Iran - is war likely?

The US recently revealed evidence that Iran is supplying arms/munitions to the Iraqi insurgents

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle ... 352593.stm

Iran responds

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle ... 353923.stm


So where do you see this going? I'm wondering why I have not heard any comment from the UK government, and why this is the moment that the Leader of the Opposition's past was suddenly exposed...

 

I don't think UK wants to get into another mess befor first two are at least partialy cleaned up.

I don't buy that: "we don't have a plan to invade Iran" theme. That's excatly what they were saying about Iraq. It seems that Bush & co want to go after Iran and are looking for any possible pretext.

Problem is that Iran is not Iraq. They are one nation (aryans = persians) and are much more nationalistic than most of their neighbours. If for some reason US or US cronies would bomb Iran ( in my opinin there is not enough ground forces for succesfull ground war) only thing they will achive is to rally Iranians behind Khamnei and Ahmedinajad. Also one has to consider that large part of ex. Northern alliance in Afganistan and Iraqi Kurds (especialy Peshmergas) owe a great deal to Iranians becouse they were the onlyones that supported them in the past. If US would go after Iran i realy belive that shit will explode back into their faces not to mention that Iran is the only force now holding back Hezbollah and to some extent Hamas. In Iraq, Iran is supporting moderate Shias (al Sistani group) and not radicals (Sadr). It is possible that some of the weponary that was sent to Sistani in 2003 ended up in Sadr's hands.

About sopisticated IED's we are hearing so much about. If you know the principles and have material it is not as difficoult to make (even shaped charges) as some think. And material is something nobody lacks in Iraq (remember the plundered unguarded explosive storages in 2003?). Sasme with experts (do you remember 400.000 professional soldiers and about same number of weapons production specialists laid off in 2003?).

 

I suggest to isolat Iran and let them live in their own misreable life, if they then attack anybody then we have a good reason to take action against them.
If they build the bomb and then use it, they must be the stupidst people on earth, we all know what kind of retaliaction that will come on that.

 

I realy don't belive they are after the bomb. Khamnei issued a fatwa against nuclear bomb and they tend to take such things very seriously.

Also i don't think Iranians will invade anyone (in last 100 years the didn't). Tough rethoric is just a means to bring US to talk to them directly. US administration doesn't want to talk to them ast this would be seen as giving certain legitimacy to current regime in Iran (same as with N. Korea) and they don't want that. US realy seem like sore loosers as they act as if they still can't forget deposing of the shah in 1979.

Iran does have its fingers in many plays in the region (Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Afganistan...) but i belive that is just strategical game of chess for them. It is only way to understand that they are stounch supporters of Hamas, Hezbolah, Kurds and large part of warlords in afganistan (N. Alliance) that are to most part sunni muslims.

What is interesting is their understanding of science. They are extremly proud of their scientists. One of the explenations that are given is that to reach golden age (paradise for us westerns) is by the way of science. That is the reason the they are practicaly the only country where stem cell research can be done without opposition of the state.

 

More speculation...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle ... 353489.stm

 

I really dont trust a guy that openly decleare that Israel show be wiped out from the map and that holocuste did not happen

 

Surprisingly enough, we are in complete agreement on this.

 

Well, I definately see your point.

Iran is a funny case - how much of what they say (and do) is simply a matter of posturing?

As in - look at us, we're denouncing Israel, we're unofficially helping Iraq against 'the great satan' ( :roll: ), and we're even getting nuclear power, and you know what that means...


Or are they really as nutty (sorry, steadfast zealous people trying to make the world a better place ) as they make themselves out to be? Will they actually put their money where their mouth is? Should we take the risk that they won't?

 

BTW Israel remark was quoting the good old Khomeini (you know the bad guy from the 80's). About holocaust remark you should read his speach and not what was printed in the US press.

If you like nitpicking:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article12790.htm
http://www.juancole.com/2006/05/hitchens-hacker-and-hitchens.html


BTW
Quite interesting speach by Benjamin Netanyahu proudly posted on:
http://www.herzliyaconference.org/Eng/_Articles/Article.asp?ArticleID=1626&CategoryID=223

 

well, both remarks came from his own mouth on TV and they held a conference for holocuste deniers, so I really dont trust them anyway

and Grieg why is that surprisenly that we agree on something? there will always be thing we agree on and things we dis-agree on and there shall be room for that, its called democrasy, you know that little thing about freedom of speeds that Denmark seemed to be the only country that defended that last year duing a cartoon crisis

 

Wow i didn't know you speak farsi.

 

no, but the translater on Danish TV news does and if they translate wrong they would be hold responsiable for mis-information and wrongs
(media in Denmark is very independe, so dont compaire them with other countries media)

 

Invading Iran under the pretence of searching for WMD's would be seen as pure hipocracy on America's part...

Consider the questions the public would ask if America did invade Iran... No WMD's were found in Iraq? Fine, mistakes are made... Iran is in the process of building nuclear reactor? But we all know North Korea has the bomb, already... If America really were interested in rooting out potential nuclear powers, then they would be in North Korea and not in the Gulf...

Invading Iran Now (after the events which have transpired in Iraq and North Korea) would essentially be admitting to the world that America has some ulterior motive in the Middle East... Otherwise why would they be invading Iran, who are about as nuclear capable as Antarctica... While Kim Jong Il is free to develop his already tested nuclear weapons further...

Whether that is the truth or not does not matter... As long as the media broadcasts it across the globe, it will have an impact, and they most certainly will

 

Jens you have teriffic sense of humor. That would be the first. UPS Wait, CNN did apologise after they messed up the translation ( i belive that right to peacefull nuclear program was translated as right to nuclear bomb) and their poeple were kicked out of Iran. BTW How many jurnalists does Danish TV have in Iran?

BTW
Concensus of "holocaust deniers" conference was that Holocaust did happen and that between 4,5 and 6 million Jews were killed (i belive standard numbers for holocaust) by the Germans. Another consensus was that Germans should deal with consequences not Palestinians.

 

Surprising? I have a feeling a good majority of us would agree with that.

CNN got kicked out?!!? ROFL. So much for the best coverage, I guess.

 

Jeah, but were let back in after they humbly apologised (for entire day at every news) on the air for wrong translation. They just forgot to check the sources and repeated the official line (translation) sent out by Bush administration. But then since US doesn't have diplomats to kicked out (i wonder why :smok: ) CNN did serve the usefull purpose

 

Danish TV showed the original record from iranian TV, so they did not need any journalist in Iran for that, they just get hold on iranian TV owns recordings and show them, and if danish TV translate wrongly I think that the large number of muslims able to speak farsi in Denmark would make them very much aware of that and then they would be forced to puplic correct it, which have not happend
(and Denmark have an amberracy in Iran, so its not difficult for us to know whats going on there)

btw. I go to school with a guy from Afghanistan, he know farsi, so if I have any questions about anything I'll just ask him

 

Complety off topic.

Just found this video:
Damir Niksic: "If I wasn't muslim"

A bit of sarcastic humor (typical Bosnian treat) about being a Bosnian muslim.

 

lol what is this?

 

Believe it or not there are other media outlets then the US press... :roll: