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What if the US lost in Guadalcanal?

Discussion in 'What If - Pacific and CBI' started by Falcon Jun, Oct 12, 2007.

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  1. Falcon Jun

    Falcon Jun Ace

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    I subscribe to this assessment as well. If I remember correctly Clausewitz once said, "Attack in mass, not in dribbles."
     
  2. Carl W Schwamberger

    Carl W Schwamberger Ace

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    The Japanese thinking seems to have been coming from two directions;

    1. The time required to assemble the cargo ships for embarking a corps, and to supply a corps which would have been much more.

    2. That the sissy Americans needed only to be bitch slapped to retake the airfield & island.

    Various numbers are given, but the best case analysis suggests that in the summer of 1942 Japan barely had enough cargo ships running to carry essential cargos. There was no slack to accomadate abrupt changes in shipping scehdules or to add on tasks. Other more pessimist analysis suggest there was acute shortage of cargo ships vs the baacklog of important stuff to supply Japans industry, and for consolidating the completed military ops.

    The conquest of the Alled territorys in the previous nine months had seemed easy. The news reports said so, and the official military documents reinforced that. Most Japanese leaders still thought the enemy soldiers, of any nation no match for Japans men. There were pleanty of indications that this was not so, but the Japanese leaders were mostly ignoring them. Col Ichiki may have been disobeying orders when he attacked with his thousand man detachment. There were other regiments on the way and orders for a larger attack.

    Even when large divsion & multi divsion attacks were attempted the support by cargo ships was inadaquate. The plans seem to have been based on the idea that the strike force would defeat the defenders before a resupply was necessary.
     
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  3. Falcon Jun

    Falcon Jun Ace

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    It would seem so. The Japanese seemed to have a tendency to consistently over estimate their capability and that's a major reason why they lost. Yamamoto's assessment that Japan would run rough shod over the Pacific for about a year was spot on.
     
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