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Nazi Party Comes to Power Later

Discussion in 'What If - Other' started by Carl W Schwamberger, Nov 29, 2010.

  1. Carl W Schwamberger

    Carl W Schwamberger Ace

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    This assumes that due to internal German politics the nazi party & Hitler are not able to enter the German government until 1936. I'm assuming no other changes on the Global political scene until then.

    Implication 1. France & other European nations do not see Germany as a rising threat until late 1937 or 1938. How does this affect the course of European politics from 1934 to 1938?

    Implication 2. Without the distractor of nazi Germany Italy thinks twice about it Ethiopean adventure. Would Italy still attempt this?

    Implication 3. German support of the revolt in Spain is late or nonexistant. Would the revolt & subsequent Civil War occur with only Italy as a instigator?

    Implication 4. Japan does not have the distractor of a rearming nazi Germany in 1937. Would Japan still attack China in that year?

    Implication 5. Reichswher research and development of weapons still proceeds at the 1932 pace.

    Implication 6. Germany had finally achived a realatively stable currency & some economic growth by 1932. Without the nazi fiscal mismanagement, rearmaments program, and showcase public works projects how does the German economy develop from 1933 to 1936?

    Any other ideas on what changes in events might occur?
     
  2. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    From what I've read the Nazi party was actually in decline when Hitler became chancelor. The question then becomes what changes to reverse the decline of the Nazi party in this case?
     
  3. theblackalchemist

    theblackalchemist Member

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    Well, then the jews wouldnt b e rounded up so soon now will they? and the entire holocaust might have been forestalled, and millions of lives might have yet been saved...

    thoughts differ, and we are just speculators...

    Regards,
    TBA
     
  4. belasar

    belasar Court Jester

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    Any attack on Russia suicide.
    Likely Germany gets Austria, any other territory unlikely, but then Nazi Germany might last till the '50s because they are afraid to attack better prepared neigbors, and Hitler's declining health. Possibly overthown by Heydritch?
     
  5. phylo_roadking

    phylo_roadking Member

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    This one I wopuld disagree with; particularly in the redevelopment of a German Air Force and the development of new aircraft. If you read E.R.Hooton, German plans to reconstituate and air force on home soil were afoot since 1930-1, while we all know how the Germans developed or rather retained their capacity in the air at Lipetsk in the USSR. It was aircraft developed/tested there that formed the bulk of the aircraft sent to Spain for some years until later designs like the HE111 and Bf109 were sent.
     
  6. belasar

    belasar Court Jester

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    It is an little viewed fact that the Wiemar Government had evaded the Versailles treaty by doing what they could to prepare Germany for a possible defensive future war and to spur theoretical and limited physical work on future weapon systems, but there was a limit to what they could do. It would take a government like the Nazi's, bent on open conquest, to fund the kind of development that they did. There is a functional limit to what you can do in secret.
     
  7. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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    So, rearmament starts later and the French and British are in a better position actually both economically and technologically to effect the outcome. With the still likely collapse of the Washington Naval Treaty both would already be building ships to counter Japan and Italy respectively regardless of what Germany is doing. The Maginot Line might have been extended or the French and British mechanize their military more. The British certainly would have as they were already fully motorized.

    Italy and Mussolini were going their own way regardless of Germany for the most part. I think Ethiopia would still have been taken by Italy. Given the extra time Italy might have even made it difficult for the British to take when war did come.

    Stalin and the Soviets are an instigator here too. It is likely Spain would still have had a civil war but it is possible the victor could be different. A "Republican" Spain under a communist rule would change things in Europe for sure, particularly in France.

    I really don't think Hitler's rise to power emboldened the Japanese so much as their own internal politics and ambitions. China would still likely end up in the same situation.

    Without Hitler's rejection of Versailles outright and the press by the Nazis to rearm Germany would likely have remained a second-rate power alot longer. Also the retaking / reunification of areas like the Ruhr and such might not have been done so Germany remains in a position less capable of rearming longer too.

    I doubt given world events that Germany could avoid a massive depression in the early 30's. I would think the best thing Germany could do is press for an end to Versailles and reparations as soon as possible. This would have allowed the nation to get on its feet. From there getting industry going again manufacturing things Germany was good at would have been the best move.

    Without a German rearmament program the British and French will be far slower to rearm themselves. The US will do so only with an eye to events in China and Asia. If anything, this scenario actually helps Japan by the British and French ignoring events in Asia more than they historically did. It is doubtful if Britain would have made a huge effort to build up and defend Malaysia without an existing war in Europe. France certainly would have ignored her colonies there militarily. The US would have made more effort towards building up defenses in the PI and probably would have given the Dutch more equipment but, on the whole Japan comes out ahead particularly if they choose to wage primarily a land war in China.

    I could see Egypt, India and, some other Commonwealth states trying to gain independence earlier in the vacuum of no war. This could also aid Japan and eventually Germany. The US would not have pressed so hard for a bomb and Germany would have remained the defacto leader in nuclear physics longer. This might have allowed German and Italian physicists to discover sufficent knowledge and theory to convience Hitler on the value of a nuclear bomb while depriving the US and Britain of that research long enough to keep them well behind in the race.
     
  8. Falcon Jun

    Falcon Jun Ace

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    One thing this scenario overlooks, at least in my view, is that this indirectly strengthens the Soviet Union's hand in the long term. That's as far I will go. I agree with T.A. Germany might have a chance to better develop its atomic theory. Except for one point, though. Once Hitler rises to power, his antics and his cronies would eventually derail whatever advances Germany has made because of their tendency to one up each other.
    Japan would go its on way and move into China in more or less historical terms. However, without the European war front at the time Japan moves, the US and UK would probably in a better position to preempt Japanese moves. And where is Germany in all of this. Probably biding its time as Hitler adjusts and gets his house in order. If the reverse happens and Japan distracts the Allies enough to give Hitler more breathing room, Hitler might not still be able to move because as I've pointed out earlier, there's the Soviet Union in position, at least on paper, to deter him.
     

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