If hitler began operation Barbarossa at his initial proposed date

Considering there were already significant supply problems by September your estimates appear very optomistic. Again it wasn't just the mud it was the state of the railways.

 

The Germans were never planning to figth for Moscow,the assumption was that the war would be won before september and that the mobile divisions could advance to the A-A line before the winter,without fighting ;thus in september the dies were already cast :no possibility to finish the war in 1941 ,and this was not due to unexpected logistical problems,they were expected ,but due to the Red Army having immediately numerical superiority .
Even after the fall of Moscow in october(very improbable ),the Germans would not be able to advance further :the A-A line would be unattainable and a campaign in 1942 would be inevitable .
The logisticks could not supply 13 divisions extra ,why do you think the operational reserves were engaged only later ?

 

It was from Wikipedia.

 

Makes two of us.

 

If im not mistaken the Germans had crossed the Moscow-Volga canal Which would secure the Northern pincer and a pincer to the South East was making good progress towards the Oka river.
With the added campaign time here and the extra German forces against lesser Soviet forces fighting in better conditions the advance would go much further.
The benefit of getting it surrounded would result in making it much harder for supplies to pass through Moscow (as a main rail and transport hub) to get else where in the USSR.
It would make Leningrad’s position far more vulnerable.
Which if they could hold the positions around Moscow would give the Germans a much better chance of gaining a surrender of Leningrad later.

 

A faster advance towards what would be in effect an end position (Moscow) for the campaign year would mean a much better chance for logistics to be improved.
And another advantage would be greater infantry numbers available when the problems with infantry numbers began in September.

 

The hammering they took above was in 1943 when the war was very much against the Axis.
In 1941 and 42 the Italians proved to be of much better use.

Sources

Faldella, Emilio. L'Italia nella seconda guerra mondiale. Cappelli Bologna 1959 (Italian)
Jowett, Philip S. The Italian Army 1940–45 (1): Europe 1940–1943. Osprey, Oxford - New York, 2000.
Jowett, Philip. The Italian Army 1940–45 (3): Italy 1943–45. Osprey, New York, 2001
Mack Smith, Denis. Le guerre del duce. Laterza, Bari 1979 (Italian)
Messe, Giovanni. La guerra al fronte Russo. Il Corpo di Spedizione Italian (CSIR). Milano 1947 (Italian)
Italian Ministry of Defence. Stato Maggiore Esercito. Ufficio Storico. Le operazioni del CSIR e dell’ARMIR dal Giugno 1941 all’ottobre del 1942. Roma, 1977 (Italian)
Italian Ministry of Defence. Stato Maggiore Esercito. Ufficio Storico. L’8° Armata Italiana nella seconda battaglia difensiva del Don. Roma, 1977 (Italian)
Italian Ministry of Defence. Stato Maggiore Esercito. Ufficio Storico. L’Italia nella relazione ufficiale sovietica sulla seconda guerra mondiale. Roma, 1978 (Italian)

 

I agree obvious the AA line was well out of reach.
The fall of Moscow isn’t likely either but it's surrounding is.
This would mean consolidation at a static position at the start of October.
Which would greatly improve the logistics situation as would the superior weather and greater time for rail lines to be laid as I pointed out in an earlier post.
In regard to your last point Army Group Centre Used half its reserves in September alone.

 

Sorry but I don't see this at all. A faster advance means more strain on the logistics system. This is going to mean increased wear and tear on it and will also likely slow down the rail conversions. Then there's the question of how the infantry numbers are going to increase?

 

You are mistaken.

See:

http://www.dean.usma.edu/history/web03/atlases/ww2 europe/EuropeanTheaterGIF/WWIIEurope20.gif

The map of their furthest advance by Dec. 5th put them on the banks of but not across in the north, and not very close to the banks of the river to the south. Supplied by the US Military Academy map atlas online source.

 

As you said supply problems didn’t become that bad till September which is when the complete surrounding of Moscow shall take place resulting in and stationary position and allowing supplies to catch up greatly.
As for the infantry I mentioned the 5 infantry divisions that would other wise be in the Balkans and the infantry divisions from Army Group South which can be replaced with Italians.

 

No you are.

By November 28, the German 7th Panzer Division had seized a bridgehead across the Moscow-Volga Canal — the last major obstacle before Moscow — and stood less than 35 kilometers from the Kremlin.

Glantz, chapter 6, sub-ch. "To the Gates", pp. 80ff.

 

You don't seem to understand. If you start the invasion sooner then the supply problems start sooner as well. If you move faster and/or add troops they occure even earlier.

The problem from what I've read was not that they were lacking in infantry although they certainly could have used more but that the infantry couldn't keep up with the panzers. Adding more infantry doesn't ease and indeed may make the logistics and transport situation even worse.

 

Several stops in campaigning in particular in September allowed the infantry to keep pace.
With a final stop date (some thing never achieved in our time line) being October as that will be the furthest advance (Moscow) that will allow a full two months for any slow moving formation to be put in place before the Soviet counter attack.
Current Logistical levels will allow the supply of a further 13 divisions but what would be a struggle to supply is winter clothing however in real life Hitler neglected that anyway in favour of ammunition.

 

We know it wasnt logistical problems that stopped the German advance in the USSR but the massive Soviet counter attack launched on December 5th 1941.

 

It was a combination of weather, terrain, outnumbered, supply problems, the fact the panzer units kept out stripping there infantry and therefore stopping there advances, giving the Russians time to repair the line and so on.. So overall it was a combination of things not just that single event.

 

No it was definatly one single even.
The advance was still going on as of the 4th of December.
It was only the Soviet counter attack that ended the advance.

 

Allowed them to catch up to some extent and allowed the panzers to resupply to some extent. But they started lagging again pretty quickly and the supply situation never got close to the at start one.

I'm not exactly sure what you are saying here.

Argument by fiat doesn't work here.