What would have happened if the Second Republic had won the Spanish Civil War?

I want to start this thread because i think it's something interesting to discuss about, something i have thougt about many times, do you think Spain would have been invaded by the Germans? Used as a way to enter Europe like Italy? Used by the soviets as another forced-recruitment location perhaps? make your guess!

 

Hitler had a privet meeting with Franco, to convince him to join Hitlers War Machine after Franco left, Hitler went into a hysterical rage, Once Britain was conquered I'm Sure Spain was next on the list. Spain has Minerals and Metal Mines++++ and Oi, which were badly needed by Hitler.

Why did the Nazis make no attempt to invade Spain Portugal Sweden and Switzerland?
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Why_did_t..._invade_Spain_Portugal_Sweden_and_Switzerland


The role of Admiral Canaris

I must now consider a member of the conspiracy who's namely Admiral Canaris, the Chief of Intelligence. Since Canaris was peace-loving and Hitler a war-monger, he worked against him. His biographer Abshagen expresses it thus: "That Canaris took the opportunities, such as when reporting to Hitler or to Keitel, to influence the supreme leadership in a manner that seemed to him to be sensible and morally irreproachable.

The Attitude of Spain

There is no question that Spain intended to join Germany in order to gain possession of Gibraltar. I hardly need to explain the advantages that would have accrued to Germany from control over the Mediterranean. Herr Canaris thwarted this in early September 1940 by having Dr. Josef Müller, a member of Intelligence, tell the Spanish Foreign Minister Serrano Suner, who had visited Berlin only shortly before: "The Admiral begs you to tell the Caudillo to keep Spain out of the war at all costs.

While Franco had written Hitler a confirmatory letter as late as September 22, 1940, he was cold and unapproachable at the conference in Hendaye four weeks later - because he was in possession of information whose source was Canaris.

http://clarysmith.com/scriptorium/english/archives/worminapple/wa16.html

 

Blue;
Almost certainly Hitler would have moved against the Republic in 1940-even with a stalemate in Spain. He could not have left a Soviet base in his rear. ANd again almost certainly Hitler would have seized Gibralter-there was really nothing in terms of conventional forces to stop him. This would have meant another Jugoslavian style guerrilla war for the Third Reich-something NAZI ideology just about guaranteed.
JeffinMNUSA

 

I do not think Spain would have been too vital. There were certain advantages but also drawbacks, the frontier with France is the Pyrenees mountains, this obstacle, IMHO, would have been enough to ward off any attempt to take Spain by force. Yes they could have been crossed, but it would have taken time, and losses.

I also do not think you would have had to worry about the Soviet Russia recruiting all the men because they could not move the to Russia post Barbarossa.

For the same reason that Italy was not a good way into Europe, Spain likewise would not prove to be such a door.

 

Tikalal;
I disagree-taking Gibralter would have crippled the Brits and Spain would have been a great pool of cannon fodder for the Reich-as well as the above mentioned mineral resources and the industries in Catalonia and the Basque North. Hitler considered attacking Francoist Spain more than once as it was, and a live peoples' republic in that land would have been more than enough excuse. The only reason for delaying an attack on Spain in 1940 in such a scenario would be so as not disrupt his plans for 1941, as an attack on the USSR any time after 1941 would probably have been a disaster.
JeffinMNUSA

 

I understand your reasons. I believe that the Germans saw them as well and felt that the pain was not worth the reward.

How would Germany have used the Spanish manpower?

 

If the Republic has won the ECW, here we would have had a "Democratic Republic " ... Like all that actually suffer the eastern Europe after the WWII.
Just take a look to the Sucesos de Mayo NKVD killing other leftisch in the spanish soil during our civil war. Or take a look of this guy: Orlov

The reward was low, I could agree with you, but if Hitler wanted to launch Barbarossa, he could not left the Spanish harbours waiting for something like "Torch". Left a Stalin's pupet Republic in your back?

If any kind of miracle avoided the comunism in a victorious Republic...well in fact the only way to that would have been the direct intervention of GB and France... so what would have happened in July 1940? ... And after Seelöwe was postponed indefinitely?

The Pyrenees have never stopped an invasion. It wouldn´t have stopped Hitler. The main obstacle would have been the Iberian gauge. and the "guerrilla".

IMHO. Neither have stopped the allies: In Italy you have a very strait front ... so you found Montecassino ...In the Pyrenees your front is so more wider. 425 Km (263 Milles)... The Allies launched Husky to re-open the Med, so if Hitler had been in Spain ... Just for that, Torch invasion would have been launched against Morocco and the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula.

 

I agree, the Pyrenees didn't stop the romans or Napoleon (this last example isn't very accurate because in fact we let them in) Hitler would have entered easily, but not without fighting. The real problem would be the "guerrillas" as efestos says, the spanish most efficient kind of warfare, it proved to be dangerous for the french (the best army in those times), why not for the germans (the new best army)? I think Guerrilla operations would have been bigger and more ambitious than the french resistance's, like in the 1800's. This would have been a marvellous chance to infiltrate allied agents and bleed out the german forces. Besides, the north of Spain is a very difficult terrain for mechanised combat, (which would have left left the germans a bit single-handed) and excellent for ambushes, in those conditions, the infantry would decide the invasion. As for the Iberian gauge, the german bombers would have found it easy to destroy.

 

It would have been something to see the Army of the Democratic Republic of Spain invading France though.

