What if........Hitler never invaded the Soviet Union?

The original Baku fields on the west shore of the Capsian were sabotaged by the Soviets themselves as they left the area in anticipation of the Nazis actually getting to the fields as they did at Maikop and Grozny. Those fields never sent a barrel of oil to the Nazis either. The Soviets transferred their production to the known but non-developed Baku II fields on the east shore of the Caspian. The Baku I area didn't get back into production until post war, when the Soviets themselves repaired the damage they had done when they withdrew.

This is from memory, so I'll have to sort around in my files for the source.

 

This may help, a gallon of light sweet crude weights in at 7 pounds per gallon.

The standard bbl of oil is measured in 42 gallon sizes, not 55 gallon sizes. This 42 gallon corresponds to the 35 imperial gallons originally used to ship salted fish, and made the standard size a LONG time ago, and adopted by the US petroleum industry in the 19th Century when we (America) were setting the standards.

So if you figure a standard barrel of crude is 42 gallons (US), and sweet light crude weighs 7 pounds per, then a barrel equals 294 pounds. A short ton (used in this field is 2000 pounds), an English, or metric ton (not used in the petro-world) is 2,204 pounds). Using those standard petro-numbers, a ton of oil is 6.802 barrels of crude.

To work that backwards, or figure some other slant, do your own math.

 

If Hitler hadn't invaded Russia, he may very well have won the war. Had he concentrated his efforts on his new jet fighters and strengthened his Navy, he could well have beaten Great Brittain. This also supposes that Hitler had also not declared war on the United States. "People called Hitler crazy. He was not crazy, he was stupid. You don't fight a war with Russia and America, you get Russia and America to destroy each other."

Germany had an aircraft carrier that they were working on called the "Graf Zepplin". It was never completed, but was captured by the Russians at the end of the war. Had Germany spent more time building their Navy and finishing the work on their aircraft carrier with the "Bismarck" alongside as an escort, and improved jet technology/jet fighters, he very well could have beaten Great Brittain.

Germany had the technology and manpower to win.

If Hitler had invaded Africa first instead of Poland, it would've given Germany total control over the Med, and given him access to a lot more resources. Then he could've invaded Poland. With an improved Germany Navy with the aircraft carrier Graf Zepplin on active duty with Battleship Bismarck, Germany could have beaten the English.

 

He had no hope of ever having a navy that could stand up to Great Britain's. His jets weren't that far ahead of anyone else's and wouldn't have helped all that much in defeating Great Britain.

Then eventually the US declares war on him.

Not really. The Graf Zepplin could have been about the equal of a CVE as far as plane ops and it certainly wasn't going to operate jets. Bismarck was a lone BB vastly outnumbered by equal and later on superior BBs as well as escorts.

He lacked the manpower, technoloty, production, and resources to win.

How does he get to Africa and what resources? Not at all clear how attacking Africa gives him total control of the Med either.

Even giving him Tirpitz that means the Germans have one poor CV, 2 decent BBs, 2 mediocre BBs, and a handful of escorts vs how many British BBs, CVs and escorts? That's not to mention the French or later American ships.

 

Well said, and to add to the bit about having enough "manpower" I would like to cite the population of major Allied and Axis countries (1939 estimates)

Allies
Soviet Union- 167,300,000
United States- 130,000,000
United Kingdom- 47,700,000
Total- 345,000,000

Axis
Germany- 68,400,000
Japan- 70,600,000
Italy- 43,800,000
Total- 182,800,000

Retreat to the Reich: The German Defeat in France, 1944 by Samuel W. Mitcham

 

All excellent points why Germany was in a difficult position. The economic side must be understood as well. Even with the economic gain from controling Holland, Belgium, and France Germanys finscal outlook was grim. The nazi financial system was severely strained and the benefits from its conquests were 'thin' . By the end of 1940 Germany was unable to pay nations like Italy, Turkey, Sweden, Rumania, or the USSR entirely in cash. Barter transactions were resorted to & this required Germany give up items it badly needed like machine tools, automotive or railroad rolling stock. Even that was insuffcient to cover the costs and debts the nazi government had accrued. Germanies trade partners were still on a cash basis with the rest of the world and were Germany to default on its business or government obligations in 1941 & 1942 the whole nazi edifice would be seen as bankrupt. The nazis were rapidly expending their residual forigen capitol and gold reserves to cover their obligations. Of course this was aggravated by the British blockade which made the critical imports Germany needed increasingly expensive.

 

Add in the rest of the British Commonwealth and things look even worse. If you are looking at manpower India is hardly insignificant. And in the Pacfic China was also a beligerant. Certainly something that kept the Japanese occupied.

 

Well I think if Hitler never invaded the USSR then the USSR would be an Axis power and with its huge army, I think the Axis would've won the war.

 

USSR was never really an Axis power, it simply signed a non-aggression pact. Part of that pact was that Europe was to be split up betwen the two of them, thus the reason for the Soviet invasion of Poland and latter annexations of Estonia, Lativa, and Lithuania.

