Corona Virus - How is that working for you?

I just got my Jeep back from my mechanic. His biz is real slow and the tow business is dead. I spent the whole stimulus check locally. I'm a Patriot. Saving the economy.

@Slipdigit. I'm pretty sure the R value is the rate of infection spread. The number of people that an infected person will infect. In my post, the RO value went from 3.31 people infected to .52 after locking down. R0.0 is the goal. Remember tat the number of infected is exponential not linear. If I look at this war in a WWII frame of mind, we've gained the beach but we're shooting M1's and fighting against Panzers. We need to hold our ground trying not to die until the guys in the rear can get here with the gear. 1,000,000 reliable tests and 100,000 people to do tyhe testing.

 

Could be a rough Fall. Maybe sooner. Suck it up and be ready. I’m in this for the long haul, death does not deter me...... really, and at my age............I’ve lived a very good life, in case it does catch up with me. Personally, I’m really sick of hearing about this. Really f...... sick of it. And anyway, something has to kill ya, just a matter of what and when................

 

Stop watching/listening the news for awhile...all doom and gloom or showing celebrities in they're $20 mill mansions crying because they are home bound..both my wife and I are on the front lines day after day as "health essentials"..please no more "we are the world" crap songs.

 

You could be correct. And this Georgia governor who is opening up some businesses against the advise of the president, for what that’s worth, and his “team,” hopefully has something that works. For the economy there and for his sake, I hope it works. Beauty parlors, gyms, bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, barber shops, movie theaters and perhaps some I forgot. A guy I was watching this morning said, that is the difference between a leader and one that is not. Time will tell.

 

The hardest part of this "social distancing" etc. is overcoming a lifetime of habit. People get too close in the grocery store because they have done so for 50 years. It's hard to break habits. So when people say, "The average person is smart enough to take precautions, so all these shutdowns are not necessary" they're only partly correct. Habitual behavior is hard to eliminate. Case in point: My wife and I needed a grocery run and were running late. We jumped in the car and drove to the store before we realized we forgot our masks and gloves! Went back and got the gear. In that one trip to the store I saw dozens of people violating the 6 foot rule. Were they stupid or uncaring? I doubt it. Most of them were probably intent on shopping and just did what they've been doing for decades.

The real bottom line is that YOU DEFINITELY DON'T WANT TO GET THIS CRAP! If you get a light case, that's wonderful, but how many loved ones did you infect who may get a much worse case. I've been reading some of the survivor's accounts. If your sickness gets bad enough you have to be put on a ventilator you only have roughly a 20% chance of surviving. If you do survive, your problems are just beginning. Your body and even mind can be so damaged it will take months, if not years to recover. It may be that many won't fully recover at all. So, for this guy, I'm doing the distancing,mask and glove routine. It's a pain "you-know-where" but it beats the possible alternative! Anyway, all you clowns stay safe. I don't want to lose any of you!

 

Governor Cuomo from the state of New York, undoubtedly the toughest covid19 conditions to deal with of any state in the union. He may not have said all the right things, but I like him, I like to listen to him, all politics aside.

 

Cuomo is doing and saying all the right things IMO. I wish he was leading the fight. My sis worked for him as the head of Child Protection and watched him mange crisis. She said he's using all the best accepted practices and she likes what he's doing. And she admitted that it's hard for her to like him. She was brought in to lead the department after a major screw up. Part of her job was to get rid of people. A few years later a child died in a state group home and Cuomo threw her under the bus. A best accepted practice of crisis management. Get rid of the manager

FWIW Donald HATES Cuomo.

 

What you're missing, even though I keep providing the links, is that this bug has infected a hundred (at least) times as many people as flu. That is simply because flu vaccines create herd immunity, so it doesn't spread as easily. There is no vaccine for this, so no control on its spread. Still, even though it's 100 times as prevalent, it doesn't kill as many of those infected as does flu.
In my state (and likely in yours), twice as many people died last year from drunk drivers as have been killed by this virus.
Weirdly, we didn't ban liquor sales because of all those drunk driving fatalities.
Just as weirdly, Sweden, which didn't lock down, is actually doing better than some other European nations. They're kind of in the middle.
One of the main killers is ventilators (or protocols on use of ventilators). Early on, studies showed that those in respiratory distress resembled people with HAPE (High Altitude Pulmonary Edema) and the protocol for HAPE is to use the ventilator to supply oxygen rather than force oxygen into the lungs. Most hospitals are still ignoring this because "protocols" and killing their patients by forced inflation of the lungs. Those who have adjusted and use the HAPE protocol are seeing much lower death rates through ventilator use. People are dying because medical systems insist on using flu protocols. The bureaucracy and lawyers prevent them from adjusting to the new reality that this isn't flu and requires different treatment than flu.

And nobody seems to be able to understand that "flattening the curve" doesn't mean less people will get the virus. It only means spreading out the infections over a longer period. Once we come out of this economic disruption and return to work, we're still at the same risk until enough people have had it to create that herd immunity that the Swedes are banking on. The Swedes are doing it up front while everyone else is imploding their economies and doing it later. A vaccine isn't even on the horizon.

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Drunk driving et. al. are not infectious so apples to oranges. I disagree with you last paragraph so we're already in trouble here. The Swedes didn't have anti social jerks parading for "freedom". The Swedes know what social distance means. The Federal Govt is responsible for protecting the lives of the citizens. Army, Navy, FDA, CDC. Full Stop. It's Job#. Now the question is, to what degree of success? What is socially acceptable to resume a normal life? As of today we have more dead Americans in this war than in the Viet Nam war. I heard our CIC say 100,000 dead would be winning. That's 50,000 moms and dads, sons and daughters. Let's try to make this real. Two questions. 1- What number of dead is acceptable here? 2- Please tell me the first name of one of your relatives that you would choose to die for the cause.

