Should Hitler have accepted Soviet peace offers in 1942 and 1943

Indeed, he was quite optimistic: he has planned to get everything for free, before the Christmas 1941! Yeah, he has got it!

PS: Seriously now! ... but the shortage of vital raw materials, especially ingredients for special alloys has crippled their production of quality equipment. Though, reasons for the failure of the 3rd Reich weren't just inadequate economy and the size of the USSR. Simply, the "Rotten Edifice" was a fairy-tale.

 

The only resource Germany had plenty of was coal, THe Germans received enough oil and other materials during the peace treaty to last for a time, plus the fact that Germany was losing so many tanks and trucks helped offset the lack of imports. Germany's problem was the long term,with the U.S. supplying Britain Germany needed vast amounts of raw materials and only the SU had what Germany needed.

 

That's questionable :Churchill was saying tohe US :give us the tools,job,but Hitler could not say this to Stalin .What Stalin was selling to Hitler was secundary,Hitler had to go to the SU to seize what he needed,and,what he could seize in the occupied territories of the SU,was insignifiant .

 

it wasnt insignificant, but Germany never had the time to properly exploit them.

 

There is some irony, and a circular logic, that Hitler needed the resources of Russia to effect his invasion of said country. No invasion of Russia would greatly reduce the need for oil and other minerals and allow the demobilisation of perhaps 10 divisions, of who's men could have gone back into the farms to increase food production in the newly captured lands

But then that would be another thread.

 

Adam Tooze "wages of destruction" is an excellent book on German economic weakness.

 

This is entirely correct. As the matter of fact, the Gross National Product of Germany and collaborating nations was higher than GNP of the Allies combined. At that time Germany even did not switch to War Economy.

 

Führer thought that onslaught would interrupt supplies just for few weeks.

There were higher priorities. Führer knew: it was spring/summer 1941 or never. One year later he would have had to face much stronger and, more importantly, re-organized Red Army.

 

I have no idea where you got your data tamino about the GNP because the US outproduced both Germany and Japan by its self.

 

GNP and production of war materials are two different things .

 

Niall Ferguson*, "The Second World War as an Economic Disaster"

Besides, USA hasn't entered the war yet at the time under consideration.

* <Niall Ferguson - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia>

 

If you look at Tooze's Wages of Destruction on page 136 of the paper back edition there's a chart lableled Germany in the world economy (1924-1935). Looking at the total income rating standardized against the US (100). Germany rates a 27 Britain a 33. Table 17 on page 641 lists Germany's GDP as 412 and Britains as 344. Who else are you including?

 

The chart below is from Fergusons article cited a couple of posts before:
View attachment 15794
(please, click the image to enlarge!)

PS: Please note that the chart helps distinguish US contribution in Axis/Allies comparison. The chart also properly incorporates economies of occupied countries into Axis GDP.
PS2: Note also that US economy starts to matter from Dec. 8th 1941, not before, for obvious reasons.

 

Were talking 1942-1943 so Im not sure how the that time period counts especially since Germany only had Austria and Czechoslovakia you cannt include the other occupied countries

 

I see. I was referring to posts since #20 on, where we were taking about 1939-1941.
During that time "the Germans very successfully sucked resources out of occupied Western Europe; at their peak in 1943 unrequited transfers from France amounted to 8 per cent of German gross national product – equivalent to a third of pre-war French national income. Germany all but monopolized the exports of the West European countries she occupied. The former Czechoslovakia, too, was a substantial net contributor to the German war effort." The quoted text is from Ferguson.

However, may I suggest to move posts since #20 to another new thread. All these issues mentioned here are of paramount importance for the WWII in general but have nothing to do with possible initiatives for separate peace which are discussed here.