 

True, true but even if the USSR wasn't an Axis power, the war would've lasted longer because without the USSR pushing the Germans from the east the Allies would've had to work harder by sending more men into Italy and France and the men already fighting there world have to fight harder

 

Hitler was greedy by wanting more land but insted he lost it after russia wanted to keep the land from poland promised by germany before the war. Churchill was fine with this but in return for the poles loss they got some of germany so really he was an idiot.+ have you noticed that all leaders that try to take over the world fail just like hitler and earlier on Napoleon

 

Stalin appears to have been willing to give exceptional trade terms to Germany in exchange for cooperation in the Soviet political objectives he listed in November 1940, (Finland, Bulgaria, Turkey, etc.) This and Stalin’s subsequent behaviour in China and Korea strongly suggest that considerable Russian material assistance to Germany would have been forthcoming, if by doing so the Russians could better see Germany and the west kill each other.

 

Ya I've seen that opinion. Also seen opinions that Stalins price for the materials to Germany was too high. Machine tools and finished industrial goods are what is usually refered to. But, I dont recall any hard numbers given by either side. Tooze claimed for too many industrial machines & similar items heading east from Germany?

Sounds like a question worth digging into.

 

Don't forget the emperor of Japan. He wanted to take complete control of Asia

 

While Hirohito had some desire to make the lives of his subjects less "stressful", it wasn't he who was behind the control of Asia desires. One must remember that until the Japanese came out of their isolationist mode with the Mejii Restoration, and their diving wholeheartedly into the "industrial revolution", they were fully self supporting in terms of foodstuffs. With the possible exceptions of "luxury" food items from mainland China.

After that time, an increase in birth rates (live births) ensued which made them into a food importing nation by the mid 1920s when Hirohito came to the throne. With the land they had gained in the Russo-Japanese war (1904-05) there was a large portion of their food grains imported rather than home-grown. But the Korean grain didn't add enough to their expanding need, and it just got worse after WW1.

That aside, the whole issue of Hirohito is a tangled can of snakes, and difficult to judge from not only a "western mindset", but one complicated by the lens of hindsight. The Imperial Japanese Army and Navy had held veto power over the formation of cabinets since 1900, and it must be remembered that from the 1930s on, the military clique held and controlled almost all political power in Japan, and pursued policies that eventually led Japan to launch the second Sino-Japanese War as well as WW2. That said, primary sources, such as a General Sugiyama's memos and the diaries of both Kido and Konoe, describe in detail the "informal meetings" Hirohito had with his chiefs of staff and ministers.

These documents show that the Emperor was kept informed of most if not all main military operations and that he frequently questioned his senior staff, asking for (but not demanding) changes. This is the position which Herbert Bix, in his book Hirohito And The Making of Modern Japan, truly expands upon. In a few cases Hirohito was presented with a fait accompli, and since it had gone in Japan’s favor he endorsed rather than condemned them.

But to say Hirohito himself wanted to take complete control of Asia may be a bit of a stretch, but it may be true that he did little to discourage his military from going down that path. And as Emperor, he bore the ultimate responsibility for their doing so. His not being tried as a "war criminal" was more one of expediency, combined with the benefit his retaining the throne in a subservient position was to the American occupation.

 

Even if Germans didn't invade in 1941 the question still stands on whether Stalin would not attack.
So we have 3 possibilities:
a) Stalin attacks in 1941 - 1942
Same thing ... only germans suffer some more initial damage , possibly to Romanian oil fields.
b) Stalin attacks 1943
If germans are not planning Barbarossa then they are probably fighting their only enemy - Britain.
With big part of their army demobilized and helping with the industry.
Therefore improved quantity and quality of bombers and fighters and u boats... maybe starting regular strategic bombing of English industry.
After 2 years Brits may decide to make an armistice , maybe not...
Then the Russians hit with 2 years of T34 and KV1 + KV2 stockpiled....
c) Stalin never attacks (least probable, practically impossible)
Germans force British to make piece.
Atomic weapons ... Cold war ... perestroika in both Nazi germany and USSR... leading to total nuclear annihilation....

 

No one (sigh!) is playing the "What if" scenerio I would like to see explored:

What if:
1. The Russian front never did happen, the Axis men and materials were never wasted there and thus were fully deployable against a western sea invasion;
2. The Axis continued to build up men and develop and produce materials to much the same degree in the interim:
3. The USA still entered the war on both fronts using the same deployment timing;

Then what would have been the Allied soldier's experience of an invasion of Europe?
I have to believe a Normandy invasion would have been suicide.

