Franco says yes.

Every time I've applied the Math it comes out with the Germans being handicapped by a significant lack of logistical support.

That doesn't mean they send Swordfish for CAP. The RN had fighters why would it not use them?

When does the US enter the war in this scenario? Given the polls it could be earlier than the historical case. Even if it is the historical case since Spain historically didn't enter the war when does it? Certainly not in 39. Even up into June I don't see it. If it decides to do so due to the French defeat how much time do the negotiations take? Certainly more than a few days, likely weeks or months. Then the Axis have to prevent the British from getting to the Canaries first so that's going to take more time and planning. Almost as soon as the US is in the war by the way there's going to be at least one carrirer available. If the Canaries are determined to be more important than Gaudalcanal a US invasion force may be ready by Mid 42 so it's not clear that the axis have a year but even if they do what material do they have?

Funny I don't think it's you that's doing much educating. Although probably more than me as my "student" doesn't seem to even acknowledge his lack of understanding in several key areas.

Was it? Did you read the sources I posted earlier? To make it easy:
Logistics and the Desert Fox

Think about that last a bit. That's 1160 trucks to support a division over 300 miles. Now if we do it for 1200 miles (somewhat less that the 1400 miles mentioned above) that's 4,640 trucks just to support the division which means of course that you need some trucks to support the trucks and that's not counting the corp or army slice. That source goes on to say:

 

Ohh so how many Panzer Divisions did you conclude the logistics can support based on the figures posted?

 

The Axis where capable of landing 150,000 tons of supplies a month even in June 1941 they landed 125,000.
Rommel's force needed just under 70,000 tons a month.
That leaves more than enough for two extra Panzer Divisions.

 

British Empire, Taking the Canary Islands is a very difficult task if Spain has not sided with Germany (as in your AH they have been forced), They distance is far to great and unless you have troop's there on day 1 you are unlikely to achieve taking them. Seeing as the only troop's there would be Spanish do you think they will bother getting off there asses to keep another part of Spain for the back stabbing Germans to occupy? To give up there lifes while there country is forced to do Hitlers will? Hell no. They would surrender or more likely side with the First British or US task force that arrives. And before you argue the US was not in the war at that time, Look at Ice land, Task force 19 was put together in June/July 1941, Before they joined so it is not without precident that the US would secure territory belonging to another nation.

 

That very much depends on where the units are now doesn't it?

Indeed but it leaves it sitting at the ports of Benghazi or Tunis. That's well short of Egypt.

 

That very much depends on where the units are now doesn't it?

I thought you said you had worked it out?

 

I have no doubt the Spanish would fight hard against any landings.
They had 16,000 troops on the Canaries at the time.
As they will be a 2-3 month gap between Hitler informing Franco of what is going to happen and the attack on Gibraltar that is time to prepare defences.
Spain would bolster its air defences and move a large number of aircraft to the Islands.
This could be boosted with German equipment and German aircover based in French Morocco.
Any attempt bu the British to take the island would be very difficult.

 

Iceland is no comparison to Islands of the Spanish Empire and FDR did not for one minute plan on trying to take it.
Even putting US troops on the Azores should Spain and Portugal enter the war was a heated debate.
Interesting piece on Atlantic policy of the main powers in 1940 www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/5500027200.pdf

 

????? You really should quit trying to be clever your not very good at it. I have posted the numbers for Egypt and the AK was in trouble there with what it had adding more would make matters worse. As for all the other possible variations, sorry that's up to you. I'll point out where you've made errors though if you care to post them.

I don't find it convincing just because you have no doubts. Care to inform us why you lack such doubts?

Is that including the time to negotiate Spains entry or not?

Really? What large number of aircraft? Looking at: Spanish Air Force
Spain has about 200 fighters only about 2/3 of which are operational. How many do they keep in Spain and how many do the send to Morocco and how many to the Canaries? Note that the majority of those fighters are Cr.32s. If you combine the bombers and attack planes there are a few more than there are fighters but it looks like their availabilty rate may even have been worse than the fighters. Certianly the decline in numbers from 40 to 41 isn't encourageing.

Or not. If the British have a few months warning as you suggest I don't suspect they would have too much trouble ceasing one or more of the islands before the axis can do much reinforcing.

 

Eh you told me you worked it out.
Clearly you did not as the figures you posted proved 4 Panzer Divisions could be supported.

 

I don't find it convincing just because you have no doubts. Care to inform us why you lack such doubts?

Combat record in the East, Falange in power, Desire to expand and defend the Spanish Empire and the fact even conquered Vichy troops fought.

Spain would be told of the plan on October 23rd 1940 and it put into action January 10th 1941.

And German aircraft and supplied equipment.
According to the figures above the Spanish have 36 BF109's
Germany would quickly make more BF109;s available to Spain as they did in actual history with the Spanish even licence building the planes later.
Plus the huge impact of the German airforce itself.

That would mean the British would have to attack and declare on Spain rather than the other way round.
Im sure this would please the Germans and help galvanise the war effort.

 

Where?

 

Post 21 were you said "Every time I've applied the Math it comes out with the Germans being handicapped by a significant lack of logistical support."

 

If Franco said yes,it would be a disaster for ...Spain and for Germany .

 

Agreed. The only way that it would not have been a disaster if historically there civil war turned out far more different, Say for example there wasnt one or that it was short and very little blood spilt? Otherwise they where a nation rebuilding and that takes time, A lot of time when at the time Germany needed allies then rather then 5-10 years down the track.

 

Which doesn't at all equate to what you claimed I said. Thus showing another of your arguments to be a straw man. This is getting old.

 

I dont see how.
What is left of Franco's Spain today?

 

It equates to exactly that.
Lets get this as straight as possible.
Based on the figures you posted can the Axis support 4 Panzer Divisions in Libya/Egypt yes or no?

 

??? I don't see how.

I Lybia near Tripoli or Benghazi yes. In Egypt no. At the Egyptian Libyan border not for any significant length of time.

 

What would be left of Franco's Spain in 1945?