What if Stalin attacked first?

True. Gentlemen do not discuss facts, however. It looks like we are no good gentlemen.
What do you want to say? That RKKA was unable to knock Wehrmacht and the III Reich by a surprise attack? What I am trying to say all the time is, that it was a tremendous force with very aggressive plans in 1941. And that my gut feeling is that it would suffice, all factors taken into consideration.
It is just a feeling based on my knowledge of facts.
If your gut feeling is, that RKKA in 1941 was just a heavily armed cretin and Wehrmacht was invincible, at least faced with the said cretin, so be it. Incidentally, it was also Hitler´s feeling at that time, but for different reasons. A bit later he said (to the best of my memory) to Mussolini, something like ."If I had known how many tanks the Soviets had I would have not attack" or something in that vein.

 

I think they would of been a great deal of blood shed on the red armies side there tanks where eathier to huge or tiny double turrnet at the most they would of gotten mabe 100 miles or less then Hitler would be in a even better postion to attack and mabe the allies might of looked down on it probly not but just mabe

 

TD, you forget that the Wehrmach was positioned and prepared only for attack. Their retreat would have probably not been less chaotic than the Soviet became, particularly when you look at the number of Soviet tanks, airplanes and artillery vs. German.

It looks like TD knows a lot about the strength of RKKA in 1941, upon which the predictions are based.
Leaving such opinions unopposed (and here we are talking about a very probable scenario, which could easily have happened) we practically bury the thread.
RKKA was in 1941 much better prepared for war than in 1943-4-5 when it sped westwards (I know, Wehrmacht was by then a shade of itself) but still…

My guess is that the first real fight would have been fought between the British and Soviet aviation. Soviet pilots were much inferior than the British ones. Would Stalin have committed his 1 million parachutes to try to cross the Channel? Would he have used some of his well over 3000 amphibious tanks ?

 

Actual forces in place were about even in terms of Men (about 3.2 million each), and heavily weighted towards the CCCP in terms of tanks & aircraft.

However.

1) German pilots and plane were better, which negates to an extent the numerical supremacy. Also, air/ground co-ordination was not an area the CCCP was known to excell in - the Germany had learned from their mistakes in Poland & perfected a system in France. Plus, losses are generally higher for an attacking force.

2) Soviet tanks (while good) tended to break down, and the Soviet logistical trail seemed to be rather lacking (based on their performance in Poland). Plus, The Germans had good AT weaponry & tactics.

3) I'm not sure that the Soviet attack would have quite the impact that the well co-ordinated Blitzkrieg would, and I'm fairly sure that German generals would be quicker to respond effectively - always assuming Hitler stays out of it!

Overall, I would certainly refute:
"the first real fight would have been fought between the British and Soviet aviation"

The joker in the pack, obviouly, is Hitler.
It is well within possibility that he would have one of his moments of 'inspired generalship' and order his troops to do something daft.
Like advance.

I reckon the CCCP would give the Germans a heck of a good fight, and with their large resources could/would wear them down in time...
I'm sure I've said this before.

 

Right, not an entirely new subject....
However, some but´s:

1. The Soviet plans of mobilization would have multiplied their manpower quickly,
2. The large part of Luftwaffe would probably have become destroyed on the ground (which was the only action the Soviet pilots have been seriously prepaed for),
3. The German tanks tended to break down too (did´t Guderian have to leave ½ of his tanks on the way to Austrian border in 1938?). Besides, in the conditions of an allout Soviet attack, the Germans would have some problems with logistics. By that time the Soviet had strengthened their logistics, not least, after experiences in Poland (the operation they did not take seriously at all, and after Finland). They even had portable oil pipelines to be laid as the troops moved ahead…
4. Sure, German officers were better than the Soviet ones. But here, again, the very magnitude of the Soviet attack might turn Wehrmacht into a mob, which nobody could steer effectively. The Soviet fist in 1941 was much, much greater than the German one. And there was much less space to withdraw to and regroup, before it would be over.
I am just thinking loud. I don´t think, one should overestimate an army which was weaker and not prepared for an attack in any way whatsoever. Plus – the immediate destruction of Rumanian oil-wells by the Soviets (not a great feat in 1941).
And conc. Hitler: Can you imagine HIM not intervening and giving anyone freee reins?
Plus - imagine the freedom, with which the British would enjoy bombing Germany in the meantime, before they would realize who was Stalin´s real enemy.

