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Japan and Germany invade US through a "neutral" Mexico.

Discussion in 'What If - European Theater - Eastern Front & Balka' started by OpanaPointer, Dec 31, 2009.

  1. brndirt1

    brndirt1 Saddle Tramp

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    The Germans would be hard pressed to land any troops in the east of Mexico, how would they get their troop ships past the Royal Navy, they couldn't go twenty miles across the English Channel. How in the world would they make it to either Central America or South America with troops. They could land lone and small groups, but not an armed force.

    As to the Imperial Japanese, from the turn of the century the revolutionary leaders, both Pancho Villa and Francisco Madero were very xenophobic, and held especially deep hatreds towards Asians. They would routinely kill any Chinese or Japanese they found working in the mining camps, on railroads, or working in the fields.

    Mexico was far from a "great place" for the Japanese to invade through even if they could get there with the limited oil supply they had on hand. Plus, a great number of indigenous Mexicans were armed and after the US had invaded them twice (Mexican American War, Pershing chasing Villa), they weren’t too hospitable to invaders.

    In the 1930s the Mexican government had expelled all Asians from the states of Sonora, and Coahuila, and in the post-revolutionary period the treatment of even Asians who had lived in the country from the previous century were frequently the victims of violence including lynching and other murders. Mexico is a "no-go" for the Germans or the Japanese. The Germans can't get there, and the Japanese (all Asians) were far from welcome.
     
  2. brndirt1

    brndirt1 Saddle Tramp

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    Today's Mexican people should read a bit of their own history. They shouldn't be too pissed off, and their government sold it to us. If they wish to buy it back, with interest I suppose it could be arranged.

    The "Treaty of Hidalgo Guadalupe" ending the Mexican/American War was the first time (as far as I know) that the nation taking any territory by "force of arms" paid the defeated country for the land taken. In GOLD worth fifteen million dollars, with interest as payments were made, and before the gold strike in California was made or known about.

    America also paid for the Gadsden Purchase (1854) in an amount negotiated post Mexican/American War, along with the originally agreed to interest. This amount was also delivered/paid on time, in gold and silver bulliion, and delivered to Mexico City by the US.

    Yup, the land certainly was "stolen". They lost it by force of arms, were paid for it in gold and silver (with interest), and really didn't want it since it was a literally uninhabited desert area at the time with only cattle ranches as an asset.

    The fact that it "snuggled" up nicely to the Oregon territory (from the Louisiana Purchase) and completed a "Manifest Destiny" ideal was not the original idea. That loss of territory was only an embarrassment militarily, and diplomatically for the Mexicans, but the territory was far from a "money maker" before the gold was discovered in California, and that was after they lost the territory by conquest and accepted the gold payment from the US.

    At any rate, as to the "territory" which constitutes today’s California, Arizona, New Mexico, and portions of other states. Article V of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo (February 2, 1848) clearly defines that all territory north of a point: "...one marine league due south of the southernmost point of the port of San Diego, according to the plan of said port made in the year 1782 by Don Juan Pantoja, second sailing-master of the Spanish fleet, and published at Madrid in the year 1802, in the atlas to the voyage of the schooners "Sutil" and "Mexicana"; of which plan a copy is hereunto added, signed and sealed by the respective Plenipotentiaries."

    From that point north the land was ceded to the United States for gold and silver delivered to Mexico City, so the United States PAID the Mexican Government for land it had conquered by force of arms.

    All persons of Mexican or Spanish ancestry already established in the areas were totally free to either sell their land and leave with all their other wealth, or stay and apply for American citizenship. With NO consequences to they, or their families. It didn’t work out that nicely eventually, but that was the original set-up.

    Then as to the territory north of San Francisco (which Spain never colonized), Spain also signed the third Nootka Convention years before (1794), in which Spain disavowed any territorial claims, and transferred that territory to the US and the British. I suppose they figured; "...let those guys fight it out they have to deal with the Russians too. We'll probably be able to reclaim the land later."

    The Spanish couldn’t foresee their own loss of Mexico a few years later, in 1821 which began with the "Treaty of Cordova" and the establishment of an Independent Kingdom of Mexico in August of 1821.

    Then comes in the problem that the Russians had established many "trading posts" in the area, the furthest south being on Bodega Bay (Fort Rossiya). There had been Spanish/Russian "disagreements" with the Tzar and the Russian-American Fur Company for years since they had been hunting sea otters as far south as Baja California, and Tzar Alexander I (September 16, 1821) had already claimed nearly the entire Northwest coast of North America for Russia. The Russians simply couldn't defend, nor did the Tzar try to defend their own claim by force of arms.

    By 1812, the Russian-American Fur Company (which had NOTHING to do with American citizens) had established twenty-four trading posts from Sitka Alaska to Central California with its furthest south, "permanent" post being Fort Ross (Fort Rossiya) near Bodega Bay, just north of present day San Francisco. This was the Russian-American Company trading post built in 1812. But when it failed to feed the Russian-America fur traders (as originally planned) the Swiss-American, Captain John A. Sutter of New Helvetia (Sacramento) bought it from the Tzar, took it apart, and moved most of it to Sutter’s Mill.

    Sutter's offer to the Tzar was accepted on December 12, 1841, six years BEFORE the Mexican/American war, and thirty years after the Spanish/Mexican governments had declined to establish and/or support missions north of the San Francisco Bay. Sutter paid $30,000 in produce and gold for the movable property and other assets of the Russian colony. Between 1841 and 1844 Sutter's men took down a number of the buildings of the colony and removed the arms, equipment and livestock which the Russians had left behind. The 1906 earthquake "flattened" everything that Sutter hadn’t stripped out and moved off to the town which would become Sacramento.

    Now, here is a "funny one", Sutter bought it from the Tzar’s government for thirty grand, and the Tzar "bought" the territory it sat on from the indigenous peoples. If $24 was a bargain price for Manhattan Island, the cost of Fort Ross and its environs in California was a "steal". Three blankets, two axes, three garden hoes and an assortment of glass beads convinced the native peoples to move out of 1,000 acres of coastal land (Pomo, Coast Miwok [?] Tribes), and allow the Russian-American Fur Company and its men in. Some accounts add that three pairs of trousers were thrown in for good measure.

    I would recommend that those who wish to get excited about the Mexican/American war read the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo (February 2, 1848), which was ratified BEFORE Sutter's foreman Mr. Marshall discovered the gold at Sutter’s Mill, paying especially attention to:

    ARTICLE XII

    "In consideration of the extension acquired by the boundaries of the United States, as defined in the fifth article of the present treaty, the Government of the United States engages to pay to that of the Mexican Republic the sum of fifteen millions of dollars."

    "Immediately after the treaty shall have been duly ratified by the Government of the Mexican Republic, the sum of three millions of dollars shall be paid to the said Government by that of the United States, at the city of Mexico, in the gold or silver coin of Mexico The remaining twelve millions of dollars shall be paid at the same place, and in the same coin, in annual installments of three millions of dollars each, together with interest on the same at the rate of six per centum per annum. This interest shall begin to run upon the whole sum of twelve millions from the day of the ratification of the present treaty by--the Mexican Government, and the first of the installments shall be paid-at the expiration of one year from the same day. Together with each annual installment, as it falls due, the whole interest accruing on such installment from the beginning shall also be paid. "

    Which was supplemented with the Gadsden Purchase (1853) in its:

    ARTICLE III.

    "In consideration of the foregoing stipulations, the Government of the United States agrees to pay to the government of Mexico, in the city of New York, the sum of ten millions of dollars, of which seven millions shall be paid immediately upon the exchange of the ratification of this treaty, and the remaining three millions as soon as the boundary line shall be surveyed, marked, and established."

    But we are getting pretty far afield of WW2 here are we not?
     
  3. Spaniard

    Spaniard New Member

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    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    Great information! One has to remember also That Spain Sold Florida to the US, Actually it was a 4.5 Million land claim settlement if I remember correctly.

