Von Fritsch stops WW2

The radical elements had their way in the Kwangtung Army only so long as it suited the leadership of the IJA and the Emperor.

In September, 1935, Major General Hideki Tojo was put in command of the Kempeitai of the Kwangtung Army and, on direct orders from the Emperor Hirohito, ruthlessly suppressed the fanatical elements in the Kwangtung Army. Many radicals were imprisoned, executed, or banished to remote posts where they would have absolutely no influence. Later, Tojo ascended to the position of Chief of Staff of the Kwangtung Army.

During the February 26 Incident (attempted coup in Tokyo) of 1936, General Tōjō came out against the plotters. Emperor Hirohito himself was outraged at the attacks on his close advisers, and after a brief political crisis and stalling on the part of a sympathetic military, the rebels were forced to surrender. In the aftermath, the Army was purged of radical officers, and the coup leaders were tried and executed. Following the purge, with Tōjō in a leadership position (Vice-Minister of the Army), the Japanese Army was responsive to the political (mainly Hirohito) leadership of Japan.

After 1936, the military radicals were unleashed only when it was useful to the highest leadership. Thus, if Hirohito and the highest Army leadership had been convinced that negotiation, rather than the risk of war with the US, was the preferred option, they would have been able to pursue negotiations to a successful conclusion with little risk from radical elements.

 

Getting back to von Fritsch......

 

Yes, it was 1938. Just prior to the Anschluss with Austria, which actually distracted the Army and the populace from the Fritsch/Blomberg Affair. Whether or not the populace cared is another story.

And the new Germany might be militaristic, true, but probably without genocidal ambitions. Which would be good news for alot of people. War maybe, Auschwitz no way.

I might be leaning towards civil war if my scenario happened, but if Hitler, Goering are killed outright (as I have it happening) and Himmler, Heydrich arrested and, more than likely, shot, is there another viable Nazi party member to oppose the coup? Hess, pushed by Bormann, Goebbels, or even Rosenberg could maybe try to stop von Fritsch, but I don't think any of them could rally all party members, let alone Germany, to their side.

 

Hello R. Evans,

the only group that would have threatend the "Fritsch Party" would have been the one that the Nazis managed to subdue or erase.

The socialists/communists.

IMO it would have been a matter of one or two years for this opposition to claim power from Fritsch. In case of the communists and the left wing of the socialists the Stalin component is not to be overlooked.

A communist/socialist Germany of 1938 is still a viable issue and it's support towards the French and Italian and Spanish communists should not be underestimated.

Would Europe besides England have become communist?

Regards
Kruska

 

Hi Kruska

AFAIK the Communist's party organization in Germany was completely broken by 1938, the Italian one certainly was (Mussolini had been in power a lot longer than Hitler) and didn't really recover before the 1943 armistice created a political void in Northern Italy. The Spannish Communists were clearly loosing the civil war by 1938 and had alienated both their moderate and extremist (anarchist) allies so no help will come from there, the USSR may want to send help but has no way of doing it with a militaristic Poland in between.
I believe that if the Army managed to overwhelm the Nazi party there was not going to be any opposition, most people feared a repetition of the post WW1 disorders so an armed opposition to the army is doomed by lack of popular support and weapons.
Germany was surrounded by anti communist nations after the fall of the French Leon Blum socialist government in April 1938.

 

Hello T.O.S,

you are certainly right about the revolution against Fritsch not happening overnight.
Due to the entire Leadership of the socialists and communits being outside of Germany or having a bad time in Dachau and other specific locations - the assasination of Hitler would have brought them back - unless Fritsch would have decided to set up a military Junta government - in which case the puplic in general would have been against him.

The majority of the Germans was very well aware that the militaristic attitude of the Kaiser had brought the 1st WW upon them - and it was the red's and dark red's that brought the military down in Germany in 1918.

The question would be if Germany in 1938 was already in an economical state of balance - which IMO it was not since Hitler had totally ignored inflation and currency ratios.
Without the Nazis contolling the economical issues and movement of trade - Germany's economic rise would have developed into an economic downfall over night creating a huge social unrest.

Regards
Kruska

 

I should not put much confidence in Shirer .I know the citation :imagine the commander of the atmy taking the salute at a parade and next him (!!) a foreign journalist ,journalists admitted to a military parade were-and ARE -directed to an other part of the tribune .The official area was and is only for officials . Let say :invention by a journalist .