 

ive done a little research into this and found that the red army did play out varuois scenarios in jan 1941 as to the best way to invade germany, whereupon they favoured the southern venture i.e a strike out of the lvov area towards the baltic in pommerania. rather than a broad front assault.

my only problem with such an attack would be the element of surprise.
dont forget the russians were forewarned of the german assault but chose to ignore it, im sure the same would happen if the russians planned such an invasion, surely the germans would be forewarned but would they chose to ignore it or act accordingly.

 

Thanks, Cheeky,
There were indeed two variants and the exercises were conducted in the beginning of January 1941. The southern variant was much better and was chosen. I have seen copies of the conclusions from the exercises. A very interesting reading – again, only available in Russian, I´m afraid.

As to the surprise question:
in June, by far the most of the hardware was already in the Lvov salient. The Germans were aware of Soviet presence there but, just like Stalin, they didn´t for a moment think that an invasion was around the corner. So, they were forewarned.
They had their recon flights, but most of the troops were well hidden and masked. And – with espionage, the most important element is always living spies.
The Germans had zero spies in the RKKA. Nobody in a position to tell them what was going on. The German idea of RKKA was that it was hardly able to defend anything. The idea of Soviet attack must have seemed crazy for them. Not once, having all results of recon flights, did Hitler or any of his senior officers consider the possibility of being attacked: a mental block + lack of good sources on the other side.

(Soviets were much better off in this respect: spies in the border area and in Berlin. However, there also seemed to be a mental block in Stalin´s head: he refused to believe in a German attack, able to thwart his preparations for war, under way since the end of 1920s).

 

I have an actual outline of the chosen attack (variant on 15 may 1941) from a book "Tank Pogrom" by Vladimir Beshanov, publ. in 2004. Not a very good quality, but try to look at it.

 

As you see, the Soviets were very much aware of the German concentration in the north part of the border and the plan, if executed, was surrounding the main German forces there (Groups Center and Nord). Group South, by far the weakest of all, was to be taken frontally.
The first part of the war would thus have encircled the majority of German armed forces, before the further march westwards.

Please, take a look at the far south: there, you see an immediate attack on Ploesti and ALL German sources of oil. This was not a well-defended part of the border (the plan included an attack of special forces with parachutes as well as from the Donau Flotilla).

 

I´ve just found a text which pretty much summarizes much of what I´ve been trying to say.
The only "bu" being, that RKKA was actually planning to strike in the north, too, in order to disorganize a possible attack of its right flank.

http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v20/v20n6p59_Michaels.html

A much shorter text, not free of mistakes, but still readable:

http://www.heretical.com/miscella/14days.html

Enjoy!

 

my main problem was the red army was totally untested against an enemy like the germans.

the command structure of the red army and the capabilties of its commanders untested, also stalin was more liable to interfere in 1941 than he was post 1942, which could have played into the hands of the germans.

i certainly do not think the german army would be rolled up in a few weeks or turned into a mob.

 

You do have some good points.
The German army was more experienced in real war conditions.
But RKKA was not just a bunch of reservists and poorly trained idiots.
Remember, that in very difficult conditions (especially logistically) in Mongolia, Zhukov defeated the Japanese at Khalchin Ghol. Many commanders had served in Finland. Soviet military academies were producing large numbers of well-trained officers (previously the same academies had trained many of later senior German officers).
Besides, training of attack and maneouvers where armor, aviation and rifle regiments worked together were very intense and taken very seriously. One could get one´s rank taken away in case of neglect, or worse.
So, i think, RKKA in 1941 was certainly well prepared for the job.
The barefoot army that entered Berlin in 1945 had almost no officers or soldiers, who had been RKKAs backbone in 1941: a professional, extremely well-equipped, motivated and well- tuned body, a fruit of prolonged preparations.

My own Grandfather, a Soviet tank captain in Ukraine in 1941, later officer in IDF (a rather efficient organization), described the level of training and quality of equipment (quantity needs no comment!) very positively. Knowing later, what he hadn´t known at that time, he was in no doubt as to the result, if the Soviets had attacked first.

