How do you explain how Nimitz avoided this disaster completely? I think he was just smart and well informed. He knew PH could be attacked by a carrier force and it was a hard place to defend, being in the middle of the Pacific. He also knew, he would have limited resources, and that FDR's focus was on politics, not sound military strategy. He took the command after the war started, because he would get all the stuff he needed, well eventually he would anyway.