Soviet Union doesn't sign non aggresion pact

What would've happened if the Soviet Union had not signed a non agression pact with Germany, would the Germans still have invaded Poland?

 

I do believe Hitler would have been forced to consider other means to continue because he would have been facing the chance of a two front war. Even though in 1941 he was not afraid of fighting almost everywhere in 1939 he would not have dared to invade Poland without securing either front first.

 

I suspect Hitler would have been unhappy and made no move against Poland. Latter on in 1939/40 Russia would be busy with their war on Finland. Germany would be watching closely and see Russia pay a heavy price for the war, result by 1940 Hitler would have felt that Russia would not attack him and it was now safe to move against the west.

It would be interesting before Hitler makes his move is to try and do some sort of deal with Great Britain and try and keep them out, while Hitler moves against France. One thing is for sure, Hitler would turn east no latter than 1942.

 

If Russia had managed to take even the Finnish Lapland and then they would have been close to the North Sweden´s iron ore this might have forced the British and French to land in Norway and head for Northern Sweden, which would have led the Germans to attack Sweden and head north...Or would it??

 

Hitler had never planned on attacking the west.
I was thinking, if Hitler never invade Poland and if the Soviet Union did invade Finland, could we see a Germany-France-Britain-Poland alliance against the Soviet Union ?

 

I can not see it myself old AH would have to carry off one heck of a bluff to fool us all, what he could have done I don't know. The SU would not attack the west after there messy war with Finland so may be we would have some sort of stand off?

 

Yes. Perhaps not as quickly as he did but already before the pact with the SU was arranged Hitler had upped the propaganda against Poland that there was little chance of him backing down without losing face. Hitler was a gambler and thought the pact had guaranteed that the Allies wouldn't support Poland in the face of Poland's now inevitable demise. Though the odds would have been against him he was itching to give his new Wehrmacht its first blood.

 

If Hitler did not make the pact with the SU then Britain and France would in that case, and Hitler would not be able to play any tricks after taking the rest of the Czechoslovakia early 1939.

Hitler already had problems making his generals believe in his ideas, he himself wanted to go to war for sure, but facing a definite two-front war by 1939 if attacking Poland, I am sure Hitler would have to think twice instead of going to war like that.

 

If Stalin did not sign with Hitler, more than likely he would have signed with Churchill since the British were also trying to get the Russians to sign a pact with them. So, Hitler would then be forced not to invade Poland and get the Soviet Union involved....at least not yet.

 

Great question!

I think he would,
Germany would conquer and occupy all of Poland itself,
but then be in a real pickle.
Now Germany would have long border with Russia that would require guarding.
I don't think Germany would then have enough to defeat France.

The Generals will claim he's bad for Germany, facing a 2 front war again like in WW1 and therefore should be replaced.

 

Stalin was already in talks with the British and the French from spring 1939 until early aug 1939. Stalin was not getting a deal, not even close, and instead Stalin decided to start talks with Germany. Hitler was ready to promise almost anything. If there would have been no agreement between Stalin and Hitler I am sure in the end there would have been a treaty between the French, British and USSR.

 

I've played out some variations of this on the game board. As weak as the USSR is in 1939 Hitler is in real trouble if Stalin joins the war and cuts off his resources. A effort to focus on conquoring Russia leaves France unmolested and free to rearm and retrain its army and air forces.

With French air fields just 100 km from the Ruhr the Allies dont have to wait untill 1944 for long range escourt fighters. They can begain pounding German industry to rubble in 1941.

A more ineresting variant is to switch the roles of the USSR and France. A fearfull French government comes to agreement with Germany, hoping for time to rebuild its military. Desperate the Brits and the USSR form an alliance and try to save Poland.

 

I can see a situation of war breaking out between Germany and the USSR and that could be over Poland and it could go something like this.

Germany (Hitler) agrees to cool it over that Polish Corridor but gets Poland to agree to hand back Danzig and Germany also agrees to a Mutual Assistance Treaty with Poland. While Poland staving of what they perceive to be an eventual threat by Germany signs Mutual Treaties with both Franch and Britain.

Poland hands back Danzig and as a reward Germany agrees to some obsolete weaponary to be shipped to Poland, and as this goes ahead Poland also signs on more vital Mutual Assistance Treaty this time with Italy. And so Soviet designs on Poland have been curtailed.

Now we come to The Soviets conflict with Finland, with the eventually the USSR being kicked out of the League of Nations. The Winter War does not go well for the Soviets but sheer numbers of troops effect a victory.

I'll add more later

 

Now with a victory over Finland the Soviets are gun ho and now begin to set out to get back Byelorussian and Ukrainian Poland but Poland finds out and so with German help they conceive a bold plan to fake a Soviet Incursion, and this indeed works out magnificantly, Poland protests about the invasion by Soviet Troops, Britain and France issues the Soviet Union an Ultimatum that any further incursions would lead to a declaration of war, this is backed up by Italy and Germany.

Stalin now feeling very ticked of decides to go for broke and indeed launches an invasion of Poland as to restore it back to Mother Russia, and in quick time France, Britain, Germany and Italy declare war on The Soviet Union. But the Soviet forces are in for a nasty surprise as they run into a massed force of German, Polish and Italian troops and are halted, this is quickly expanded with the arrival of three French Armies and the B.E.F.

I'll add more later

 

Check that.
Change of heart.
Re-reading how tentative Hitler felt his hold on power and justified paranoia? of Generals at least,
I change my mind.

Agree with other side. He'd back down, revel in his stomping and keep making demands at least until he could instigate something maybe.
But no, although he would eventually when leaving Britain unresolved, at this point I agree, he wouldn't risk a 2 front war.

 

I see it this way:

Hitler throws the dice anyway. He invades Poland. Hitler would have assumed the position that his opponets would not want war and he could bluff his way to another victory.
Britain and France declare war but neither is in any position to launch an offensive; France is unwilling and Britain lacks the military base to go it alone.
Stalin while he does not like the prospect of Germany taking Poland is in the same boat. Declaring war right off as Germany rolls easily over Poland is a big risk. This is particularly true given that he has just had a rough go with the Japanese and Finns and his army is in a state of transition with the purges, reorgainzation, and what-not.
This leaves Germany faced with a single front and a second possible one that is not currently active (the Soviets). The question is do the Soviets start a war unilaterally with Germany or adopt a safer wait and see attitude while strengthening their Stalin line on their pre-war border? If the Soviets do go to war and Germany crushes their initial offensives the danger for the Soviets is that Germany is now about 300 miles closer to Moscow right from the start and the Soviet army is out of positon, off balance, and getting hacked to pieces one more time in a botched offensive.

 

Good senario, but one thing would happen Non-Agression pact or not the Soviets would have jumped at the confusion and invaded Poland to gain more buffer zone against Germany, This would leave Britain and France with a gianormous headache would they be prepared to deal with Germany first or have to declare on the USSR as well as per Mutual Assistance stipulation and war does come between Germany and the Soviets which side do they come in on because whatever side they choose they are hypocritical.