Turkey shoots down Russian jet

In regards to Turkey funding Daesh. Is the government actually buying the oil? Or is it supporting the purchases? Or is it a matter of ignoring it? Or is it actually a mattero corrupt officials ignoring laws to allow it? Turkey is also buying Kurdish oil from what I've read (much to the onsternation of the Iraqi government). I don't know the answer to the questions above by the way. It could even be a combination of some of them. Erdogan's rise to power has certainly come at an inconvenient time and he was clever enough to move against the military first to prevent a repeat of the previous attempts by Islamist to sieze power.

 

Hello all.

I have been following this thread from the beginning and can't help but grin. Russia is bad and Turkey is good. Some things never change.

Unfortunately, after the facts came out it became apparent that Turkeys response was simply crazy. While publicly stating NATOs solidarity with the nation in reality it is far from the truth.

What is truly shocking is that Russia and Turkey have had very friendly relations for the last few decades. The reason Russians are so angry is because (as Putin put it) Turkey has always been considered a friendly state and such an act can only be described as a stab in the back. The reason the 2 bombers (not fighters) were flying unescorted is because no one could have ever imagined such a response.

As for Turkey's association with radicals...
http://sunnyxoxa.blogspot.ru/2015/11/bloody-turks-bilal-erdogan-isis.html?m=1

Let's also not forget about the Muslim Brotherhood connection.

Turkey made a blunder of the ages and Russia will not forget this. Consequences to follow will be swift and severe.

 

I think it is a mistake to consider Russia an enemy/threat etc. Putin himself has publicly stated that Russia does not consider the US an enemy but will continue to respond to what it views as aggressive anti Russian policy.

To claim that Russia is "targeting" civilians is also incorrect. I would very much (along with many I'm sure) would like to see proof of such a allegation.

As for progress? Some has been made, more importantly it's steadily gaining ground. A Syrian military base/airport has been liberated after a 2 year siege by ISIS relieving several hundred desperate Syrian troops. Aleppo and Palmyra are next. The big question is what happens after ISIS and all of the jihadists are kicked out of Syria.

May I recommend straying from main stream media?

 

Must be if you said so

 

Ouch...! Bags not being Turkey at the moment...

But what of the NATO connection? What can Putin/Russia do that wont cross the line with other NATO countries?

 

Honestly, after Ukraine it feels like Russia could get away with quite a lot. Sanctions have been tried and failed. I doubt Obama wants his last year in office to be at cold/hot war with Russia. Hillary doesn't want to enter a presidency at war with Russia. The EU has a host of problems and appears indecisive.

I'd say 90% chance that if Russia bombed Turkey without putting boots on the ground. There would be sanctions and NATO politicians would tweet about how mean and bad Putin was. Maybe shuffle some troops around.

 

A very good question. To my knowledge NATO is a defensive alliance. On paper, article 5 can only be enforced
If one of the members comes under attack. In this scenario it was Turkey who attacked Russia not the other way around. It is precisely for this reason that NATO backed away from Turkey and so did the US. For every action there is a reaction

In front of a camera Stoltenber announced NATOs solidarity (to keep up appearances) behind closed doors it was another matter.

Article is in Russian but easily translated using Google. Unfortunately I'm short on time to do it myself.

http://m.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2015/11/24/n_7930505.shtml

 

The PKK has been around since the late 1970's when they started as a Marxist-Leninist separatist group. Virtually all Turkish attacks on the PKK over the years have been in response to PKK terror bombings, assasinations, attacks on Turkish police and military installations. Like most terror groups they use thuggery to keep the civilian population in areas they operate, in line. You either support them, pretend to support them or you're targeted. I actually operated with Turkish forces hunting down PKK insurgents in the late 1980's. They're bad guys, in the evil way not the militarily effective way. The average Kurdish civilian has no use for them. They've been hard to stomp out because they constantly morph and rebase. They've operated or are operating, out of southern Turkey, Northern Iraq and Syria, crossing the borders to strike Turkey and Turkey responds. When the group originally formed (1978) it was not in response to the Turks destroying Kurdish villages. Destruction of Kurdish villages since the two sides have been at war/in conflict is related to rooting out PKK safe havens, which they most often occupy despite the wishes of the local populace, no different than saying because we attack a village occupied by ISIS, we are attacking the civilians that are essentially trapped there by the occupying bad guys, we're attacking innocent Syrians.

