What if Soviet vs. Germany 1939

As we know, After Hitler finished off Czechoslovakia Britain and France allied with Poland and the Soviet signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

What if this never happend.
Soon after the fall of Czechoslovakia, Poland ask for british ally but got refused. Poland then asks the soviet for ally, and the Soviet agree in face of a posible British-French-German allience. The Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement was never signed, and on Septembers 1st, 1939 Hiter launches an invasion to Poland and trigger the 'Slavic versus Aryan war" of Soviet-Poland ally versus Germany.
Since the pact was signed on March-April, The soviet had some time to quickly gear up for war. The west remain neutral in this conflict, but has an army on its borders.
When the war breaks, The Polish army collapses and the soviet are able to reach pretty much the lines of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, before meeting the Germans.

What would be the results of this scenarion?

 

I gamed this one a time or two In 1939 the German army and airforce is still relatively small. In the autum & winter of 1939 a series of tactical defeats can b inflicted on the Soviet forces entering Poland, but the German side has to be carefull as its newly mobilizing reservist are not yet trained for serious combat and there are equipment problems to sort out. The German army also needed to build up is logistics support. Large scale attempts to 'blitz' the Soviet army in the winter wont go very far for those reasons.

By late spring the German mechanized forces could have been reorganized/expanded and the army as a whole built up. Though there would be losses from the winter battles, so the overall strength would probablly be somewhat less than in our time line by May 1940.

The thing is the French had sought a alliance with the USSR earlier in 1939. Anti Communist leaders in the British & French governments & Soviet miscalcualtions nixed that. But, the French forigen policy had been aimed at reviving a coalition against Germany. With Germany & the USSR at each others throats a renewed effort at a 'Soviet alliance' for France is likely. It is not impossible that Germany will find itself in a two front war again by the spring of 1940.

 

Quite simply, the Germans would have been shattered. The Russians suferred so dreadfully against the Finns largely due to the terrain and inhospitable conditions. On the Polish plains, the Soviets would have been in their natural element. The Soviet army was also huge and possessed far more equipment than the Germans.

German tank holdings in 1939 for example consisted overwhelmingly of the Panzer II and Panzer I. You expect these to go up against KV tanks? Also, the Germans already had their hands full with the recent campaign against the Poles and monitoring the French border.

 

That's not at all clear

I disagree. While those factors played a part others were also important. Things like the quality of leadership, poor doctrine, and too much influence on the part of political officers.

 

Shattered is another way of saying destroyed. If you want me to be more specific then maybe I should say they would have lost the war and sued for peace.

Your disagreement is noted, and I will say that we should agree to disagree. I maintain that the reason it took so long for the Russians to crack the Finns is due to terrain and inhospitable conditions, followed by a tenacious, skilled, and prepared Finnish defence. Leadership quality and poor doctrine are definite issues, but secondary to the primary ones above. Note that I said 'largely due', that does not exclude other reasons.

 

The Soviets using unsuported armor attacks alternating with unsupported infantry attacks were a major factor. That's faulty doctrine and shows that at the time the Soviets weren't using combined arms. The Germans were still learning in some ways in 1939 but they had the basic idea. Combined with the purges and indeed probably due at least in part to them this would have hurt the Soviets badly. They may have done well intitially but as soon as they came to a significant barrier like a major river they were going to have serious problems.

 

Do you believe the Germans would have won?

The point is that the terrain and inhospitable conditions acted as a dramatic force multiplier to really comound the difficulties encountered by the Soviets due to their various wealnesses. Even then, that wasn't enough and the Finns lost.

Now in Poland there would be an entirely different environment where despite significant problems the Russians will still soundly defeat the Germand in 1939.

 

Frankly, I'm not sure. What I do know makes me think that certainty either way is unwarrented.

Indeed. But one of the reasons it wasn't enough is that the Soviets started fixing their doctrine. Vs the Germans they don't have the numerical superiority that they did over the Finns and the German doctrine will also act as a force multiplier. Then there are places where Germans can use the terrain as well river lines in particular.

Different yes but as I say your certainty in a Russian victory is rather misplaced. Even a Soviet one is by no means certain.

 

x

 

To generalise; In 1939, in Poland The Soviets had no working communications at unit or formation level. They wouldn't have gained air superiority on a tactical level although they could have exerted some better strategic air influence from Poland than they did from Russia in reality. Also at a sub-unit level, the Germans had well established aufstragtaktik/mission command doctrine, which as a force multiplier in campaigns with clear aims has proven time and time again to be decisive. The good logistic links to Germany from Poland would have meant that Soviet forces would have been destroyed probably more thoroughly than they were up to the German pause before Moscow.

The Soviet advantage in equipment numbers would have been slightly better in late 1939 than in 1941, and without the captured French equipment the Germans would have been short a lot of things, but the end result would have been similar for the Soviet Union.

