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Corona Virus - How is that working for you?

Discussion in 'Free Fire Zone' started by wooley12, Mar 13, 2020.

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  1. Jack B

    Jack B Active Member

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    sorry, double-post. I was just too eager to pontificate..... ;)
     
  2. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    ..before Covid 19, I would see a ''good percentage'' of people not washing their hands--after going to the restroom!!!..adults and kids ..
    ..now, this is just my observation....but, I'm guessing many people did not/do not wash their hands..especially those that have been drinking alcohol alot .....
     
  3. Jack B

    Jack B Active Member

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    And alcohol impairs the immune system...... :(
     
  4. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, but no, the majority of Americans voted for Clinton. According to the FEC Clinton received 65,853,514 votes, Trump 62,984,828. Clinton received 48.18 percent of the popular vote, Trump 46.09 percent. Trump received a majority of electoral votes, which got him elected, but that is not the same thing.
     
  5. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    hahhahahah
    ....wrong---if only 58% of eligible voters voted, there is no way a majority of Americans voted for Hillary..that leaves 42% unaccounted for
    What does voter turnout tell us about the 2016 election?
    also, the majority of the United States voted for Mr Trump
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  6. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    Sigh...after your last I'm pretty sure this is a lost cause, but...

    Population density of Italy is c. 532 persons per square mile...New Jersey's is 1,207.8. The top five States all have densities greater than Italy and are all concentrated in the Northeast. Rome's population density is 5,781 persons per square mile, Washington DC is 10,528. There is a lot of empty space in the US. Meanwhile, China's population density is 375 persons per square mile, so much less than Italy's and much more than the US, and yet China has nearly four times the cases and twice the deaths than Italy. Gee, I'm not so sure population density is a good metric for predicting pandemic effects in the modern world.

    Yes, Europe makes much greater use of its more robust mass transit system, because the US with its wide open spaces makes more use of private automobiles, which allows Americans to be just as, if not more, mobile than Europeans.
     
  7. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    yes or no--Italy's density is much more the the US?
     
  8. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, moving the goalpost always wins an argument. The Americans who are eligible to vote that did not vote did not vote, so we have zero notion of how they would have voted. I could make the same argument and claim that I ran third in the 2016 election, because I know that 42% of the voters would have voted for me if they only knew how awesome I was.
     
  9. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    Congratulations, you're the first poster here at WW!! Forums that has qualified for being ignored.
     
  10. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    .....you claimed the majority of Americans voted for Hilary---this is undeniably not true ..shall I go back and show you your claim?
    ..no one is moving any posts
     
  11. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    ....so, Rich can't take the ''heat''....wow--we're just discussing civilly, and talk about CRANKY.....hey CAC!!??
    hahahahhahaha
    caps for emphasis only
     
  12. bronk7

    bronk7 Well-Known Member

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    ...that's a myth [ like a lot of others ] that the majority of Americans voted for Hilary--as if the majority wanted Hillary = myth ...you should not get ''cranky [ hahahahah ] when someone points out the truth
     
  13. Jack B

    Jack B Active Member

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    Italy reported a 17% increase in the number of cases they know about yesterday. It isn't useful to compare Italy's situation to China's at this point. You are looking at different stages of an epidemic.
     
  14. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    Um, yeah, exactly. Comparing countries and laying "blame" to various nations doesn't really make much sense in a modern pandemic and has not since 1917 and the "Spanish Flu". We have seen modern outbreaks quickly spread worldwide; "Spanish Flu" in 1917-1919, H2N2 in 1957-1958, H3N2 in 1969, and H1N1 in 2009, were worldwide in months, then weeks, and now days.
     
  15. KodiakBeer

    KodiakBeer Member

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    Any discussion on the percentage of deaths from this virus is nonsense. Why? Because only a tiny percentage of people with the virus will get tested. 90% plus of "victims" only get a mild head cold type of thing. They won't go to the doctor so they won't even be in the pool of people that get tested. Even if they do go to the doctor they propably won't get tested. Only the severest cases, or oddball events like people trapped on these cruise ships, will get tested.
    So, any extrapolation on lethality is coming from very ill people with a secondary illness or general weakened state (the elderly, etc) because they are the only ones tested. This illness could wreak havoc in a nursing home, but not among the general populace.
    Relax. Wash your hands. Avoid crowds. Use a disinfectant in your mouth each evening; something like Knob Creek bourbon would be pretty good (101 proof).