 

Besides, cheeky.
If the Soviets could be turned into a mob, only because they were not prepared to defend but only to attack, why do you think that the Germans would react differently. They were also prepared for attack only. It was the only option.
Do you really think, Germans are smarter than Russians? If the training was about the same and the Russians had severalfold stronger firepower, more equipment etc. I really don´t see any reasons why the Germans should have behaved any different.

 

Undoubtetly, the red army would have been in a bether position, had they attacked first.

I think howevere that it would have been a close match, and much would have depended on which stategical/tactical options both the red army and the wehrmacht would take.
It could possibly finish like in Berlin in 1945 but it could also finish like in Tannenberg in 1914.


A negative point for the red army would probably that it's soldiers would not have fought with a similar motivation as they really did in 1941-1945.
Remember, soviet soldiers were not as much ready to sacrifice for communism and Stalin than for mother Russia.
In case of soviet first strike the whole"Holy war against foreign invader"element would have lacked on the russian side.

 

1. Soviet propaganda was to show the beginning of the war as a tracherous attack of the Germans on the peaceful Soviet Union. It was the version to be served both to the Soviet soldiers and the world opinion (which was preapred to swallow it raw).

Besides, the NKVD was ever ready to boost motivation of the Soviet soldier. What do you think? That the average Soviet Ivan was thinking of his poor mother Russia, going into attack? Nope. He was always more afraid of NKVD behind his neck than of the Germans. That did the trick in 1943-5, and would have - in 1941.

2. German army depended on oil, right?
One of the first aims of the Soviet offensive was Ploesti et ces environs. Right? Even German tanks and planes could not run on water.

Tannenberg was an example of a modern, well trained army meeting, a less well trained, not very well prepared or disciplined one. One can´t compare. I can´t.

 

my whole point is the red army was inexperienced compared to the german army.

the wehrmacht was a battle hardened well trained army. u cannot substitute experience with training, the red army was untested against such a force. i dont believe the japanese army of 1939 to be anywhere near as strong as the german army of 1941.

Dont forget the germans had some very capable commanders as well. and at this stage had much more influence over hitler than at latter stages of the war.

it is a true a well planned and executed attacking force will have the advantage, but how long could the russians maintain the momentum, and what if things didnt go 2 plan then what?

 

Don´t you think I have been poring over it? I am not a bolshevik. Not even a communist. Far from.
Knowing, what communism was like, I am happy the plan has been thwarted.

You are right: training is not as good as battle.
Then I´ll ask you: how much training or battle in defence did average Wehrmacht soldier have?
Your answer should be, I guess, close to zero. This was also a largely new army which went from one aggressive war to another. And when hit with a sufficient force - who knows how it would behave? Nobody knew in 1941. Later, much later, they learned by doing how to defend themselves, but so did the Soviets. They were learning simultaneously.

I also think that a proportion of 4 : 1 in tanks and 2: 1 in airplanes (only in border area) was more than enough to counterweight evt. inferior training. As I said, traininig was a very serious business in RKKA.

 

i understand where you are comming from, i just cant see that the red army would defeat the wehrmacht with the ease that it suggested thats all

 

Cheeky,
Most Israelis share my dislike, not to say hate, towards CCCP. So, what I am saying is not a question of sympathy. It´s more a question of knowledge of the facts on the ground and respect.

You, the children of Western Europe and of USA, my impression is, you like the German arms, German things etc. It´s very colorful: "Hetzer!" , "Tiger!", swastika, the songs!.
Russians are not so colorful. My impression is even, that some of you despise the Russians in the depth of your hearts.

Isn´t it a sort of racism?

Having shown you all the facts, I ´ll just ask: why shouldn´t the Russians have beaten the idiotic nazi regime already in 1941? Never before or after were they better prepared? It doesn´t help to repeat "I just can´t imagine!".

 

hmm.. you assume too much about me?

i do not have a hatred of all things russians, neither do i have a romantic view of an all conquering german army either.

i look at the facts.. the russians were unproven in terms of their offensive capablities, they ceratinly been out thought and out manouvred by the finns the in 1939-40.

yes they had a superiority in men and material.. but as you should know as in life size dosnt matter it how you use it that counts!

yes the germans were uproven in defence.. but so they were in the winter of 41-42 and then totally exhausted and unprepared for a soviet offensive, even then they were not rolled over or turned into a mob!