What might have happened if the western allies were still neutral in 1940 and 41 is that the German advance into Russia would probably have pushed further. If the Western Allies actively supported the Germans at least politically and logistically, if not with actual troops, that advance (coupled with the political isolation) could have been enough to make Russia sue for peace.

If the Soviet Union had started to disintegrate, and particularly if the Ukraine and Belarus had accepted German influence (and the Germans had agreed) in return for 'nominal' independence, then Russia would not have lasted long.

A Japanese attack at the same time could have completed the issue, especially if the western allies and the US had removed or not imposed the trade tariffs on the Japanese that encouraged them to go to war south of China rather than North of it.

All items open to debate

 

IMO, its implausible.

The Poles fought the Soviets for their independence, not twenty years earlier. The Poles were very proud of their new found nation, and were extremely suspicious of Soviet desires on their territory. This is why their was no Soviet-French-British Alliance vs Germany before the war: the Soviets wanted the right to send their armies through Polish territory to engage the Germans in event of war, and neither the British, nor especially the Poles, trusted them enough to allow them to do so.

Secondly, examining Soviet performance vs Finland is extremely misleading: One should also consider the battles at Khalkhin Ghol vs Japan, in Mongolia/Manchuria in 1939, to understand that the Soviets should not be underestimated. Considering that in 1939, certain powerful elements of the German High Command itself was sceptical to the new ideas surrounding the use of armour (Their invasion of Poland was not an example of the new "Blitzkrieg" in its correct sense), and the collapse of the Polish Defence was vastly hastened by the stab in back, when the Soviets entered Polish territory.

 

Their Blitzkrieg tactic were underdeveloped in 1939, so it already casts considerable doubt in their ability to stand against the Soviet Army. Also, most of its famous weaponry, (the Tiger tank, the Messerchimdt 101, etc...) were only used and developed in the later stages of the war. The German army wasn't like its later famous self in 1939. The Soviet Army additionally was one of the hugest armies in the world and it wasn't the Russian Army in WWI. The Soviet Army in 1939 would have defeated the Germans, but not without casualties. Although it would have lost, the German Army was still considerable.
I'm not contradicting myself, I'm just stating that the Germans would have lost, but not without a struggle

 

But the Soviets are also missing some of their more famoues equipment in 29 (such as the T-34). What's more if they are attacking is the moral / motivation of the Soviet soldier likely to be anywhere near what it was when defending thier homes? With their backs to Germay the Germans also aren't going to have a lot of the logistics problems they had in the USSR. The Red army on the otherhand is going to have more log problems. They are also likely to not be on the recieving end of anything like the LL they got historically.

 

What has not been mentioned here Gentlemen (unless I have missed it) was that in 1939 Russia was involved in the battles of Khalkhin Gol in the far east vs the Japanese...
With this additional strain of resources, a true two front war and with out her most trustworthy leader Zhukov (who was fighting the IJA) things could get a bit hairy.

IMO, the Germans would be in worse shape for 2 major reasons.

1. When Germany invaded Soviet Russia, the Wehrmacht was a battle hardened goup which has never seen defeat. All of this was because, Germany had conquered virtually all of Western Europe, Greece, Balkins etc. This would not have been the case had she invaded Poland and immediately went to war with Soviet Russia.

2. Surprise. Germany spent months building up her forces along the Russian border in hopes of launching such a massive attack that Russia would never recover.

Without a battle hardened Wehrmacht and SS launching a surprise attack on Soviet Russia, Germany would have never been able to produce such a shock factor which would have enabled her to destroy thousands of tanks and aircraft within weeks...

Barbarossa was largerly successful because Soviet Russia was unprepared, this would not be the case in this scenario.

I see a stalemate of sorts at least until Russia transfers her reserves from the East and begins her war production.

 

I believe the Russians would be better prepared considering the Winter war with the Finnish and steam rolling poland also the germans have far fewer tanks and planes in the area than the Russians also in order for the blitzkreig to be efective they have to shock the enemy and force them to retreat other wise if they standfast and hold thier positions the offensive will stall and tanks will find themelves surrounded by enemy infantry behind thier main positions I belive this is what happend in toboruk when Rommel attacked the Australians.If I read correctly of course.

 

Periods! My good boy! Use more periods!!!!

 

Periods, periods, we don't need no stinkin' periods!

 

The real question here is how do other European nations react to Poland and the Soviet Union? Would France and Britain see a Polish-Soviet alliance as good or bad? Would the French allow the Soviets into Poland without reacting given their standing treaties with Poland? Does Germany demand French intervention?

 

No, Considering the Poles signed a pack with the French and the British and they would have already decleared war on Germany but for the Soviets to invade Germany will give the British and French cold feet because of thier proximity to the French border and they wernt very freindly towards communism. Also this might draw some attention from the united states to the expansion of communism.

 

I think that the British wouldn´t been "amused" but haven´t done nothing. The French had sent a political note as an protest. And the Germans made an alliance with any Western power to beat Russia.