    .
     
  16. harolds

    harolds Member

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    As mentioned, I live in WY, the second least dense state in population. Our shelves are cleaned out of paper products too. Three cases so far as I know. A reliable source says that in Cheyenne (our largest urban area) they are also making a panic run on guns and ammo. I suppose its to protect their stash of paper products and Purell!
    For me, since it's getting warmer, I plan to gain social distance on the nearest trout stream!
     
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  17. Half Track

    Half Track Well-Known Member

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    One of the better posts on the subject, especially the first sentence.
     
  18. Biak

    Biak Boy from Illinois Staff Member

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    Ain't Math great? You can prove or discount pretty much anything. Of course it depends on how you twist the interpretation and disregard the ambiguous statements. Bronk7 I think you're forgetting you are trying to compare two separate equations here; "if only 58% of eligible voters voted, there is no way a majority of Americans voted for..." . By the same token you can't then say that the Majority voted for..... that other guy. Eligible and majority can't be the same. If you have 5 red apples and 2 yellow apples how many yellow apples do you have? Any way you cut it he was beat by 2 percent or 3,000,000 votes.

    The thing with the virus "social distancing" recommendation is to try and stop the rate of transmission to others.
    Areas having a high density of people are far more susceptible than places of few people. People packed into the Chicago area are crammed in at a 'density' of nearly 12,000 per square mile while the "average" for the state of Illinois is only 228 per square mile. If Chicago could be given back to Wisconsin the 228 would drop even lower. Minnesota has 82 people per/sq-m, yet Minneapolis has 140 and the county where I live is just less than 17 people per square mile. Small chance of me coming into contact with someone carrying the bug unless I travel.
     
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  19. wooley12

    wooley12 Active Member

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    I'm in King County Wa. There is a large homeless population. Social distancing in shelters and the camps is not possible. Boeing's company airport will be used to house the homeless who are old and/or in poor health.

    "King County announced Saturday that it will repurpose the arrivals section of Boeing Field to create additional shelter space for vulnerable people living in a crowded Seattle shelter as well as two new spaces for COVID-19 quarantine or recovery for those who are homeless or who can’t self-isolate without infecting the people they live with." 3-15.jpg
     
  20. Jack B

    Jack B Active Member

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    Yes and no. I believe there are some pretty bright epidemiologists working on that question right now. As you point out, the denominator in the equation is poorly understood, and medical resources, practices, and population risk factors vary from location to location. I think that's one reason we see mortality estimates range from 0.1% to 20%.

    Let's hope these researchers at Lancet, using data up to March 01, are way off:

    "A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.
    These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients."​

    Keep in mind, your "90%" unidentified figure is equally unfounded and just a WAG (wild-ass guess). You may be right, but we just don't know yet. We won't really know until retrospective serology testing can be done. Still, one study of 24 asymptomatic people with positive tests showed that only 30% (7 of 24) remained symptom-free, the others went on to develop symptoms. So 70% of these cases did go on to be significant enough to be detected. That may provide a clue as to how many unknown infections of the sub-clinical type are out there.

    Current data from China, where they seem to be doing a good job monitoring this, indicates 3,200 patients, 3.9% of identified cases, have died. So far. Some of those identified currently will go on to succumb to their illnesses, so that rate is likely to go up in the next week (assuming they have curtailed transmission now).

    I'm assuming that some of the 80K cases in China are of the "mild" type. If we assume that there are...be generous here and use 50% instead of 30%...another 50% of symptom-free cases in China, that would mean there are a total of 160,000 cases. With 3200 deaths so far, the mortality rate would be about 2%. If, so, that would be quite serious.

    Regardless, it's clear the CoV-2 virus is more virulent than garden variety influenza which has a 0.1% mortality rate. So it's worth avoiding catching the thing if you can.

    And, yeah, a little mouth wash is probably a good thing...along with the other sensible stuff.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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