    If Germany would of succeeded in Invading Mexico that means Today many in the US would of been speaking German instead of Spanish.:D
     
  4. HaoAsakura

    HaoAsakura Member

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    I agree with you, Mexican people are certaintly more pissed off at Santa Ana, and they wouldnt be pissed off with USA if the territory buy was just that, if they only said "hey I pay you this" and then the goverment accepted it would be different, but it wasnt that way the US forces occupied the Mexican capital and forced the sold.
     
  5. brndirt1

    brndirt1 Saddle Tramp

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    They didn't force the "sold", they offered them the money and the Mexicans took the bullion and forfeited all claim to the territory they hadn't really colonized anyway. It was mostly desert and Native Americans, not Spanish/Mexican populace. What did they want with it? They couldn't defend it, it wasn't (at the time) worth much to them, and we could have just kept it without paying for it. What would the Mexicans have been able to do about it?

    I'm not saying that the Mexican/American war was a "good deal" for the Mexicans, nor that it was justifiable on the American side, but in the ideals of the time completely within "legal" as per territory changing hands. In fact the US set a precedent by PAYING for the land they had taken! A first in international diplomacy. If they want it back, I suppose we could sell it to them at the 23 million in gold with the six percent interest added since 1858, but that would bankrupt Mexico. They should be pissed at Santa Anna for more than that, he was the worst mistake (or maybe the second) Mexico ever made.

    Getting too FAR away from WW2 here, but the original topic included a "neutral Mexico" premise. That seems to ignore that in May of 1942, the United States of Mexico declared war on the Axis alliance.
     
  6. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    "Getting too FAR away from WW2 here, but the original topic included a "neutral Mexico" premise. That seems to ignore that in May of 1942, the United States of Mexico declared war on the Axis alliance. "

    Did you read ALL of the OP?
     
  7. brndirt1

    brndirt1 Saddle Tramp

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    I don't recall seeing the part that keeps Mexico "neutral", if I missed it I apologize. But, the fact remains we were still getting far afield from WW2 topics by myself and "HaoAsakura", and others.
     
  8. HaoAsakura

    HaoAsakura Member

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    I know but some of these topics are necessary to understand to what point mexican is "neutral", it isnt the same if Mexico just say axis "go right ahead use my territory" than saying "fine we will help you take the us out" if I went offtopic I apologize but I felt it was necessary to some extent, still people you are aware that this is practically USA vs The World?

    Seriously you think USA can take down 2 whole continents? and MAYBE the Latin American continent? USA can only hope for a stalemate in the best case scenario, Axis would completely overwhelm in numbers USA.

    I dont know where this notion came that numbers dont matter anymore thanks to strategy and technology now but it does, number will always be important, you could have a nigh-omnipotent reality warping machine that can completely bend or alter reality itself on a universal scale to your desire, still if you wage a world conquer campaign not even that deux ex machina could save you from getting your ass kicked by whe entire world vs you thanks to the overwhelming numbers.
     
  9. brndirt1

    brndirt1 Saddle Tramp

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    Take down the world has nothing to do with this topic, and is even further off topic than you went before.

    The USA and Mexico relationship has been a complicated one since the middle of the 19th Century, and only became less "strained" with WW2 coming to the fore, it remains a reasonably strong one for the most part.

    Now this next is enlightening, and SIMPLY MUST be taken into account when thinking about our neighbors to the south (I'm an American).

    The Opinions of Many Mexicans

    As the clouds of war darkened, many Mexicans wanted to join on one side or the other. Mexico’s loud communist community first supported Germany while Germany and Russia had a pact, then supported the Allied cause once the Germans invaded Russia in 1941. There was a sizable community of Italian immigrants who supported entry in the war as an Axis power as well. Other Mexicans, disdainful of fascism, supported joining the Allied cause.

    The attitude of many Mexicans was colored by historical grievances with the USA: the loss of Texas and the American west, intervention during the revolution and repeated incursions into Mexican territory caused a lot of resentment. Some Mexicans felt that the United States was not to be trusted. These Mexicans did not know what to think: some felt that they should join the Axis cause against their old antagonist, while others did not want to give the Americans an excuse to invade again and counseled strict neutrality.

