What if the USA had stayed out of WW1?

Ok, this is a WW1-What-If, but it has been debated below, and I preferred the What-If-Section...
so what do you think, how decisive was the US declaration of war against Germany for Allied victory? And how much did the Zimmermann telegram really contribute?

 

As I stated in the earlier discussion; militarily speaking, I don't see major repercussions in the war, since the British would have implemented a convoy system anyway and the Germans would have starved even more than they actually did.

And thanks to the Allied technological, logistical and numerical superiority, Germany would have been defeated after all. Just by mid 1919, I suposse, because of its lack of men reserves and food.

I can see further consequences, much more important. The first, that a wilder and bigger revolution might have happened in Germany. Maybe a full-scale civil war, though the stablishment of a bolshevist régime is still very unlike. And the second, and most important, Great Britain, France, Italy and Belgium would have pressed even more at Versailles and a much better treaty would have been created, without Wilson's unfounded idealism. France might have annexed the Rheinland and made the Rhine her new border, along with harsher measures against Germany.

 

Herr General,
I agree. Everyone expected the revolution to happen in Germany due to them having the biggest Socialist movement in Europe pre-war, and I think it would have if they hadn't given Lenin a free rail ticket to Russia.
I also believe the Allies would have won anyway, having been able to take advantage of revolutionary turmoil in Germany to close the Western Front down sooner.

Regards,
Gordon

 

After the loss of Spring 1918 battle I have a feeling the Germans could not have won the war..

 

Nobody will deny this one, Kai... I don't even question that the Spring Offensive was lost right from the beginning. Even if the Germans had even taken Paris, who cares? France doesn't resign, and more and more American soldiers will turn the tides...

But ask this: Would the Germany have lost the Spring Offensive with America out of the war?

Don't take into account just the number of soldiers present at that time, mainly think about Allied moral. They knew now: "We just need to hold out a little longer; soon masses of Americans arrive and give us a certain victory."

Without this aspect, I deem it perfectly likely that the Allied front lines will collaps in 1918.

 

Yes,

I´m sure the allied had the moral advantage of the US troops approaching to help. On the axis side I have turned to wonder Ludendorff´s actions. Was he before the attack thinking that it would not work? The troops were not prepared to follow their success it seems. I think that would have been quite awful if the German High Command did not believe they had a good chance...

 

I've read that the famished German soldiers were too busy looting the captured food storages. Doing that, they also lost trust in their propaganda, as they had been told that the British soldiers suffered the same way as they did. For these reasons, discipline collapsed.

PS: There was no axis in WW1.

 

All nations in 1917 were on their last legs, Allied morale was at an extremely low ebb, the arrival of the US in the war did go an extremely long way in boosting this morale, as everyone was looking at the US as a massive war chest (Which in the beginning it most definitely was not, the US had to borrow other Allies weapons to arm their soldiers in the first phase of US involvement), and that all they had to do was hold the line for the Americans to arrive in great numbers with the backing of American Industry and the enemy had to lose, which for the most part is true, American industry takes awhile to gear up, but once it does, it truly does become a war chest.

Without this tremendous boost of morale, it is possible the Germans could've made a breakthrough during Ludendorf's offensives, though anything beyond that I am unsure of. But beyond the what if of Germany winning, if the Allies had won without US support, Europe would have entered soemthing like the Great Depression immediately following World War I. The US handed out millions in loans before entry in the war, and once they entered, the Allies could now borrow from the US as a wartime ally, not having to repay it, this was very useful for the European powers, who by 1917 were on the verge of bankruptcy, had the US not entered the war, it is likely Britain and France would have ended up like Post war Germany.

 

DIdn't you say that the offensive was lost since the beginning?

I don't think it was lost since the beginning, however it had small chances of success.

However, with Americans in or out the war it wouldn't have made that much of a difference. The Allied morale was low then —even with the Yanks at the rear learning what the heck a trench was— but they resisted and stopped the Germans.

French, British and Dominion troops were not literally starving and their domestic front was not about to collapse.

Correction. Not in the early neither in the last phase of US involvement they were ready for war. 90% of their machine guns, artillery, ammunition, helmets, planes and tanks were supplied by France and Great Britain.

Its contribution to war was almost insignificant. A complete total-war economy would have been achieved until mid-1919 in the US... They only provided the moeny to keep France and Great Britain's war ecomomies going... —the US' main and most significant contribution to Allied victory.

Stil have many doubts about this...

Actually, inflation and unemployment immediately after WWI did cause a severe depression in Europe. US loans during and after WWI prevented even worse consequences.

 

Its contribution to war was almost insignificant.</font>[/QUOTE]Afaik they produced about half of the total Allied ammunition in WW1, this is definitely not what I call insignificant.