Not the best source but they do get this right, from Wikipedia:

"between 1992 and 1995. To deprive the rebels of a logistical base of operations the military carried out de-forestation of the countryside and destroyed over 3,000 Kurdish villages, causing at least 2 million refugees. Most of these villages were evacuated, but other villages were burned, bombed, or shelled by government forces, and several entire villages were obliterated from the air. While some villages were destroyed or evacuated, many villages were brought to the side of the Turkish government, which offered salaries to local farmers and shepherds to join the Village Guards, which would prevent the PKK from operating in these villages, while villages which refused were evacuated by the military. These tactics managed to drive the rebels from the cities and villages into the mountains, although they still often launched reprisals on pro-government villages, which included attacks on civilians."

They weren't random attacks on Kurdish villages, it was a military operation to root out a terrorist organization, the PKK, and to protect its citizens, including Kurds from them. Most of the refugees were resettled, many migrated to Istanbul, which by the way has the largest single Kurdish community in the world, estimated at 4 million.

From a 1999 news article:

"Kurds v. Kurds
In 1994, when I last visited Gorumlu--a settlement tucked into the base of a mountain on the Turkish side of the Iraqi border--the village showed signs of support for the rebels, and the area was often the scene of firefights with the army. But today the local Kurds are on the government payroll. The village guards in Gorumlu had joined the widespread program of rural pacification, the army strategy introduced in 1985. In this area the guards were especially valuable because they knew the PKK trails along the border; they had served as scouts for soldiers in several incursions into Iraq in search of rebel base camps.

Because of their decision, the villagers were able to keep their homes.The state was giving them weapons, bullets, U.S.-made Motorola radios, and a salary of $250 a month--far more than they could make as farmers. With their help, the Turkish army had driven the guerrillas deep into the mountains, and clashes in the village had become less frequent. But Gorumlu's switchover was not without cost.

The PKK, many of whose local members had been recruited from Gorumlu, views both the guards and their families as Turkish collaborators, and claims that both are legitimate military targets. Soon after one army incursion into nearby Iraq, the guerrillas launched a coordinated attack against the village and the nearby army garrison, resulting in civilian deaths.

During the battle, the army commander told me he had intercepted a radio transmission, which he said came from a PKK superior, urging his fighters to "hit the little mice as well as the big mice." According to the Turkish officer and several villagers, four children were killed and several adults were injured when the PKK threw a grenade through a window of one of the houses. For its part, the PKK has denied responsibility for the attack, blaming instead the Kontra Gerilla--death squads they say are linked to the Turkish security forces."

The Peshmerga are a loose coalition of two large and numerous smaller factions, the news reports usually state Turkey attacked Kurdish Peshmerga, but if you dig into the details, in virtually every case it was PKK forces operating in conjunction with Peshmerga forces. Turkey did not betray us. They warned us that if Saddam was toppled, it could lead to a power vacuum that could destabilize the region. They made last ditch diplomatic efforts to get the Saddam regime to comply with US demands. In the end their Parliment, Grand National Assembly of Turkey voted against the proposal to allow basing of US forces in Turkey for the purposes of invading Iraq, because the war would endanger its nation and its citizens.
I have a friend that was with an SF team that served as advisors/liasons to Kurds you mention, and he's told me several times that his Kurds warned them (the Americans) to be careful which Kurds they assisted, because they didn't want to arm the PKK. All Kurds were NOT our allies as you assert.

As for the YPG, (btw, the YPG are not just Kurds they also include Arabs and Turkmen) read these little tidbits:

"In October 2015,. According to Amnesty International said YPG had driven thousands of civilians from northern Syria and destroyed their homes in retaliation for perceived links to the ISIS, YPG fighters had threatened some civilians by telling them that if they failed to leave, YPG would have the U.S. coalition bomb their homes"

Sounds eerily like what you were bashing the Turks for doing.


"WASHINGTON DC – The United States has expressed concern about allegations of human rights violations by the People’s Protection Units (YPG) against non-Kurdish minorities in northern Syria."

"Amnesty International published a report Monday claiming that YPG forces displaced non-Kurdish residents in some villages and demolished their houses. It said the acts were “amounting to war crimes.”

So now it appears its not simply a military tactic, but the actions are based upon ethnicity. Be careful of unintended consequences.

 

Just to add some oil to the blazing confusion does anyone remember the huge pressure US state under the Bush administration put on the EEC to accept Turkey as a full member even if it failed to satisfy basic requirements?

The situation is as mixed as it can be and, as usual once the guns are out, it's not likely the moderates will prevail. Actually firing on Russian aircraft (BTW using US supplied missiles and planes) was a dangerous escalation. But no doubt Putin was pushing it. What is amazing is the oil trade, no way such a thing can happen on an economically significant scale while staying undetected, so what's happening there?

