So, now Arafat is dead, what will happen? My prediction is that the Palestinians will fight like cats in a sack to become the new leader of all Palestinians, which will have one of 3 results: 1) One guy wins out through (mostly) fair & proper means, and carries on where Arafat left off. 2) The Palestinian poltical wing fragments into 15,000 different splinters, all claiming total leadership. 3) One guy wins over the dead bodies of his opponants & their followers. I personally think that 1) is unlikely, 3) might happen at a later date, but not yet, and 2) is most probable. However, if anything other than 1) happens, the Palestinian 'cause' is dead in the water.
If 1) happens, it will probably be an Islamistic fundamentalist, someone related to the Hamas perhaps, taking the steering wheel. I don´t think we need to go into where this will lead the situation. A political fragmentation is the most likely alternative right now, I believe. It will certainly weaken the Palestinian cause, as well as create a chaotic and even more complex situation, which will make it an easy prey for the Hamas.
Here's two things I think are going to happen. 1) His succession won't be smooth, nor will it be peaceful. Just like the posts above I don't much believe in the occurance of Ricky 1 and estimate something in between Ricky 2 and 3. Possibly the situation will dangle somewhere between the two for several long years. 2) With the death of Arafat, the most important and well-known character in the Palestinian struggle and the PLO, the world is going to lose every bit of sympathy with the Palestinian cause that may be left, simply because they will go for Ricky 2 or 3. Instead of a people led by a shaky old man looking for peace and independence, the stage is now cleared for young radicals (of which there are plenty) who will overwhelm the reasonable elements of the PLO and take control over the struggle. This won't be any good, not now and not later, IMO.
I surely think that any ground made in in peace talks with Israel will be lost. If he is replaced (by whatever method) I hope that they continue to make peace.
What pessimists are we in hindsight! It turns out that now that Arafat is gone both parties seem to be more willing to approach each other. Imagine, Sharon is actually willing to shake Abbas's hand!
Yes, a very pleasant surprise. The trick is to get the militant guys to go along with the politicians, though... :-?
It'll never happen. The second that it appears that the Palestinian leader is making peace with Israel, watch the shooting start!
My grandfather didn't know what his name was and called him assafat. They he decided he hated the man and started calling him assasfat all the time. I heard Vice President Dick Cheny say John Kerry was stupid for calling Arafat a "great statesman". This was during the campaigning. My dad say arafat was a terrorist murderer who was better of dead. If this ticks and one off, I am sorry. I personaly think the palastine should give up and let themselves be part of isreal. Isreal should control all that stuff from turky down the med, and the whole Arabian penninsula. Don't get mad at me PLEASE!
Don't worry, we are usually quite friendly on here! You might be asked to justify that opinion though, so be prepared!
Could you please justify that opinion, Wspauldo? But seriously. We do have a topic on the matter of Israel and Palestine, by the way.