Also, does anyone have a suggestion for a good breakfast wine? Bacon and eggs.

 

Again, you fail to understand that "flattening the curve" does not mean a single life is saved. It only means spreading out the fatalities. Every day we stay locked down, more jobs are lost, more lives are destroyed and more people are hurt. It doesn't save a single life. Not one.

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"The "curve" researchers are talking about refers to the projected number of people who will contract COVID-19 over a period of time. "

What I hear you saying that is you feel that decreasing the curve (numbers of people infected) will NOT save lives.

Hard liquor for breakfast? Might try that. But with bacon and eggs is White with the fowl or red with the meat? Both maybe.

 

I learned something about testing. Testing is Job# if you believe in military science of viral warfare.

There are two basic ways to detect stuff floating around in your body.

1. Look for amino acids and their polymers. That means detecting proteins.
2. Look for nucleic acids and their polymers. That means detecting DNA or RNA.

Each of those has its advantages and disadvantages. For DNA/RNA the main advantage is that we have this technique of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) which effectively can take one single strand of DNA/RNA and quickly make millions of exact copies of that strand. That way it is able to create a very powerful amplifier of that DNA/RNA “signal” that you can then detect much easier.

For Proteins, we have no equivalent way to amplify the signal. The best we can do is attach things to the protein molecules that make them easier to see like dyes or phosphorescent molecules that light up. But still there is only a one-to-one ratio of proteins to detect in the original sample to lighted things to detect in the test, whereas with PCR DNA/RNA test, there is a one-to-millions ratio.
Next, comes where we get the “sample” from. The thing we are trying to detect can either be from:

A. The pathogen itself.
B. Our body’s response to the pathogen (our immune response).

So far with COVID we have the following:

- The RT-PCR test which is a DNA/RNA test detecting the pathogen itself. Combining the two lists above that is option 2A.
- Antibody tests which detect protein antibodies produced by our immune system in response to the virus. That is option 1B.

Now the PCR test is great in that it is super sensitive at detecting the presence of RNA from the viral genome. Sometimes perhaps too sensitive in that it can detect RNA that is not at all from a “viable” virus. i.e. it is just detecting the desiccated remains of a virus that was once there but cannot actually infect you anymore. In addition to being very sensitive, they also tend to be very specific in that cross contamination and the reasons for it are very well understood and managed through proper primer design. The downside to this is of course it is only directly looking for the pathogen so it only tells you “you are actively infected and shedding the virus”. It tells you noting about how your body is responding to the virus or if you already had it.

The antibody test is the opposite of that. It is detecting that your body has seen this virus and has started to respond to it. These protein-based tests are easy to create, easy to manufacture at a large scale, can be very cheap, and can even be packaged to be administered at home (pregnancy test). The main problems with them are that if you have the virus but your immune system hasn’t started to respond yet, it won’t tell you that. It also is of course a protein test so there is no magic way to amplify the signal like DNA/RNA has with PCR, so they are less sensitive. They also tend to be less specific in that it is easier for other similar antibodies to cross-react or interfere with the results. Finally, with them being cheaper, easier to make, and available outside of controlled lab environments, the prevalence of user error is much higher than with PCR based tests.

So the whole thing is definitely a balancing act. Which one to use changes by what question you are are asking. Option 2A? 1B? Both? Then add in time, environment, and a whole host of other factors. It is all about gathering the proper information to give you the best available data to make the decisions you need to make.

You will also notice that 2A and 1B aren’t the only options from the list above. You could also have option 1A, where you are detecting proteins present in the pathogen. Or you could have option 2B, where you are detecting the DNA of our body’s immune response, effectively looking at a genetic picture of how our body is responding to the virus during the course of the disease.

 

Flattening the curve does NOT decrease the number of infections. The idea was to spread out the infections over a period of time so our health system was not overwhelmed all at once. Instead of a spike, you get a flattened curve. We've done that. We will continue to have infections from this for at least a year and maybe two, until a vaccine is developed.
You're totally not getting this.

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I'll agree with that. I'm totally not getting this. Does flattening the curve RESULT in a decrease in numbers infected? If yes, would that result in fewer deaths? Bill Gates said that if we can reduce the number of deaths to about the same as seasonal flu it would be socially acceptable and the economy would come back.

 

Flattening the curve stops the the health system from being overwhelmed...if the system is overwhelmed more people die due to sub standard care or no care at all...so flattening the curve SAVES LIVES.

 

"Flattening the curve" assumes that the number of those infected will be equal with or without preventative measures.

With a steep curve, the number of sick rises quickly and swamps the ability of the medical profession to reliably treat those who are sick, leading to more deaths from lack of care. However, the period the illness is around is shorter.

Flattening the curve spreads the sickness out for a longer duration. But, because the medical community is not overwhelmed with a massive influx or patients, appropriate care can be given. Thus the number of deaths will be limited.

I believe, at first, it was hoped that this would be like the SARS & MERS Coronaviruses, where the spread, thousands died, measures were taken, and the disease simply went away. But, COVID-19 is particularly more contagious than SARS or MERS, and has not gone away.

 

Got it. Rather, getting it.

Cool site to compare curves. Click on the country on the left.
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