 

As Nato has no forces to support Turkey, I don't see the relevance of this question .

 

Shooting down the Russian plane coupled with "moderates" shooting on the defenseless pilots as they descended from the burning wreck, has just complicated Turkey's geo-political ambitions. I wouldn't be surprised if the Kurds greeted the Turkish military with some new Russian hardware

 

This is an axaggeration : Russia will not invade Turkey, its reaction will be limited to economic reprisals .

 

Except for his usual big talk Putin will do nothing at all! Why? Very simple, there is nothing he can do, it's like bluffing all your way up to the jackpot with a pair of spades and then being called! Hot air from the Kremlin!

 

I have long suspected the very Marxist PKK has been armed by Moscow through third parties, a la Charley Wilson's technique. Ocalan was a frequent visitor and exile guest of Moscow before his imprisonment. YPG of Rojava (Qamishlo, Hasakah, Kobane) with Dwekh Nawsha and some Syrian (anti Assad militia) Brigades have received logistic support adequate to push out and liberate considerable territory as they maneuver towards the Raqqa isolation. The old silk road trails are open and a decent amount of supplies are getting through. What a confusing situation with very little credible information about.

Glad to see Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov acting with restraint so far. Wonder what Stasi Ankara / Istanbul operatives are up to, that is a whole new story. Building on the legacy of Beria and Andropov I'm sure. Yike.

 

And lucky for the World this is true so far. Now for the back pedaling and "face saving". I guess the strategic location is enough for UN and NATO to let Turkey continue with their ethnic cleansing of Kurds and their culture and various other Religious or Ethnic minorities? Or is it the beach resorts and their attractive pricing for holiday?

This day we are truly Thankful that we live a fair distance from the M.E. God Speed to all those in Europe on the New Front and truly, terribly sorry for any of the recent casualties.


Sloniksp, "Shooting down the Russian plane coupled with "moderates" shooting on the defenseless pilots as they descended from the burning wreck, has just complicated Turkey's geo-political ambitions. I wouldn't be surprised if the Kurds greeted the Turkish military with some new Russian hardware " I fully agree. Good to have your viewpoint here.

 

Concur. Great take LWD!

 

Agree completely. I'm also sure that Russia will have a few nasty surprises up their sleeve as well. I for one would not be surprised if Russia began arming the Kurds for example nor would I be surprised if Russia intensified her bombing campaign alongside the Turkish border or even recognized The Armenian massacre as a genocide...

 

There is quite a lot that Russia can do. We will all witness it unfold on our TV screens. For starters Russia will bomb anything and everything coming in and out of Turkey. Moskva cruiser now stationed in Latakia with orders to shoot at anything on border posing a threat from the air. This is quite significant considering that no additional permission is needed from Kremlin in such matters.

A Turkish convoy heading into Syria has already been hit for example. This will continue but Russia will not invade. There is no need.

 

This statement is untrue, the vast majority of Kurds in Turkey are not being targeted by government military forces. It is not an ethnic clensing, it is focussed on a small minority of Kurds that make up and support the PKK and similar terrorist groups, not on the Kurdish population in general.There have even been polls taken where up to 90% of Turkish Kurds do not support the PKK. One of the problems is that in areas they control they enforce their Marxist-Leninist, athiestic philosophy and many Kurds are religious, the majority being Sunni Muslim, but a moderate form thereof and retaining many secular traditions, customs and having greater tolerence of religious minorities. I'm not claiming the Turks hands are clean, there have been excesses and atrocities, as occur in all conflicts, by all nations, but these are ancillary to their intent, and not the focus an approved tactic as it is for the PKK.

I know most people here don't read regional news from that area and rely primarily on western news sources, so here's an article from The Diplomacy pakistan News, giving a regional perspective:

Note: I don't necessarily ascribe to all the points/positions made in this article. I provide it only as a counter-point to the picture as painted by the main stream western media, the truth lies somewhere in between. When I went to school for Military Intelligence Analysis you were taught, gather all possible data, from as many points of view as possible. Where the different data agrees, chances are you have identified facts. Take the remaining data and view it through the appropriate historical, cultural, religious, filters and you will get a fair understanding of the actual situation. Set aside that data that seems counter-intuitive, don't totally dismiss it based upon its source or perspective, but don't give it much weight unless additional information at some point supports its veracity. Understand all sources are colored by the individuals perceptions and agendas. Local sources are better than distant sources, not necessarily in the factual data reported, but in the way the data is perceived on the ground where you'll be operating. Perception is reality in many cases.

 

Armageddon!