 

[TABLE="width: 550"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl25, width: 214, bgcolor: transparent"]Below is the original data from Harrison which all others seem to base their tables upon.[/TD]
[TD="class: xl25, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl25, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl25, width: 71, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl25, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl25, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl25, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl25, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl25, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl26, bgcolor: transparent"]GDP of the combatants[/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl27, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl38, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 9"]GDP in 1990 prices (billions of dollars)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl29, bgcolor: transparent"]1938[/TD]
[TD="class: xl29, bgcolor: transparent"]1939[/TD]
[TD="class: xl29, bgcolor: transparent"]1940[/TD]
[TD="class: xl29, bgcolor: transparent"]1941[/TD]
[TD="class: xl29, bgcolor: transparent"]1942[/TD]
[TD="class: xl29, bgcolor: transparent"]1943[/TD]
[TD="class: xl29, bgcolor: transparent"]1944[/TD]
[TD="class: xl29, bgcolor: transparent"]1945[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent"]USA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]800[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]869[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]943[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]1094[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]1235[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]1399[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]1499[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]1474[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent"]UK[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]284[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]287[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]316[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]344[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]353[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]361[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]346[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]331[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent"]France[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]186[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]199[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]164[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]130[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]116[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]110[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]101[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent"]Italy[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]141[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]151[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]147[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]144[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]145[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]137[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]117[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent"]USSR[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]359[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]366[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]417[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]359[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]274[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]305[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]362[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]343[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent"]Germany[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]351[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]384[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]387[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]412[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]417[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]426[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]437[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]310[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent"]Austria[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]24[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]29[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]28[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]29[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent"]Japan[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]169[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]184[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]192[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]196[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]197[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]194[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]189[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]144[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl32, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl32, bgcolor: transparent"]Combattants[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl32, bgcolor: transparent"]UK and Allies[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]470[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]486[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]480[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]703[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]1862[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]2065[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]2207[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]2240[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl32, bgcolor: transparent"]Germany and Allies[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]516[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]562[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]561[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]715[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]902[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]895[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]865[/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"]567[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl32, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl31, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl33, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]If USSR is defeated in 1941[/TD]
[TD="class: xl34, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl34, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl34, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl34, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl34, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl34, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl35, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl36, bgcolor: transparent"]UK and Allies[/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl37, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1588[/TD]
[TD="class: xl37, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1760[/TD]
[TD="class: xl37, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1845[/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl36, bgcolor: transparent"]Germany and Allies[/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl37, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1176[/TD]
[TD="class: xl37, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1200[/TD]
[TD="class: xl37, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1227[/TD]
[TD="class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent"]

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

Apologies for the presentation of data in my previous post but could not get it to work any other way.

I have seen various authors work this information in different ways eg adding French GDP to that of Germany after June 1940 etc.

You can play around with it to make it anything you want - I have seen claims that all the Armies, Battles and Generals can be ignored

just follow the GDP and the turning points in thr War and final victors are all revealed!

 

The next question is does anyone know how the results were standardized to the dollar? If the official exchange rate was used then the numbers become very questionable as the Mark was held at an artifically high rate. Based on figure 4 page 77 in the paper back eddition (which charts wholesale prices) it looks like the Mark may have been overvalued by ~30%. That's more than enough to reverse any percieved German advantage. Indeed multiplying the 1940 value by .7 yields 393 well below 480. Now if it isn't based on official exchange rates what's it based on?

 

A sincere peace treaty between Germany and the Soviet Union would speak serious trouble for the Allies. With the eastern front abolished, the German Armed Forces can now concentrate fully on the western front. The large amount of battle-hardened soldiers from the east now available gives Hitler the possibility of another peace treaty and this time with the Allies after they get sick of a long war of attrition.

What I want to know: Would Overlord still be feasible in such a turn of events?

 

To me, no! With all the power at the Atlantic coast it would have been a suicide attack! For this case the allied had to split them up at other places, like a fictive invasion at Norway and to send some more ships to North Africa to engage them more at there. Otherwise there wouldn´t be any chance to make the D-Day in the way it happened.