and would have made some gains agianst the Soviet Union in Poland. But if Overlord failed I think the easter front was sealed after Stalingrad.

 

The question is: what would the UK and USA done next?

The probability is: regrouped and tried again. How difficult that would have been would depend on the circumstances of failure. If the landings went OK but the forces were defeated later, then anoth3r invasion could have been launched relatively soon because only a small proportion of the available forces went in the first wave. But if the invasion was defeated on the beaches with a heavy loss of landing craft etc, it would take longer to build replacements.

Tony Williams: Military gun and ammunition website and discussion forum

 

Another factor would have been that the Allies would have 'shot their bolt', ie given the game away....

All the various deception methods which had been honed over months ( Fortitude, Taxable, FUSAG, etc etc ) would have been revealed and second time around, the Germans may well have been better prepared.

 

Hitler's view was that if it was a catastrophe for the allies, he would sue for peace in the west. Leaving him to fight on one front, rather than three. Hitler wasn't the greatest tactition, it was probably more wishful thinking than anything.

They would probably regroup, maybe waiting to see what happened on the eastern front the following winter, before trying again.

 

If Overlord would have failed General Eisenhower would have resigned as supreme commander. He already had an apology note written. The first time I saw the note I was even of the opinion that it was the kind of note you find in someone's pocket who has killed themselves. Now you have a loss of a major campaign, loss of a good commander. Someone else would have been picked to be supreme commander. I have no idea whom, Patton, Montgomery, I really don't have the information to field a good guess. All of the men and equipment in England would either have to wait for the planning to be done again or be shipped into the Med. to attack up into France from Italy or up into the Balkan states from Italy.

German response would certainly be to maintain their presence on the Western Front and continue to strengthen the fortifications in anticipation of another such attempt, although I think it would be over a year before the reason for the failure was resolved and the new theater commanders could reorganize such a monster effort.

Russian response? I like the idea of the end around to France but it isn't very practicle. The Russian supply lines were difficult enough without putting themselves into such a precarious position. If they wanted to cooperate with the allies and open their second front back up maybe they would have changed their offensive thrust to give the allies a place to land near the Netherlands later in 1944. Then the US and Great Britain could have pushed through from the North while the Russians pushed up through the Balkans and Poland.

 

If the Overlord had failed that definitely would have been a huge military and propaganda victory for Germans. Just think of Göbbels making speeches of that...

Anyway, I guess it would take a year just because you could not try invasion until after several months and then it would be winter. So Hitler could gamble and move troops to the Eastern front and try to stop the Russian attack. Operation Bagration started 22nd June 1944 so they could not stop that but perhaps the Jan 1945 offensive if he dared to keep the troops in the east.

I suppose the next invasion would be southern France. The war would last 1-2 years longer but the outcome would not change. Depending on the German resistance and its success the Balkans might not be taken by Red Army forces.

 

If operation overlord fails and Hitler realize that the allies would require 1 or 2 more years to prepare again for the France landings, it could mean more trouble for Stalin.

And as KP said, a huge morale boost for the germans. And fair to say, also a morale boost for the german army.

The eastern front (where the biggest fighting has occured) will be even more bloody.

But yes, the outcome will still be the same. Only more death toll. Unless of course, the allies stop bombing german factories or sue for peace.

 

The Allies would not have sued for peace. Normandy required that 5-7 divisions be landed and that is the sum that would have been lost on the Allied Side. That isnt irrecoverable by a long way. Bagration would still have happened, there is no way at all that the Germans could have transferred troops that quickly. The most they could have hoped for would be a spoiling attack on the Russian Forces. The Western Armies would not have strenghtened the ostfront to the extent that they could throw the Russians back.

 

The way Hitler would have ordered them to go into action they would have been lost as well without any notable stoppage in Red Army movement.

 

I think the Russians would have pushed on without the allies and there would not have been a split Germany. Once the Russians reached German soil, the allies would have invaded again to save the Western countries from the Communists. It may have taken longer but not much given Hitler's state of mind and his unrealistic directives.

 

Aside from the fact it pretty much couldn't fail (Ohama was an absolute worst case scenario where everything went wrong and German opposition was far greater than anticipated), the US, at least, would have tried again under a new supreme commander; Eisenhower having resigned. It certainly would have been a US general and, Monty would have been absolutely furious. But, since he planned the Dieppe raid (getting out of that fiasco by taking 8th Army just before the operation) one could hardly expect great things from him if let loose to plan a second try.
What is really amazing is that the Allies expected to do far worse once ashore. Their planning was to be on the Rhine a year later or more. In reality it was closer to 7 months.
It was the sudden collapse of German resistance following the Mortain / St Lo breakout that took them off guard. They really expected the Germans to conduct a fighting withdrawal across France instead of the utter collapse and rout that took place.

 

There is one thing that was not possible for the Allies to control with logistics or predictions, the weather. Eisenhower took a calculated risk on the weather. It wasn't the best it could have been or the worst. If the weather would have been more severe despite the predictions then the Allies could have failed. Heavier weather could have resulted in greater losses before the troops hit the beach and more difficulty in resupply from sea after the troops were ashore.

Coordination was already problematic. Additional losses and further scattering of the men would not have guaranteed failure, but would have made the breakout off the beaches even more difficult and costly in terms of men and material.

Failure of the Allies to be able to land additional supplies and problems above those encountered in setting up the temporary harbors could have been the difference between a successful breakout and being stuck there in the coastal area.