I'm not at all sure that is the case. On one program I listend to yesterday they stated that a severe flu would have a death rare of around 1% and the normal flu around .1% which if there have been 100 deaths in Mexico extrapolates to 10,000-100,000 cases already. Given that most of the world wide cases can be traced back to Mexico or at least close to it it is likely to hit a very large number of cases. As for treatmenet while it can be treated this is far from cheap espcially on the scale we may be talking about and indeed it's not clear there will be enough of the medicine. Depends a lot on how fast it spreads. The mortality specifics are in some ways consoling (at least if you don't live in Mexico) but in others not. The fact that all the fatalites occrued in Mexico and from what I've heard are pnuemonia related may indicate a secondary infection possilby bactierial. This could be very bad news for Mexico and long term elsewhere depending on what the bacteria is if it is indeed the case. Antibiotics don't require a perscription in Mexico and people on occasion will treat even headaches with a few doses. This means that the possibility of resistant bacteria in Mexico city is quite high. Given the crowded and inpoverished nature of the city there is considerable room for real problems. While there is considerable "scare mongering" of the above they also constitute clear dangers that are often under estimated as well. For instance look up "passive smoking" and St Helena.
actaully,the normal flu is actaully a killer aswell,it normalally kills the older and the weake and sick,it is a weak flu that can kill weake and old sick people. the uncommon flus like the bird and swine flu a alot stronger and can kill the strong people aswell as the sick ,old and weake. that's the reale difference.
There haven't been that many cases reported in Mexico though. Like previously stated, of 2000 people who went to the hospital with flu-like systems, half of them were sent packing because it wasn't the Swine Flu. The other half don't necessarily have Swine Flu but they might just have the Flu - aka something worse then a runny nose. So, lets call that 800 cases of 'Flu' in a country that numbers in the Millions. Thats a very tiny proportion of the population. I am sure I can find that many people in Orlando and its surrounding area who have the Flu. I think some one posted that around 36,000 people die in the USA from the Flu (or directly because of it). This 'swine flu' is hardly anything to be concerned with. Every case outside of Mexico has been contracted by people who were in Mexico. None have been fatal. Only 1 of the 150 in the USA have had to go to hospital and stay there. People are getting their undies in a bundle over nothing. Yes, its a new 'flu' and its fatality has been high in Mexico, but Mexico isn't known for its healthcare system! If not for those deaths, you wouldn't have heard about it. I guarantee that this will blow over in a week and we'll have all forgotten about it in a month. I'd be more worried about being killed in an airplane crash then contracting this Swine Flu.
Shouldnt worry too much if your in UK, the Government chief medical advisor says we have enough jabs to provide resistance for half the population in stock at this moment. Given that not all will have it, and only most vulnerable in first instances plus medical, emergency workers, students and all those that involve congregations....which will leave the church out then...then all will be well even if in the most unlkely event a pandemic be declared...Not everyone will catch it, not everyone who catches it like any other disease will die of it, not everyone should panic, and not every media outlet i n the UK should think that they are doing a good job in worrying and concerning what seems like the usual suspects in a population used to a lot worse than the talk of something happening....maybe...cor blimey luv a duck...Doomed were all doomed...I want to go like a Viking please...on a boat out to sea...,.burn me and blacksnake on a mersey ferry...just make sure were dead first please....Put the old last stitch thru my lip and one thru blacksnakes eyes...that should do it.
Dose anyone believe a word that puppet tells us? Gordon Brown is pulling the strings. We're boned and that is a fact until they have the real vaccine and not the sugar pill.
What will happen if Gordon Brown told us the truth? Stock market would crash outright and a good free for all. Bender "Let's get looting."
Nor would you expect them to be at least at this stage. Most flu cases don't get reported. Similar to West Nile. In that case 50% of the people that got it were probably asymptomatic. However this strain looks to be extremly virulent and if it gets out of control could cause considerable problems. As far as symptoms go, asside from Mexico, there is no indication that this version of the swine flu is significantly worse than any other flu. Indeed the avain flu that was causeing so much concern a bit ago seams to have worse symptoms. What is makeing this flu so much of a concern is that it seams to be capable of spreading very quickly and such spreading can be exponential if unimpeeded. But you aren't seening it progress as quickly as this. Indeed that's part of the problem. We are looking at a disease that appears to be highly contagious. The source has been identified and it is spreading rapidlly from that single source. That's a lot different from an essentially stable rate that we have with the other current flus. Hardly over nothing. The fatality rate is or at least shouldn't be the real concern the infection rate is. I seriously doubt it will blow over in a week or that it will be forgotten about in a month. As for worrying. You are much more likely to get it than die in an airplane crash. As for which constitutes the higher mortality risk that's an open question. I seriously doubt I'll die of either but I find the swine flu of much more concern. Mostly due to economic reasons.
