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What if?

Discussion in 'War44 General Forums' started by Cabel1960, Jan 29, 2007.

  1. Cabel1960

    Cabel1960 recruit

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    If there had not been a war in the east against Russia, what is your views on what would have happened in the west when the invasion occured?
    I dont think that the out come would have been the same personally as the Germans would have been more in volume around Normandy at the time of the invasion and maybe would have stopped them leaving the beach. Now i know this is speculation and that i would have hated any other result than what did happen, but i cant help wondering what if? This is only one of many "What ifs" that i have but i dont wnt to inundate you with to many at this time..
     
  2. Dave War44

    Dave War44 Member

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    I found an article recently that makes fairly uncomfortable reading at times but I think will go some way towards answering your question. Here's an excerpt:

    Original article HERE

    It's also interesting that Operation Sealion - Hitler's plan to invade the UK - would almost certainly have failed. According to the famous "Wargame" carried out at Sandhurst in 1974 the Germans - without air superiority - would have been able to establish a beachhead in England, but eventually they would have been forced to surrender. Had not so many German resources been deployed on the Eastern front, however, then the likely outcome to this may also have been different....
     
  3. Jim

    Jim New Member

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    Funnily enough i like the "What ifs" myself, purely on the fact that it can be a never ending conversation where an input by any one person can change the What if, of another, with his reply to the what if..

    Hope that you understood that.. :silly:

    Great reply Dave as usual :thumb:, and the link speaks volumes. Need to come back to this. :wtf:
     
  4. Kelly War44

    Kelly War44 New Member

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    OK, the Russians had 300 - 400 divisions, ridiculous amounts of armour and the largest airforce (ever?). The Luftwaffe destroyed the Russian airforce but couldn't beat the RAF. Our Navy was the best on the Seas. Although heavily outnumbered in all aspects we still held our own. :madman:
     
  5. Dave War44

    Dave War44 Member

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    I agree with you Kelly. The article does make uncomfortable reading, but for me the bloke argues very strongly and has a good angle. He's dug in and I find it hard to ignore. In the end, though, he also has a book to sell :lol:
     
  6. Cabel1960

    Cabel1960 recruit

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    The thing is Kelly, the Russians were not as well trained as we Brits or the Yanks were, infact the majority of them wasnt trained at all just given some bullets and told to pick up a weapon when a comrade was shot. As for the pilots they were learnt how to fly basics and then sent off to war? I am not taking away the fighting skills of the Allies far from it, but you have to look at the way others fought and compare , take the Germans for instance, they eally thought that they were invincable until the Winter weather told them different. You can have million untrained soldiers fight 100K well trained soldiers and the 100K would win on tactics alone, the 1 million soldiers would only charge and have no idea in combat. :thumb:
     
  7. Dave War44

    Dave War44 Member

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    :ponder: I think I'm starting to catch your drift on that one now Jim !

    But that's not what happened ! What if fact is stranger than fiction ?! :D

    A German officer wrote privately as Barbarossa unfolded something along the lines of: An elephant can attack ants and do well at first, but eventually it will be overwhelmed. (Sorry can't find the orig quote). It is true though that in May 1941 the invading Axis forces outnumbered their Soviet counterparts defending their Western borders. About 5 million men - the bulk of them German and the best trained soldiers in the world at that time - faced about 4 million Soviet ground forces. OK the Red Army was paranoid and for the most part badly organised;... and from that point on the Soviets proceeded to recruit 30 million more;... and also eventually diverted battle-hardened Siberian fighters to the western fronts...

    Yet the tactical/logistical blunders that caused the invasion to fail were all made by the Germans!!!! No plans to deal with the winter; delayed start to the invasion; delayed advance on Moscow etc. etc....

    And the elephant was overcome by the ants !
     
  8. Kelly War44

    Kelly War44 New Member

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    Excellent point, very well put dave. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but......

    Am I right in thinking Hitler had taken over as Head of the Military by now and therefore the fault/blame lies directly with him???:oops: :ponder: :ahg:
     
  9. Dave War44

    Dave War44 Member

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    Cheers Kelly and yeah, that's the way I understand it.
    Hitler had convinced himself he was some kind of military/strategic genius, and was pulling all the strings. He was playing the three Field Marshalls on the Eastern front - Von Bock, Von Rundstedt and Von Leeb - off against each other.
    Also one reason he shirked the direct route to Moscow was out of pure superstition, as it had been the same route taken by Napoleon.

