What if Japan decided not to attack china in 1937(NO OIL EMBARGO)

I actually posed that scenario as a What-If on other military history boards that cover the period. That is, the Germans and US go to war over the Apria Harbor incident. That incident itself would have almost certainly been won by the US who had a substancial advantage in shorter range firepower over the Germans.
Historically, a typhoon blew in and the one British ship present just made it out to sea. The US and German squadrons (3 ships each) were wrecked mostly by grounding.