 

The Japanese decided to occupy Indo China (only the coasts ) not because of the French defeat,but to prevent western help to China.

 

Japan could wage war in China,because the USA were selling oil to Japan ! Japanese $ did not stink,even after the rape of Nanking .

 

A point there. The Anschluss brought the nazi government a bit of fiscal time, with the Austrian government monetary reserves, and Austrian banks. A successor government would have been faced with the same problem for 1939-1940 as the nazis, encouraging economic growth and military expansion. Rapidly reducing military expenedtures could have created some fiscal sanity, but I am not expert enough to understand if that would have been enough. Would the new government been able to reliable and continue the nazi social and economic programs, or would those have to be cur back as well to keep Germany solvent? What would the short and long term effects of such military and other government expense reductions have been?

A second economic and socil question concerns the missing Jews. By the time of this coup the Jews had been effectively cut out of Germanys economy and social fabric. Not much chance on them returning to their former place in the near future. The effect on Germanies business, education, and general development of removing the Jews has been studied, but not widely published. So, there is a question of the effect of the removal of a portion of the better business and technology leaders from Germanies overall leadership.

Somehow I see the 1940s being only a slow improvement economically and socially over the 1920s & 1930s. That suggests further social unrest and rise of radical politcal partys, or another destructive war.

 

As weak as they were in 1945 the conservative & centerist governments of Western Europe 1945-1950 were able to resist Communist takeover efforts. Only where the Soviet army & security organizations predominated were Communist governments established. In 1939 Conservative or Facist partys predominated across Europe. As Europe slowly recovered from the depression of the previous two decades I dont see that changing much in the 1940s. A aggresive policy of Stalin or the USSR would serve to reinforce that as conservative & centerist political factions supported the anti Communist/USSR coalitions or leaders.

While it cant be said with certainity that a resurgent Left would not threaten several governments in the 1940s I think it unlikely.

 

Whether true or not, it makes for an interesting what if. And Von Fritsch's dislike of Nazism has been documented by other sources.

 

Such good posts on good threads. In any case, what you're talking about is a successful Valkyrie (have you seen that movie) except replace Stauffenberg with Fritsch and a bomb with an angry German with a gun. (Same difference?) The Valkyrie planners as well wanted to make it look like the SS and others were trying to take power, and it may or may not have worked. So this is the scenario you're explaining here:
~1935. Hitler is dead and Fritsch has taken power. The SS has been obliterated along with senior officers, Goering, and Himmler. Russia has not signed any pact with Germany but is still looking to expand its borders (as it showed with its invasion of Poland/Finland) so it builds troop concentrations along the Russian-German border.
Now it gets complicated.
1. Fritsch does not want to upset the allies, so he does not build his army above 100,000 troops with heavy weapons. However, he does build trenches on his border for protection, and the Allies, seeing that there may be military actions from Russia, do not protest. Russia does invade in 1936, let's say, but does not get far past the trenches that Fritsch has set up. Germany looks to the Allies for help, ironically, as they were the ones that got them into this situation with the Versailles treaty . Now it breaks into 2 more scenarios, but honestly I have neither the time nor the patience to discuss both. Let's just say that the Allies have the grudge against Germany fresh in their minds and do not give assistance. Russia overruns Germany and gets to Berlin, forcing a German surrender and annexation. Now Russia thinks, why stop there? They annex Austria, Czechoslovakia (spelled that wrong, I know) and most countries it can get its Ruskie paws on. The Allies protest these actions and prepare for war. Basically, replace the Germans with Russia and no eastern front, and you have the same war, with a lot of technical differences. You figure it out, I need to write scenario #2.
2. Fritsch doesn't give a flying rat's bum what the Allies think, so he builds his army up to 10x the limit proposed with Me109s, panzers, and Flak 88's. The Russians can't do squat against the German defenses and stop short of Berlin. A counterattack by Germany takes the Russians back to the Oder and more. The Soviets sue for peace, seeing that this will not be an easy war, but Germany does not accept and asks for the allies help in taking back the territories taken by Russia. Again, 2 scenarios, but let's say the Allies do help the Germans. WW2 is basically the eastern front and nothing more with the Allies with the Germans instead of against them. The territories taken by the Russians are liberated, and "WW2" ends in a stalemate. Casualties are relatively light compared to 60,000,000 killed in WW2. Now I still haven't talked about Japanese expansionism, but I'm done for now.