I will defer to los que estan ahi, about the partisans.

Had the med been under axis control, I think the Americans would have persuaded the British to land in France instead of Africa/Spain.

 

It is a little candid isn't it?

Obviously you wouldn't have seen it. If Hitler didn´t invaded the Iberian Peninsula, Remember in this case Spain is a Stalin´s pupet Republic. :

Probably our grandpas would have seen Patton landing in the Harbours of Tanger an Cádiz (Western Task Force - Torch) Lloyd Fredenhall ( Center Task Force) in Valencia and/even Lisbon and Kenneth Anderson (Eastern Task Force) In in Barcelona. Oh! I miss Bilbao and La Coruña.

If Adolph had been here, delete Barcelona even Valencia. Would you plase say me how do you launch "Torch" trought a closed Gibraltar strait?



Upss Phone ... more later

 

I wrote "Remember in this case Spain is a Stalin´s pupet Republic" because for these guys, was more important the comunism and the power than the wellfare of their own people. They showed: the Republic had no way to win the SCW after the North campaign (1937) but keep on the war trying to arrive to the WWII. (As power was actually more important than the spanish people for Franco).

In fact that was the only way for a Republic victory. The soviets didn't send enough suplies (But they charged to the Fund account of the Republic) and except the planes and tanks the arms were old fashioned.

The advisres weren't able to do anything (Great purge send the Red Army doctrine back to WWI) but Paracuellos (something like Katyn) and the Purge of the POUM (see in this forum).

So (IMHO) a victorious Republic means necessary the Foreing Legion and The Royal Navy settled in Spain in 1940... So something like Marita Operation would have been launched in my country in july 1940.

PS: The SCW costed arround 300.000 victims including the repression in both evil sides.

"Marita" and the subsequent Nazi repression costed 545.000 in Grece.

Aristides de Sousa Mendes saved 30.000 judes , Sanz Britz and others 3 or 4 k.

How many italian victims costed the Liberation of Italy?

 

I was assuming that if Spain was a puppet, and Germany did not attack it, that at or after the invasion of Russia, Spain would have attached occupied France.

So lets say that Spain is communist, Germany invades after the failed attack on Britain. This means, that Spain would have been conquered sometime between November 40 and Summer 41?

This would close the Med from the Atlantic side. Would Britain still fight in Egypt? Would they pull out once Spain fell? I think so.

So all this happens and then in December 41 the US comes into the war and argues that an invasion of Africa is a waste of time and that the real fight is in Europe, which they did believe. With nothing to start from in Africa, I think the the US would have won the argument and that you would not have seen an attack on Spain but on France but in 42 or 43, most likely in 43. Spain could have been a possibility but with the invasion of France any German armies there would become cut off and need to retreat or surrender. IMO.

 

I don't think so: In fact the MED was actually closed , only the most urgent convoys were sent across the Med. May be it would have mean the Malta's fallen.

More, the US an GB studied the possibility of a NW Europe invasion in 1942 ... and finally launched Torch, they weren´t (or the GB thought) able to defeat the Panzar divisions at this moment.
The western Allies should do any thing to satisfy Stalin, at this moment only the SU was really fighting against the Nazis.

IMHO we could be sure that the GB would tried to conquer the Canary Islands (NO they would have settled bases there) May be yet after Barbarossa. So the operations against the Spanish Sahara and then the Morocco and S an SW of the Iberian Peninsula, would have been a a logical continuation of that operation, not risky and may be enough to satisfy Stalin.

ANd YES: It would have been something to see the Army of the Democratic Republic of Spain invading France though. I guess it would have done with Patton, Monty and the goumiers.

 

I suspect that the only real difference would be that Spain doesn't offer up a division of troops. Other than that, they remain neutral and Hitler is content to leave them alone.
Taking Spain, which the Germans could have done, only adds about 2000 miles of coastline to defend. This was a major problem for Napolean when he invaded the country.
Overall, all taking Spain does is add to Germany's problems not alleviate them. So, either side winning the Spanish civil war is going to be in no shape to help the Germans and taking the country would only make things worse.

 

Well in fact the major problem for Napoleon was the pepole´s sublevation ... (Bailen) and Wellington. I could agree with you, but I don´t think Hitler would have left a Stalin´s pupet Republic ( mountains and Harbours for the western allies) in his rear.

In other way, Göring will answer your post, sir.

From this Forum posted by BrnDirt1 : A Goering interview...

(Actually Franco begged for 900.000 tons of oil plus grain etc... before enter the war.)

All of taht could be just a couple of lies, but actually the nazis planned to attack Gibraltar. And they lost such a good part of the U - botes in the Biscay Bay.

Canary Islands were under the rebel´s rule since the SCW started. Under a victorious (and comunist) Republic the islands would have remained in the nationalist power (non-intervention of GB)... The same in the Spanish Morocco (Idem).

Italian troops almost occupied the Balearic Islands since the end of 1936. (Idem) ... Non Grece stupid invasion?

And you would have had local, loyal and fanatical troops to fight the maquis.

And a what if in the What if... What if the Italian fleet flee to Cadiz - Lisbon -La Coruña - Bourdeaux - Brest before the Taranto attack? (and got German Radios and Radars in the process of course) ... Are these Ships enough under a victorious LW (wich actually didn´t got it) to launch Seelöwe?

It wouldn´t have worked, but knew that the nazis?

 

The Nazis also planned to bomb New York City, but couldn't.