You're forgetting the obvious; I would have to have made a mistake first to have anything to apologise for. And as for "passive smoking", at one point the fanatics were claiming more deaths in Scotland than actually died in the entire EU in one year. I don't do scaremongering, populist BS. The two swine flu victims live in a town about 12 miles away from me. There are no panic-stricken citizens running around like headless chickens, just like the only people doing so 3 years ago during the bird-flu-epidemic-that-never-happened-because-some-idiot-misidentified-a-dead-seabird were usually gullible middle-class cretins looking for their next bandwagon.
Och aye. But you live under Argyll Law don't you?? Any non approved panic is treated in a swift manner...
As in, the chicken got involved but the pig got committed, sort of like using ham and eggs to illustrate the difference between involvement and commitment ? Cheers BW
Errrm ... If this is a "New" strain of swine-flu, where did they get the vaccine from in such a short space of time? The last time they immunized against swine-flu was in the US in 1976 ... 250 people reportedly died from the vaccine rather than the flu. Needless to say only a 1/4 of the pop. was given the jab before they stopped it ... If it's the same stuff they intend to stick us with this time round I think I'll take my chances ... and anti-B's ... and Lemsip ... and Paracetamol ...... Ferries already booked urqh old-buddy ... "Valhalla cross de Mersey ... 'cause dis lands de one I Love, and 'ere I'll stay..." Funny that ... the last time I went on the ferry, I got "stitched-up" that time as well.
According to the CDC (who are generally correct) the strain is H1N1 which is the same strain as the 1918 pandemic, so it is an old strain which regularly re-occures, hence there will be some production of a type specific anti-viral and vaccine for it. It is possible that Mexico is the current harbourer of the disease as it is sometime since the disease occured in that area. The real problem is if the strain has mutated in a dangerous manner, but more often than not the strain mutates into a less virilant strain. Consider this a virus has no conciousness so has no malice towards its host, if it kills its host too quickly that is counter productive, ideally for the virus, it infects without destroying or even harming its host and therefore is able to reproduce and spread, which is its motivation, assuming a partical of genetic material can have a motivation. ~Steve
So basically Razin the pigs are safe again, we can eat.... Yep looks like the latest is its our problem now, the pigs though are laughing... Wont be if its nice this weekend...I'm getting the bbq out... Why has this thread suddenly got me hungry.
The info at the moment Steve is all a bit too vague. On one hand we're being told (from what I've read in the UK), that there was an out-break of swine-flu in 1918, but, the pandemic that killed 50 million was "Spanish Flu". One newspaper even claims that a victim of that pandemic who was buried in a "lead lined" coffin is to be exhumed to determine what flu strain killed the bloke????? The H1N1 flu strain is also the seasonal flu common to humans, the same strain is also common in swine. There are four antiviral drugs to combat the human strain, yet the CDC claims only two of these should be administered for the swine strain. You would have to have a damn good argument to convince me that a virus had a specific goal in life or death. But, does it have a specific purpose? I would have to say yes ... And I would say that would be survival, to intentionally grow more deadly would be as you say Steve counter productive. But becoming resilient to treatment ... Result.
You may well be onto something there Urqh ... contact the CDC ... BBQ's compulsory over this Bank Holiday ... If we can eat ALL the livestock over the weekend then it's back to work Tuesday ... No paracetamol ... No sick note. that is provided it doesn't rain ...
Urqh It has never been unsafe for you to eat pig meat. By the time it is inspected (and the slaughter house vet would not pas a pig with flu anyway) slaughtered de-bristled and butchered any pathogenes would be washed off. you have more chance of catching something if the salesman in the butchers doesn't wash his hands properly. So Barb BQ away Steve
Hopefully I don't get the Swine Flu tomorrow...i'm due to play Soccer with a bunch of South Americans! (on that note, anyone want some drugs? A few of the players are from Colombia...)