    Manuel Ávila Camacho and support for the USA

    In 1940, Mexico elected conservative PRI (Revolutionary Party) candidate Manuel Ávila Camacho. From the start of his term, he decided to stick with the United States. Many of his fellow Mexicans disapproved of his support for their traditional foe to the north and at first they railed against Ávila, but when Germany invaded Russia, many Mexican communists began supporting the president. In December of 1941, when Pearl Harbor was attacked, Mexico was one of the first countries to pledge support and aid, and they severed all diplomatic ties with the Axis powers. At a conference in Rio de Janeiro of Latin American foreign ministers in January of 1942, the Mexican delegation convinced many other countries to follow suit and break ties with the Axis powers.

    Mexico saw immediate rewards for its support. US capital flowed into Mexico, building factories for wartime needs. The US purchased Mexican oil and sent technicians to quickly build up Mexican mining operations for much-needed metals like mercury, zinc, copper and more. The Mexican armed forces were built up with US weapons and training. Loans were made to stabilize and boost industry and security. In addition, thousands of Mexicans – some estimates reach as high as a half-million – joined the US armed forces and fought valiantly in Europe and the Pacific. Many were second or third generation Mexicans who been born and had grown up in the US, while others had been born in Mexico. Citizenship was automatically granted to veterans and after the war thousands settled in their new home.

    Mexico Goes to War

    Mexico had been cool to Germany since the start of the war and hostile after Pearl Harbor. After German submarines began attacking Mexican merchant ships and oil tankers, Mexico formally declared war on the Axis powers in May of 1942. The Mexican navy began actively engaging German vessels and Axis spies in the country were rounded up and arrested. Mexico began to plan to actively join in combat.
     
    See:

    The Unsung Ally: Mexican Involvement in World War Two
     
  10. HaoAsakura

    HaoAsakura Member

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    If I get this right, this is a totally controlled Germany Europe and totally controlled Japan Asia vs USA, it is USA vs 2 entire continents, any idea of the overwhelming numbers?

    Again I dont know where this notion came that numbers are irrelevant in front of technological supremacy and strategy, it is true those 2 factors can compensate for numbers greatly but when the numerical gap is overwhelming it isnt trivial at all, again even if you had a deux ex machina a machine capable of reality warp, bend reality itself on a universal scale to your wish and you went into a campaign to conquer the world you would be horribly defeated despite having totally technologican superiority. Of course USA isnt only 1 dude, isnt going against the world and doesnt have a reality warping machine, but its only an example or metaphor about that numbers DO matter
     
  11. brndirt1

    brndirt1 Saddle Tramp

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    No, I don't think that was the premise of the Original Post. You might wish to start a thread with that as a premise, but I don't believe that was the place this one started nor proposed.
     
    HaoAsakura likes this.
  12. HaoAsakura

    HaoAsakura Member

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    If thats it I apologize, but didnt the OP said is a German Europe and a Japanesse Asia vs USA? If it didnt I apologize
     
  13. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    That was certainly my intent. Apologies if I conveyed it poorly.

    The US, with isolationists in charge, leave the rest of the planet to fend for itself. Mexico, seeing the isolationists have no intention of "sending our boys to fight any foreign wars", decides turning a blind eye to Axis passage through their territory is better than be turned in a vassal state.
     
  14. HaoAsakura

    HaoAsakura Member

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    So then it is Nazi Europe and Japanesse Asia vs USA right?

    I dont see the USA winning in this scenario is a country vs 2 whole continents the difference in numbers is just too vast
     
  15. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    Exactly. The US knew they had to get into the war while they still had allies. "We must hang together or we'll hang separately" is a very American idea.

    I've uploaded material regarding the isolationist/interventionist issue at the "Words of Peace, Words of War" section of the World War II Resources site in my sig. I've added 500+ speeches for '39-'41, with special attention paid to the isolationism debate.
     
  16. HaoAsakura

    HaoAsakura Member

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    A wise choice the US made indeed, no matter how powerful a country is just dont see it soloing 2 entire continents without allies.
     