    I'm getting most of this from Antony Beevor's "Stalingrad" BTW, it's a great read ; )
     
  10. Cabel1960

    Cabel1960 recruit

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    Stalingrad is a very good read, and your correct with the words of Hitlers was ruling the roost, but when the Germans first invaded Russia it was like the invasion of Poland, Belgium, France to name a few. It wasnt until the first winter that things started to go wrong. The winter also gave the time that the Russians needed to organise themselves better to fight of the invasion. The cold weather which at sometime was down to -35 to -40 degrees was what the Germans overlooked in my opinion as this type of weather would stop anything in its tracks.. Could go on but dont want to use all my energy in this one post. :fag:
     
  11. Dave War44

    Dave War44 Member

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    Yeah, well sort of ! When they first invaded the supply lines were short, just as they always would be in all other countries the Nazis had invaded as compared to the vastness of the USSR. By the time the winter came they were a long, long way from home. On top of this the Russians were skilled night fighters which the Germans hadn't foreseen, and they were never about to surrender. A German commander commented that even with flame throwers it was nearly always difficult to get the last surrounded man out....

    It was in the winter that things started to go visibly wrong, but I'm not sure that necessarily means this was because of the winter itself. Stalin's Siberian divisions were facing the Japanese in way worse weather than in Moscow, and the Finnish-Russian War was fought out in harsher weather. So I'm not sure that it's true that this weather would "stop anything" as you say...
    Most of the Red Army soldiers had winter clothing, and they could keep their tanks, aircraft and small arms mechanisms oiled and running while the Germans could not. The Luftwaffe had to start large fires under each aircraft engine before they could start them ! Same for the German tankers. Repeated German requests for winter supplies were turned down. After one request by General Paulus, Hitler even banned any talk of problems with winter ! So with better planning maybe the winter would not have been the huge problem to the Germans that it turned out to be?
     
  12. Jim

    Jim New Member

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    Without doubt the weather is a major factor in War, just about everything is worked around this including the D-Day invasion. General Paulus is another story that may one day be added to the forums... :tong:
     
  13. Dave War44

    Dave War44 Member

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    Agreed the weather is a major factor, and any military planner would be stupid not to take it into account. But does it win and lose wars ? I don't think so.
    Imagine the world-conquering Napoleon and Hitler - world conquerers mind! - forgetting to take into account the normal Russian weather at that time of year!! The weather is predictable, they were not stopped by freak weather or a weather disaster, they were stopped by their own megalomania and bad planning. In a sense they stopped themselves. Both their campaigns were lost before the really bad weather even started! Hitler's generals were in no way frightened by the prospect of a Russian winter, but they would have been terrified at the prospect of being made to suffer terribly and unnecessarily and of handing over the initiative to the defenders simply because their high command was completely nuts...

    D-Day is a good example of why this weather stuff does not wash. Launched in the worst weather in years, in "barely tolerable" conditions, truly awful weather by any standards. Yet D-Day was a military success !

    And they say that "The Russian Winter" stopped Hitler and Napoleon...
    I don't buy it.
     
  14. Kelly War44

    Kelly War44 New Member

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    Maybe indirectly. You must admit it was a major factor, even though it was Human (?) error that misjudged it in the first place.
     
  15. Dave War44

    Dave War44 Member

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    Yes Kelly I admit it:

    !

    Check these links and you'll see exactly where I'm coming from:

    http://www-cgsc.army.mil/carl/resources/csi/Chew/CHEW.asp

    http://libraryautomation.com/nymas/Changjinjournal050222.html

    Quote:
     
  16. Kelly War44

    Kelly War44 New Member

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    Dave, I wasn't disputing what you said there. I agree that they were their own worst enemy. I was only pointing out that it was BECAUSE of what you said! I think that's right:cheers: :ehm:
     
  17. Dave War44

    Dave War44 Member

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    :wink:
    OK mate I'm just trying to be clear in what I'm saying, trying too hard maybe ...

    Still it was worth it to cut through to the truth. Before this thread started I would have thought the same thing about this winter of '41-42. Now I would stand on Heinz Guderian's coffee table wearing felt boots and a big furry hat and argue the opposite 'til I was blue in the face....
    :lol:
     
  18. Kelly War44

    Kelly War44 New Member

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    And a signed photo of that would look astounding on my wall. 36" x 24" will suffice.:yeah: And so say the :gang: :thumb:
     
  19. Dave War44

    Dave War44 Member

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    ROFL !
    Sorry 'can't oblige, but I know someone who might be able to help.....:wink:
    :happy:
     
  20. Jim

    Jim New Member

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    See what i mean from my first reply.. :eek:i:

    It can be soooooooooooo much fun playing "What If" :lol:
     

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