My view: Why the Western Allies Could Not Win the War Without the USSR About the effectiveness of the bombing option: 1- First, how much tonnage of bombs would have to be dropped on germany and its european empire to win the war? 2.7 million tons in 2.5 years didn't work out (only reduced armament production by 32% second to Speer). Lets assume that 5 million tons would do the trick in the same period of time (i.e.: lets assume that the nazis would surrender if they dropped 5 million tons of bombs in 2.5 years). How many heavy bombers the Anglo-Americans would have to make to win the war? Historically they made about 45.000 heavy bombers in WW2, and lost about 15.000 (almost all against Germany). Before they achieved aerial superiority in may 1944, the average loss rate for a bombing raid was 5.5% (after, it was 1.5%). With this loss rate a heavy bomber with delivers 4 tons of payload per mission would last 14 missions on average, before being destroyed. This means that a heavy bomber dropped 56 tons of bombs in average. To droop 5 million tons, we would need 90.000 bombers, twice the number made. So, we conclude that without achieving aerial superiority over Germany the bombing effort could not win the war on its own. 2- So we need to calculate if the allies could achieve aerial superiority of Germany allocated the same proportion of their resources towards that end. What was the military budget of germany in the 1943/1944 fiscal year (09/1943-08/1944)? It was 112 billion reichmarks. What was the military budget of the united states in 1944? It was 79 billion dollars. Assuming that japan doesn't exists and that the military budged of britain was equivalent to 25% of the united states (20 billion dollars). The total anglo-american military budget was equivalent to 100 billion dollars in 1944. What was the price of a Fw-190? About 55.000 RM. What was the price of an B-17? About 240.000 dollars. If germany allocates the same proportion of their resources countering the bombers as the western allies invested in the bombers, then we would see 5 german fighters for every allied bomber. What happened to the bomber raids that were intercepted by a large number of opposing fighters? They sustained very large casualties, the number of casualties that would make the strategic bombing offensive impossible (by point 1).