  17. Biak

    Biak Boy from Illinois Staff Member

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    I've not made it back to this thread for a while and see I've missed a lot of new posts. But what is the continued referral to a "lone U.S." against two entire continents? The off-topic post suppositions that while the rest of the World is being subjugated by the two main antagonists we would be simply sitting here drinking moonshine and smoking our corn-cob pipes. In WWII less than 16 % of the US population served in the Military. And that is the total for the duration of the War, not all in service the entire time. With 131 Million Americans (in 1940) the German/Japan alliance and anyone else they could entice to join them, would be facing a force so overwhelming Sun Tzu would not even had attempted it. And one other point, how many soldiers of the two "conquered continents" would actually fight?
    Could the US take on and defeat two continents of aggressors? Lest they forget, you probably don't want to find out.
     
  18. HaoAsakura

    HaoAsakura Member

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    I can see the US in a stalemate thanks to the sea advantadge in the best case scenario, but I dont see it rejecting the invasion AND taking the fight to them liberating the entire continents, it may be a world superpower but even the OP admited it, it is the USA (a nation) vs 2 entire continents, no nation can take that unless US go nuclear and trigger armagedon.
     
  19. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    The Axis would have the advantage of being the only expansionist countries, so they could draw in the adventurous to their cause. The countries that were in the Allied camp in our timeline would have to decide if they wanted to oppose the Axis alone or in small group, or they wanted to join it as junior partners. Again, pragmatism might come into play.

    And no, the US couldn't defeat two continents of aggressors, especially as their access to imports would be cut-off at will by the Axis.

    The point of this thread, originally, was to posit a scenario where isolationism caused the US to abandon all other countries in the hope that the rest of the world would "just leave us alone." It's the most extreme of the isolationist cases, and thus the one that would have the direst consequences if it had come to pass.
     
  20. Biak

    Biak Boy from Illinois Staff Member

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    Okay I see your point, but what I was looking at is if the US stayed out of the conflict until an imminent invasion was at hand the armaments and supplies we had been exporting would more than likely have been stockpiled here. Pearl Harbor I assume would not have happened. Our Navy would be expanded instead of rebuilding. The US would not have the logistics of trans-ocean travel thus a major savings in both time and cost. While isolating ourselves we would not be complacent but "on notice to the possibility" of War. Hawaii would obviously be lost but the continental US would become so fortified that any attempt (in my mind) would be futile. As for imports during the period, the main items needed, fuel, iron/steel, food etc:. We had been supplying Britain, Russia, China and others which we would not be in this situation. Fuel for the Army, Navy and Air Force was mostly derived from coal and oil which is/was in abundance here. Granted the U.S. could not be totally self-sufficient but could, and I believe would, be able to sustain itself for many years of War. Something that is hard to envision is the vastness of America. Having driven thousands of miles through and around every State West of the Mississippi (and a few to the East), the immensity of the Country would lead to vast storage and staging areas and a major headache for an opposing army.
    I also believe that under threat of a homeland invasion the culture of the American people would revert to the late 1700's and any invader would face not 6 to 10 million soldiers scattered around the World, but 15 to 20 million well trained, rested and supplied troops concentrated within their own border. Along with 40 to 50 million armed Militia (just my guess-a-ment). Another train of thought is; after conquering the World the Axis powers would be hard pressed to contain those who they now dominate while going off to conquer America.
    Having said this, I concede that it would not be impossible to invade the US but the consequences and loses would be extreme for both sides. By the Fifties the U.S. would have long range bombers/fighters (B-29's, B-52's and others) which could be based far inland with the ability to attack Sea forces before they reached their beachheads to supply or resupply. Numerous Fighter aircraft to fend off air assaults. The U.S. built thousands of aircraft, ships, tanks and other armaments while supplying others during WW2 and you have to consider the size the defending Army (the U.S.) would be had we been building for ourselves.
    You're looking at total World domination by the Axis before this would happen. I believe this is interesting but impossible to accomplish. Many have tried throughout history but the truth of the matter is, we as human beings have too many cultural differences to allow ourselves to be "ruled" by others.
     

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