Agreed, with Sicily being an essential first step again. But:
a) facing some additional 4 million Axis (combined fatalities alone)
and the 3.3 million taken prisoner on the eastern front,
not to mention the wounded lost from further action... (and these were the cream of the crop...)
From: Statistics and Numbers
"Total in Wehrmacht Service 1939-1945: 17,893,200[SNIP] ...
In Heer Service, Total 1939-1945: 13,000,000+ [SNIP]
In Luftwaffe Service, Total 1939-1945: 3,400,000+ [SNIP]
In Waffen-SS Service, Total: 1,000,000+ ... "

b) facing the sum total of Axis tank production:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_armored_fighting_vehicle_production_during_World_War_II

For the front line soldier it would have been a grim prospect indeed.
I think it would be a very different world we would now be living in.

Explore this "what if" scenario please!
What could have won the war for the Allies in these circumstances?

Anti "tank" aircraft and weapon production would have to have been paramount.
Bomber commands would have had to focus on "shock and awe" shrapnel shell strikes against troop concentrations...

Your turn for input... in the spirit of "What if?"... Tnx

 

Has anyone written a fictional novel on the "What If" of a western front where there had never been a Russian Front?
(Makes me shiver to think of it!)

- I once read a fictional novel that explored the "What if" of an American ground invasion of Japan. (The allies might have liked to keep the Russians out.) "The Burning Mountain" by Alfred Coppel - sure gave you something to think about, in that it was clearly based on someone with years of knowledge and experience of the Japanese. (Not the drivel titled "MacArthur's War: A Novel of the Invasion of Japan")

- Recommended to anyone interested - the brutality of the American experience really hit hard.

 

If Germany does not invade the Soviet Union, then Hitler will sign a pact with Stalin in early 1941 largely on Stalin’s terms. Russia will invade and annex Finland shortly thereafter, and settle the Turkish Straights question to Stalin’s satisfaction, also in 1941. Stalin will keep his options open and play both sides of the field. On one hand, he will significantly assist the Axis powers with supplies, raw materials and equipment. (For instance, once production is ramped up he may export T-34’s to countries like Italy and Japan). As the US buildup in Europe gathers strength, so too will Russia’s assistance to the Axis powers. Japan in particular may benefit tremendously from this. On the other side of the ledger, Stalin will continue to grow and modernize the Red Army so that if war with Germany and/or Japan becomes desirable he can smash Axis forces and quickly seize objective territories deep behind the front line.

Allied strategy will focus on establishing sea communications and air superiority over the continent, concentrating attacks on Hitler’s oil industries and communications. The first invasions will be in the peripheries, such as North Africa, Spain, or perhaps Norway. The US Navy might commit hoards of carriers (drawn from the Pacific) to ensure the protection of invasion forces. An invasion of France would not come before 1945 at the earliest. The atomic bomb will not be used against Germany while the Luftwaffe has a credible bomber deterrent force, for fear of gas counterattacks against cities in England. The A-Bomb will be used if and when the Luftwaffe is tamed.

Generally speaking the closer Germany comes to collapse the more likely that Stalin will switch sides and attack. Stalin may destroy the Japanese Empire in this manner around 1944/1946 while still remaining associated with Germany. If Germany conducts a successful defense, then Stalin will not attack Hitler. Rather, he will continue to prop Germany up, to blackmail the Axis Powers for more concessions, exhaust the British Empire, and teach the arrogant Americans a lesson about the limits to their influence in the new world order.

Germany’s strategy will be to wear the Allies down in battle and cause the new (post-FDR) administration in Washington to accept a compromise peace. In 1941 the Germans will try Raeder’s Mediterranean strategy, perhaps taking Gibraltar and Alexandria. Communications across Russia to Japan will as much as double the effectiveness of the Japanese contribution to the Axis war. The German U-boat offensive will stall in 1943, but will again gather momentum after 1944 as the Type XXI/XXIII boats enter service. Mass V-1 attacks from late 1944 onwards. By 1945, the German navy will be employing pressure mines against British ports en mass, and thereby threatening to bring the UK economy off the rails. The Luftwaffe will remain a significant force into 1946, and by mid 1945 will have a WMD capability (nerve gas in the German case) that in some ways will be operationally superior to the Allied atomic bomb. With no war in the east, the majority of Germany’s army divisions will be at least partly motorized by 1945, and the number of armoured divisions may reach 75. Limitations to Germany’s oil reserves may restrict their operational flexibility, though Russia might also largely alleviate shortages. Hitler will die of natural causes sometime after mid-1945. This may or may not signal a significant period of diplomacy between all the powers.
Summary – Germany not attacking Russia is the nightmare scenario for Democracy. Absolutely nothing good for us could come of it. At worst, the West might have had to accept German domination of Europe, Russian domination of Asia, and the continuation of a militarized Japanese Empire. At best, the Axis will be defeated but Russia will enter the Cold War in a much, much stronger position.

 

I must nitpick a little bit.

You can easily shave off 30-40 million people from the manpower of the US. Blacks, indians and Asians werent welcomed into the Army.

There was always a significant amount of seniors living in Great Britain, you can see this in the amount of colonials they used.

Germany's recruting grounds would have shot up in 1940 when you consider how many ethnically German areas they occupied and conscripted from.